CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CHPD was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 27 MW (13.4%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for CHPD was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 27 MW (13.4%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CHPD came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 7 MW, against average demand of 221 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.0%

Bias+0.1%

Hours within 5%85%

Worst miss27 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 27 MW (13.4%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 228 MW, reported 201 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CHPD over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:00	247 MW	256 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	266 MW	278 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	273 MW	288 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	265 MW	290 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	253 MW	274 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	242 MW	258 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	233 MW	244 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	228 MW	234 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	224 MW	227 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	222 MW	216 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	224 MW	220 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	237 MW	227 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	250 MW	239 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	249 MW	245 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	247 MW	248 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	242 MW	243 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	233 MW	238 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	220 MW	228 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	216 MW	222 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	215 MW	215 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	217 MW	217 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	220 MW	220 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	219 MW	227 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	228 MW	236 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	243 MW	255 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	265 MW	270 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	272 MW	282 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	267 MW	278 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	261 MW	271 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	254 MW	260 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	244 MW	252 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	236 MW	245 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	230 MW	239 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	233 MW	235 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	234 MW	233 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	243 MW	238 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	251 MW	242 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	245 MW	243 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	241 MW	239 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	237 MW	232 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	227 MW	227 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	222 MW	216 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	219 MW	209 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	215 MW	210 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	217 MW	210 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	214 MW	211 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	223 MW	213 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	226 MW	219 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	239 MW	231 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	252 MW	246 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	259 MW	260 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	259 MW	262 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	253 MW	257 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	240 MW	249 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	227 MW	241 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	219 MW	232 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	216 MW	225 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	213 MW	221 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	219 MW	218 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	227 MW	222 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	231 MW	227 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	229 MW	229 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	227 MW	228 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	224 MW	224 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	222 MW	219 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	214 MW	211 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	207 MW	204 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	199 MW	205 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	199 MW	202 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	198 MW	201 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	199 MW	203 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	206 MW	210 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	216 MW	222 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	226 MW	238 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	238 MW	250 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	231 MW	252 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	220 MW	245 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	216 MW	237 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	209 MW	229 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	202 MW	220 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	197 MW	215 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	194 MW	213 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	199 MW	217 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	208 MW	225 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	222 MW	233 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	224 MW	237 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	225 MW	238 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	225 MW	235 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	217 MW	231 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	213 MW	222 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	209 MW	218 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	208 MW	207 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	203 MW	207 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	208 MW	209 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	209 MW	216 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	225 MW	225 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	242 MW	242 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	260 MW	259 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	275 MW	279 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	269 MW	275 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	264 MW	268 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	248 MW	258 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	242 MW	251 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	234 MW	244 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	237 MW	240 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	234 MW	241 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	237 MW	245 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	247 MW	243 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	254 MW	248 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	249 MW	247 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	244 MW	243 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	238 MW	236 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	233 MW	227 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	219 MW	217 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	214 MW	210 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	212 MW	213 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	216 MW	213 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	216 MW	216 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	223 MW	221 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	235 MW	230 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	253 MW	249 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	273 MW	265 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	281 MW	278 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	275 MW	277 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	257 MW	272 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	263 MW	264 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	256 MW	257 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	246 MW	251 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	242 MW	242 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	238 MW	239 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	243 MW	241 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	248 MW	242 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	254 MW	247 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	248 MW	246 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	244 MW	242 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	239 MW	235 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	227 MW	226 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	217 MW	215 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	210 MW	208 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	204 MW	205 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	204 MW	204 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	199 MW	206 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	206 MW	210 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	207 MW	218 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	228 MW	232 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	240 MW	246 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	247 MW	259 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	248 MW	258 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	244 MW	247 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	245 MW	246 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	236 MW	236 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	233 MW	228 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	231 MW	221 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	230 MW	219 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	230 MW	222 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	238 MW	222 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	238 MW	230 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	235 MW	232 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	230 MW	231 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	227 MW	226 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	217 MW	219 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	207 MW	210 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	199 MW	203 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	195 MW	198 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	194 MW	196 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	191 MW	197 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	195 MW	202 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	202 MW	212 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_chpd_2026,
  title = {{CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

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CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related