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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 62% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 62% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SOCO came 35 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,370 MW, against average demand of 22,611 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 96% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

718 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error6.2%
Bias+5.9%
Hours within 5%62%
Worst miss19,751 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,246 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 24,972 MW, reported 44,723 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
SOCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 5 Nov, 07:006 Nov, 07:007 Nov, 07:008 Nov, 07:009 Nov, 07:0010 Nov, 07:0011 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 07:0024,136 MW25,022 MW
5 Nov, 08:0024,238 MW25,663 MW
5 Nov, 09:0024,350 MW26,469 MW
5 Nov, 10:0025,285 MW27,366 MW
5 Nov, 11:0026,089 MW28,171 MW
5 Nov, 12:0026,867 MW29,031 MW
5 Nov, 13:0027,353 MW29,518 MW
5 Nov, 14:0027,823 MW29,629 MW
5 Nov, 15:0028,306 MW29,507 MW
5 Nov, 16:0028,391 MW28,891 MW
5 Nov, 17:0028,302 MW28,768 MW
5 Nov, 18:0027,509 MW27,994 MW
5 Nov, 19:0026,837 MW27,211 MW
5 Nov, 20:0025,705 MW26,053 MW
5 Nov, 21:0024,329 MW24,605 MW
5 Nov, 22:0022,708 MW23,074 MW
5 Nov, 23:0020,930 MW21,834 MW
6 Nov, 00:0020,589 MW20,956 MW
6 Nov, 01:0019,994 MW20,350 MW
6 Nov, 02:0019,638 MW20,163 MW
6 Nov, 03:0019,661 MW20,702 MW
6 Nov, 04:0020,324 MW21,646 MW
6 Nov, 05:0021,817 MW22,888 MW
6 Nov, 06:0022,674 MW23,931 MW
6 Nov, 07:0022,894 MW24,677 MW
6 Nov, 08:0022,844 MW25,322 MW
6 Nov, 09:0023,108 MW26,039 MW
6 Nov, 10:0023,639 MW26,626 MW
6 Nov, 11:0024,171 MW27,240 MW
6 Nov, 12:0024,710 MW27,648 MW
6 Nov, 13:0024,740 MW28,006 MW
6 Nov, 14:0024,795 MW28,108 MW
6 Nov, 15:0025,373 MW27,827 MW
6 Nov, 16:0025,665 MW27,367 MW
6 Nov, 17:0025,589 MW26,371 MW
6 Nov, 18:0024,814 MW25,521 MW
6 Nov, 19:0023,935 MW24,732 MW
6 Nov, 20:0023,105 MW23,836 MW
6 Nov, 21:0022,086 MW23,019 MW
6 Nov, 22:0021,147 MW22,007 MW
6 Nov, 23:0020,190 MW21,207 MW
7 Nov, 00:0019,267 MW19,662 MW
7 Nov, 01:0018,850 MW19,192 MW
7 Nov, 02:0018,460 MW18,860 MW
7 Nov, 03:0018,472 MW19,243 MW
7 Nov, 04:0018,951 MW20,057 MW
7 Nov, 05:0019,589 MW20,802 MW
7 Nov, 06:0020,001 MW21,547 MW
7 Nov, 07:0019,527 MW22,292 MW
7 Nov, 08:009,441 MW23,037 MW
7 Nov, 09:0019,738 MW23,335 MW
7 Nov, 10:0020,010 MW23,584 MW
7 Nov, 11:0019,941 MW23,597 MW
7 Nov, 12:0020,020 MW23,633 MW
7 Nov, 13:0020,395 MW23,385 MW
7 Nov, 14:0020,775 MW23,385 MW
7 Nov, 15:0021,914 MW23,087 MW
7 Nov, 16:0022,940 MW23,236 MW
7 Nov, 17:0023,438 MW23,931 MW
7 Nov, 18:0023,133 MW23,733 MW
7 Nov, 19:0022,556 MW23,435 MW
7 Nov, 20:0022,108 MW22,867 MW
7 Nov, 21:0021,362 MW22,129 MW
7 Nov, 22:0020,679 MW21,221 MW
7 Nov, 23:0019,965 MW20,483 MW
8 Nov, 00:0019,405 MW19,729 MW
8 Nov, 01:0019,021 MW19,364 MW
8 Nov, 02:0018,895 MW19,473 MW
8 Nov, 03:0019,088 MW19,958 MW
8 Nov, 04:0019,341 MW21,100 MW
8 Nov, 05:0019,992 MW22,143 MW
8 Nov, 06:0020,365 MW23,087 MW
8 Nov, 07:0020,130 MW23,981 MW
8 Nov, 08:0019,864 MW24,031 MW
8 Nov, 09:0015,588 MW23,703 MW
8 Nov, 10:0019,677 MW23,172 MW
8 Nov, 11:0019,687 MW22,897 MW
8 Nov, 12:0019,955 MW22,734 MW
8 Nov, 13:0019,966 MW22,594 MW
8 Nov, 14:0020,378 MW22,494 MW
8 Nov, 15:0022,006 MW22,577 MW
8 Nov, 16:0023,353 MW23,227 MW
8 Nov, 17:0024,358 MW24,081 MW
8 Nov, 18:0024,242 MW24,528 MW
8 Nov, 19:0023,728 MW24,130 MW
8 Nov, 20:0022,927 MW23,435 MW
8 Nov, 21:0021,869 MW22,491 MW
8 Nov, 22:0020,883 MW21,547 MW
8 Nov, 23:0020,258 MW20,951 MW
9 Nov, 00:0019,709 MW20,067 MW
9 Nov, 01:0019,590 MW20,082 MW
9 Nov, 02:0019,704 MW20,367 MW
9 Nov, 03:0020,225 MW21,389 MW
9 Nov, 04:0021,574 MW22,938 MW
9 Nov, 05:0023,799 MW25,521 MW
9 Nov, 06:0024,977 MW27,260 MW
9 Nov, 07:0023,611 MW27,459 MW
9 Nov, 08:0022,609 MW26,813 MW
9 Nov, 09:0022,367 MW25,968 MW
9 Nov, 10:0022,089 MW25,372 MW
9 Nov, 11:0021,951 MW24,798 MW
9 Nov, 12:0021,978 MW24,672 MW
9 Nov, 13:0021,964 MW24,581 MW
9 Nov, 14:0022,222 MW24,420 MW
9 Nov, 15:0023,529 MW24,628 MW
9 Nov, 16:0024,807 MW25,056 MW
9 Nov, 17:0025,667 MW26,033 MW
9 Nov, 18:0025,449 MW26,202 MW
9 Nov, 19:0024,908 MW26,017 MW
9 Nov, 20:0024,076 MW25,268 MW
9 Nov, 21:0022,995 MW24,230 MW
9 Nov, 22:0021,875 MW23,037 MW
9 Nov, 23:0020,922 MW22,491 MW
10 Nov, 00:0020,489 MW21,757 MW
10 Nov, 01:0020,312 MW21,425 MW
10 Nov, 02:0020,404 MW21,388 MW
10 Nov, 03:0020,817 MW22,052 MW
10 Nov, 04:0021,983 MW23,528 MW
10 Nov, 05:0024,167 MW25,595 MW
10 Nov, 06:0025,136 MW26,628 MW
10 Nov, 07:0023,803 MW26,776 MW
10 Nov, 08:0022,799 MW26,130 MW
10 Nov, 09:0022,229 MW25,539 MW
10 Nov, 10:0022,018 MW24,820 MW
10 Nov, 11:0022,051 MW24,598 MW
10 Nov, 12:0022,283 MW24,727 MW
10 Nov, 13:0022,388 MW24,401 MW
10 Nov, 14:0022,665 MW24,251 MW
10 Nov, 15:0023,806 MW24,304 MW
10 Nov, 16:0024,969 MW24,509 MW
10 Nov, 17:0025,645 MW25,894 MW
10 Nov, 18:0025,308 MW25,705 MW
10 Nov, 19:0024,820 MW25,516 MW
10 Nov, 20:0024,046 MW24,853 MW
10 Nov, 21:0022,803 MW24,049 MW
10 Nov, 22:0021,726 MW22,866 MW
10 Nov, 23:0020,646 MW22,062 MW
11 Nov, 00:0020,266 MW20,388 MW
11 Nov, 01:0020,007 MW20,196 MW
11 Nov, 02:0019,950 MW20,177 MW
11 Nov, 03:0020,365 MW20,530 MW
11 Nov, 04:0021,354 MW21,608 MW
11 Nov, 05:0023,076 MW23,749 MW
11 Nov, 06:0023,982 MW25,201 MW
11 Nov, 07:0023,327 MW25,342 MW
11 Nov, 08:0022,850 MW25,060 MW
11 Nov, 09:0022,686 MW24,873 MW
11 Nov, 10:0022,414 MW24,779 MW
11 Nov, 11:0022,981 MW24,779 MW
11 Nov, 12:0023,419 MW24,779 MW
11 Nov, 13:0023,757 MW24,726 MW
11 Nov, 14:0023,866 MW24,665 MW
11 Nov, 15:0024,015 MW24,773 MW
11 Nov, 16:0024,792 MW25,154 MW
11 Nov, 17:0025,461 MW25,763 MW
11 Nov, 18:0025,298 MW25,669 MW
11 Nov, 19:0024,822 MW25,060 MW
11 Nov, 20:0024,171 MW24,264 MW
11 Nov, 21:0022,813 MW22,790 MW
11 Nov, 22:0021,644 MW21,646 MW
11 Nov, 23:0020,699 MW20,676 MW
12 Nov, 00:0020,505 MW20,506 MW
12 Nov, 01:0020,088 MW20,088 MW
12 Nov, 02:0019,913 MW19,824 MW
12 Nov, 03:0020,164 MW20,099 MW
12 Nov, 04:0021,169 MW21,099 MW
12 Nov, 05:0022,998 MW22,676 MW
12 Nov, 06:0023,945 MW23,945 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (718 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_soco_2026,
  title = {{SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/}
}

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