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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 871 MW (11.4%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vienna).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 871 MW (11.4%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Austria came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 164 MW, against average demand of 6,804 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 23% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.4%
Bias-1.8%
Hours within 5%89%
Worst miss871 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-119 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 871 MW (11.4%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 6,780 MW, reported 7,651 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Austria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:007,844 MW7,962 MW
5 Nov, 15:007,962 MW8,168 MW
5 Nov, 16:008,294 MW8,379 MW
5 Nov, 17:008,542 MW8,391 MW
5 Nov, 18:008,657 MW8,372 MW
5 Nov, 19:008,444 MW8,074 MW
5 Nov, 20:007,992 MW7,613 MW
5 Nov, 21:007,451 MW7,092 MW
5 Nov, 22:007,115 MW6,788 MW
5 Nov, 23:006,666 MW6,337 MW
6 Nov, 00:006,296 MW6,090 MW
6 Nov, 01:006,040 MW5,842 MW
6 Nov, 02:005,975 MW5,775 MW
6 Nov, 03:005,964 MW5,738 MW
6 Nov, 04:006,149 MW5,974 MW
6 Nov, 05:006,846 MW6,598 MW
6 Nov, 06:007,966 MW7,623 MW
6 Nov, 07:008,608 MW8,311 MW
6 Nov, 08:008,648 MW8,329 MW
6 Nov, 09:008,432 MW8,081 MW
6 Nov, 10:008,313 MW7,854 MW
6 Nov, 11:008,212 MW7,683 MW
6 Nov, 12:007,909 MW7,366 MW
6 Nov, 13:007,775 MW7,349 MW
6 Nov, 14:007,808 MW7,126 MW
6 Nov, 15:008,002 MW7,275 MW
6 Nov, 16:008,191 MW7,627 MW
6 Nov, 17:008,488 MW7,862 MW
6 Nov, 18:008,512 MW7,970 MW
6 Nov, 19:008,256 MW7,819 MW
6 Nov, 20:007,726 MW7,394 MW
6 Nov, 21:007,184 MW6,853 MW
6 Nov, 22:006,911 MW6,596 MW
6 Nov, 23:006,451 MW6,148 MW
7 Nov, 00:005,946 MW5,817 MW
7 Nov, 01:005,678 MW5,544 MW
7 Nov, 02:005,586 MW5,414 MW
7 Nov, 03:005,522 MW5,314 MW
7 Nov, 04:005,585 MW5,340 MW
7 Nov, 05:005,836 MW5,630 MW
7 Nov, 06:006,264 MW6,038 MW
7 Nov, 07:006,601 MW6,425 MW
7 Nov, 08:006,805 MW6,695 MW
7 Nov, 09:006,837 MW6,718 MW
7 Nov, 10:006,818 MW6,641 MW
7 Nov, 11:006,731 MW6,506 MW
7 Nov, 12:006,510 MW6,299 MW
7 Nov, 13:006,494 MW6,236 MW
7 Nov, 14:006,431 MW6,196 MW
7 Nov, 15:006,551 MW6,388 MW
7 Nov, 16:006,842 MW6,684 MW
7 Nov, 17:007,147 MW6,965 MW
7 Nov, 18:007,174 MW7,022 MW
7 Nov, 19:006,984 MW6,861 MW
7 Nov, 20:006,699 MW6,528 MW
7 Nov, 21:006,361 MW6,160 MW
7 Nov, 22:006,231 MW6,045 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,867 MW5,724 MW
8 Nov, 00:005,556 MW5,497 MW
8 Nov, 01:005,299 MW5,208 MW
8 Nov, 02:005,206 MW5,098 MW
8 Nov, 03:005,172 MW5,026 MW
8 Nov, 04:005,197 MW5,045 MW
8 Nov, 05:005,309 MW5,193 MW
8 Nov, 06:005,579 MW5,461 MW
8 Nov, 07:005,864 MW5,803 MW
8 Nov, 08:006,010 MW6,029 MW
8 Nov, 09:006,081 MW6,132 MW
8 Nov, 10:006,122 MW6,175 MW
8 Nov, 11:006,168 MW6,189 MW
8 Nov, 12:006,023 MW6,125 MW
8 Nov, 13:005,940 MW6,086 MW
8 Nov, 14:005,929 MW5,999 MW
8 Nov, 15:006,068 MW6,045 MW
8 Nov, 16:006,393 MW6,331 MW
8 Nov, 17:006,763 MW6,644 MW
8 Nov, 18:006,967 MW6,840 MW
8 Nov, 19:006,852 MW6,762 MW
8 Nov, 20:006,593 MW6,502 MW
8 Nov, 21:006,281 MW6,178 MW
8 Nov, 22:006,162 MW6,063 MW
8 Nov, 23:005,867 MW5,824 MW
9 Nov, 00:005,988 MW6,028 MW
9 Nov, 01:005,749 MW5,794 MW
9 Nov, 02:005,662 MW5,726 MW
9 Nov, 03:005,644 MW5,704 MW
9 Nov, 04:005,887 MW5,914 MW
9 Nov, 05:006,614 MW6,611 MW
9 Nov, 06:007,748 MW7,765 MW
9 Nov, 07:008,483 MW8,469 MW
9 Nov, 08:008,725 MW8,587 MW
9 Nov, 09:008,655 MW8,392 MW
9 Nov, 10:008,621 MW8,286 MW
9 Nov, 11:008,503 MW8,143 MW
9 Nov, 12:008,406 MW7,955 MW
9 Nov, 13:008,384 MW7,926 MW
9 Nov, 14:008,329 MW7,947 MW
9 Nov, 15:008,414 MW8,134 MW
9 Nov, 16:008,587 MW8,399 MW
9 Nov, 17:008,758 MW8,554 MW
9 Nov, 18:008,723 MW8,551 MW
9 Nov, 19:008,431 MW8,269 MW
9 Nov, 20:007,989 MW7,810 MW
9 Nov, 21:007,458 MW7,272 MW
9 Nov, 22:007,135 MW6,956 MW
9 Nov, 23:006,657 MW6,499 MW
10 Nov, 00:006,253 MW6,032 MW
10 Nov, 01:005,975 MW5,797 MW
10 Nov, 02:005,887 MW5,730 MW
10 Nov, 03:005,869 MW5,708 MW
10 Nov, 04:006,082 MW5,919 MW
10 Nov, 05:006,765 MW6,618 MW
10 Nov, 06:007,911 MW7,779 MW
10 Nov, 07:008,715 MW8,483 MW
10 Nov, 08:009,023 MW8,598 MW
10 Nov, 09:008,962 MW8,399 MW
10 Nov, 10:009,005 MW8,290 MW
10 Nov, 11:008,960 MW8,149 MW
10 Nov, 12:008,818 MW7,959 MW
10 Nov, 13:008,766 MW7,927 MW
10 Nov, 14:008,692 MW7,948 MW
10 Nov, 15:008,704 MW8,142 MW
10 Nov, 16:008,781 MW8,413 MW
10 Nov, 17:008,918 MW8,570 MW
10 Nov, 18:008,867 MW8,568 MW
10 Nov, 19:008,563 MW8,287 MW
10 Nov, 20:008,087 MW7,823 MW
10 Nov, 21:007,546 MW7,278 MW
10 Nov, 22:007,198 MW6,961 MW
10 Nov, 23:006,709 MW6,501 MW
11 Nov, 00:006,325 MW6,012 MW
11 Nov, 01:006,062 MW5,770 MW
11 Nov, 02:006,002 MW5,684 MW
11 Nov, 03:005,983 MW5,663 MW
11 Nov, 04:006,172 MW5,906 MW
11 Nov, 05:006,823 MW6,656 MW
11 Nov, 06:007,928 MW7,830 MW
11 Nov, 07:008,627 MW8,581 MW
11 Nov, 08:008,817 MW8,818 MW
11 Nov, 09:008,812 MW8,737 MW
11 Nov, 10:008,753 MW8,699 MW
11 Nov, 11:008,598 MW8,576 MW
11 Nov, 12:008,481 MW8,471 MW
11 Nov, 13:008,471 MW8,441 MW
11 Nov, 14:008,421 MW8,388 MW
11 Nov, 15:008,486 MW8,499 MW
11 Nov, 16:008,609 MW8,691 MW
11 Nov, 17:008,752 MW8,861 MW
11 Nov, 18:008,659 MW8,825 MW
11 Nov, 19:008,358 MW8,525 MW
11 Nov, 20:007,891 MW8,064 MW
11 Nov, 21:007,334 MW7,518 MW
11 Nov, 22:007,034 MW7,185 MW
11 Nov, 23:006,556 MW6,696 MW
12 Nov, 00:006,227 MW6,289 MW
12 Nov, 01:005,962 MW6,012 MW
12 Nov, 02:005,959 MW5,924 MW
12 Nov, 03:005,920 MW5,903 MW
12 Nov, 04:006,101 MW6,116 MW
12 Nov, 05:006,716 MW6,817 MW
12 Nov, 06:007,845 MW7,999 MW
12 Nov, 07:008,529 MW8,755 MW
12 Nov, 08:008,719 MW9,068 MW
12 Nov, 09:008,649 MW9,074 MW
12 Nov, 10:008,601 MW9,108 MW
12 Nov, 11:008,480 MW9,055 MW
12 Nov, 12:008,301 MW8,907 MW
12 Nov, 13:008,297 MW8,842 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_at_2026,
  title = {{Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/}
}

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