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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CAISO was off by 8.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 61% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 10,108 MW (38.9%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 10:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for CAISO was off by 8.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 61% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 10,108 MW (38.9%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 10:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CAISO came 41 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 2,349 MW, against average demand of 25,313 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 22% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error8.7%
Bias-8.0%
Hours within 5%61%
Worst miss10,108 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-2,146 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 10,108 MW (38.9%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 10:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 15,899 MW, reported 26,007 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
CAISO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CAISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CAISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:0022,112 MW21,505 MW
5 Nov, 06:0023,503 MW23,252 MW
5 Nov, 07:0025,425 MW23,520 MW
5 Nov, 08:0027,173 MW22,198 MW
5 Nov, 09:0027,785 MW20,454 MW
5 Nov, 10:0027,573 MW19,252 MW
5 Nov, 11:0027,287 MW18,796 MW
5 Nov, 12:0028,265 MW19,179 MW
5 Nov, 13:0027,868 MW20,133 MW
5 Nov, 14:0027,194 MW22,147 MW
5 Nov, 15:0025,558 MW24,568 MW
5 Nov, 16:0026,722 MW26,796 MW
5 Nov, 17:0027,720 MW27,974 MW
5 Nov, 18:0027,210 MW27,480 MW
5 Nov, 19:0026,542 MW26,618 MW
5 Nov, 20:0025,871 MW25,787 MW
5 Nov, 21:0025,328 MW25,109 MW
5 Nov, 22:0024,016 MW23,854 MW
5 Nov, 23:0022,769 MW22,588 MW
6 Nov, 00:0022,367 MW22,146 MW
6 Nov, 01:0021,610 MW21,257 MW
6 Nov, 02:0021,235 MW20,399 MW
6 Nov, 03:0020,686 MW20,060 MW
6 Nov, 04:0020,990 MW20,326 MW
6 Nov, 05:0022,014 MW21,513 MW
6 Nov, 06:0023,266 MW22,997 MW
6 Nov, 07:0024,970 MW23,208 MW
6 Nov, 08:0026,897 MW22,079 MW
6 Nov, 09:0028,809 MW20,632 MW
6 Nov, 10:0028,434 MW19,655 MW
6 Nov, 11:0028,074 MW19,300 MW
6 Nov, 12:0027,638 MW19,658 MW
6 Nov, 13:0028,038 MW20,806 MW
6 Nov, 14:0027,643 MW22,776 MW
6 Nov, 15:0025,913 MW25,278 MW
6 Nov, 16:0025,935 MW27,329 MW
6 Nov, 17:0027,548 MW28,175 MW
6 Nov, 18:0027,049 MW27,531 MW
6 Nov, 19:0026,388 MW26,631 MW
6 Nov, 20:0025,419 MW25,799 MW
6 Nov, 21:0024,985 MW25,138 MW
6 Nov, 22:0023,969 MW23,950 MW
6 Nov, 23:0022,898 MW22,648 MW
7 Nov, 00:0022,524 MW21,817 MW
7 Nov, 01:0021,610 MW20,808 MW
7 Nov, 02:0021,146 MW19,990 MW
7 Nov, 03:0020,425 MW19,553 MW
7 Nov, 04:0020,020 MW19,450 MW
7 Nov, 05:0020,604 MW19,854 MW
7 Nov, 06:0021,033 MW20,356 MW
7 Nov, 07:0022,544 MW19,870 MW
7 Nov, 08:0024,963 MW18,797 MW
7 Nov, 09:0025,857 MW17,423 MW
7 Nov, 10:0026,031 MW16,552 MW
7 Nov, 11:0025,137 MW16,189 MW
7 Nov, 12:0024,950 MW16,589 MW
7 Nov, 13:0024,585 MW17,920 MW
7 Nov, 14:0024,062 MW19,912 MW
7 Nov, 15:0023,908 MW22,733 MW
7 Nov, 16:0025,083 MW25,043 MW
7 Nov, 17:0025,788 MW26,500 MW
7 Nov, 18:0025,603 MW26,058 MW
7 Nov, 19:0024,879 MW25,159 MW
7 Nov, 20:0024,355 MW24,384 MW
7 Nov, 21:0024,052 MW23,927 MW
7 Nov, 22:0023,092 MW22,787 MW
7 Nov, 23:0022,230 MW21,706 MW
8 Nov, 00:0021,712 MW21,213 MW
8 Nov, 01:0020,747 MW20,274 MW
8 Nov, 02:0019,844 MW19,444 MW
8 Nov, 03:0019,179 MW18,968 MW
8 Nov, 04:0019,059 MW18,726 MW
8 Nov, 05:0019,367 MW18,953 MW
8 Nov, 06:0019,817 MW19,199 MW
8 Nov, 07:0022,164 MW18,773 MW
8 Nov, 08:0025,932 MW17,822 MW
8 Nov, 09:0026,444 MW16,654 MW
8 Nov, 10:0026,007 MW15,899 MW
8 Nov, 11:0025,206 MW15,634 MW
8 Nov, 12:0023,629 MW16,236 MW
8 Nov, 13:0022,995 MW17,636 MW
8 Nov, 14:0023,007 MW19,856 MW
8 Nov, 15:0023,907 MW22,826 MW
8 Nov, 16:0025,546 MW25,331 MW
8 Nov, 17:0026,754 MW26,866 MW
8 Nov, 18:0026,395 MW26,545 MW
8 Nov, 19:0025,719 MW25,635 MW
8 Nov, 20:0024,973 MW24,873 MW
8 Nov, 21:0024,298 MW24,230 MW
8 Nov, 22:0023,020 MW22,878 MW
8 Nov, 23:0021,838 MW21,480 MW
9 Nov, 00:0021,341 MW21,037 MW
9 Nov, 01:0020,341 MW20,131 MW
9 Nov, 02:0019,734 MW19,355 MW
9 Nov, 03:0020,017 MW19,087 MW
9 Nov, 04:0020,200 MW19,582 MW
9 Nov, 05:0021,208 MW20,882 MW
9 Nov, 06:0022,653 MW22,578 MW
9 Nov, 07:0025,375 MW23,189 MW
9 Nov, 08:0029,407 MW22,270 MW
9 Nov, 09:0029,977 MW21,045 MW
9 Nov, 10:0029,132 MW20,355 MW
9 Nov, 11:0028,023 MW20,153 MW
9 Nov, 12:0027,352 MW20,745 MW
9 Nov, 13:0027,591 MW22,117 MW
9 Nov, 14:0027,623 MW24,107 MW
9 Nov, 15:0027,053 MW26,684 MW
9 Nov, 16:0027,925 MW28,767 MW
9 Nov, 17:0028,918 MW29,899 MW
9 Nov, 18:0028,268 MW28,872 MW
9 Nov, 19:0027,347 MW27,716 MW
9 Nov, 20:0026,373 MW26,860 MW
9 Nov, 21:0025,561 MW25,979 MW
9 Nov, 22:0024,062 MW24,485 MW
9 Nov, 23:0022,720 MW22,852 MW
10 Nov, 00:0022,332 MW22,312 MW
10 Nov, 01:0021,117 MW21,231 MW
10 Nov, 02:0020,393 MW20,442 MW
10 Nov, 03:0020,205 MW20,074 MW
10 Nov, 04:0020,326 MW20,371 MW
10 Nov, 05:0021,392 MW21,491 MW
10 Nov, 06:0023,258 MW22,925 MW
10 Nov, 07:0025,698 MW23,346 MW
10 Nov, 08:0028,207 MW22,461 MW
10 Nov, 09:0028,989 MW21,361 MW
10 Nov, 10:0028,369 MW20,552 MW
10 Nov, 11:0027,340 MW20,252 MW
10 Nov, 12:0026,754 MW20,717 MW
10 Nov, 13:0026,647 MW22,307 MW
10 Nov, 14:0027,644 MW24,575 MW
10 Nov, 15:0027,228 MW27,289 MW
10 Nov, 16:0028,223 MW29,462 MW
10 Nov, 17:0029,199 MW30,365 MW
10 Nov, 18:0028,354 MW29,408 MW
10 Nov, 19:0027,364 MW28,414 MW
10 Nov, 20:0026,370 MW27,524 MW
10 Nov, 21:0025,664 MW26,719 MW
10 Nov, 22:0024,336 MW25,133 MW
10 Nov, 23:0022,893 MW23,529 MW
11 Nov, 00:0022,708 MW21,919 MW
11 Nov, 01:0021,683 MW20,898 MW
11 Nov, 02:0020,954 MW20,057 MW
11 Nov, 03:0020,703 MW19,627 MW
11 Nov, 04:0020,804 MW19,852 MW
11 Nov, 05:0021,551 MW20,987 MW
11 Nov, 06:0022,765 MW22,500 MW
11 Nov, 07:0024,954 MW22,839 MW
11 Nov, 08:0027,774 MW21,853 MW
11 Nov, 09:0027,863 MW20,632 MW
11 Nov, 10:0027,305 MW19,801 MW
11 Nov, 11:0026,619 MW19,469 MW
11 Nov, 12:0026,305 MW19,894 MW
11 Nov, 13:0027,155 MW21,329 MW
11 Nov, 14:0027,569 MW23,649 MW
11 Nov, 15:0026,780 MW26,278 MW
11 Nov, 16:0027,763 MW28,335 MW
11 Nov, 17:0028,698 MW29,323 MW
11 Nov, 18:0028,032 MW28,465 MW
11 Nov, 19:0027,142 MW27,444 MW
11 Nov, 20:0026,182 MW26,550 MW
11 Nov, 21:0025,382 MW25,754 MW
11 Nov, 22:0023,889 MW24,334 MW
11 Nov, 23:0022,452 MW22,819 MW
12 Nov, 00:0022,048 MW21,836 MW
12 Nov, 01:0021,120 MW20,874 MW
12 Nov, 02:0020,741 MW20,123 MW
12 Nov, 03:0020,491 MW19,759 MW
12 Nov, 04:0020,565 MW20,066 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/caiso/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/caiso/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_caiso_2026,
  title = {{CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/caiso/}
}

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