DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for DOPD was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 31 MW (9.6%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 07:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for DOPD was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 31 MW (9.6%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 07:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, DOPD came 27 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 10 MW, against average demand of 271 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 79% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.8%

Bias+3.1%

Hours within 5%70%

Worst miss31 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+8 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 31 MW (9.6%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 07:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 354 MW, reported 323 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for DOPD over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:00	288 MW	308 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	312 MW	321 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	314 MW	329 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	305 MW	322 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	301 MW	311 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	291 MW	298 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	288 MW	286 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	283 MW	277 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	276 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	275 MW	271 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	280 MW	275 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	291 MW	284 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	300 MW	292 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	299 MW	296 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	296 MW	298 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	288 MW	295 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	282 MW	292 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	272 MW	287 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	260 MW	282 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	263 MW	276 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	263 MW	275 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	264 MW	278 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	262 MW	285 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	271 MW	295 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	287 MW	308 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	302 MW	323 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	313 MW	333 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	312 MW	325 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	303 MW	315 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	299 MW	305 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	296 MW	295 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	288 MW	287 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	286 MW	283 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	281 MW	285 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	287 MW	291 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	292 MW	297 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	295 MW	301 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	288 MW	303 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	287 MW	301 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	280 MW	297 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	276 MW	291 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	271 MW	283 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	263 MW	275 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	260 MW	271 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	260 MW	269 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	265 MW	271 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	265 MW	277 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	269 MW	286 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	279 MW	297 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	293 MW	309 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	300 MW	319 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	301 MW	315 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	294 MW	306 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	284 MW	295 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	274 MW	282 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	265 MW	271 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	265 MW	265 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	262 MW	264 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	269 MW	266 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	277 MW	269 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	280 MW	272 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	281 MW	274 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	277 MW	275 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	274 MW	273 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	270 MW	270 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	265 MW	267 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	260 MW	264 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	250 MW	259 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	248 MW	258 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	246 MW	260 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	247 MW	265 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	254 MW	272 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	263 MW	280 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	267 MW	288 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	281 MW	295 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	273 MW	295 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	267 MW	292 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	260 MW	287 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	255 MW	278 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	253 MW	269 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	249 MW	261 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	246 MW	258 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	249 MW	260 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	262 MW	266 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	272 MW	273 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	269 MW	279 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	272 MW	283 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	270 MW	284 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	270 MW	282 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	261 MW	279 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	261 MW	275 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	255 MW	272 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	258 MW	274 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	259 MW	280 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	261 MW	289 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	273 MW	302 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	291 MW	320 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	311 MW	341 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	323 MW	354 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	314 MW	343 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	303 MW	325 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	301 MW	308 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	290 MW	296 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	288 MW	286 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	288 MW	280 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	284 MW	280 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	289 MW	286 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	296 MW	294 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	303 MW	301 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	300 MW	303 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	297 MW	301 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	289 MW	296 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	281 MW	289 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	271 MW	283 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	263 MW	277 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	261 MW	272 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	257 MW	271 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	262 MW	274 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	269 MW	280 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	275 MW	290 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	295 MW	303 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	312 MW	318 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	315 MW	330 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	313 MW	326 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	310 MW	317 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	307 MW	307 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	306 MW	297 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	302 MW	289 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	291 MW	285 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	297 MW	284 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	295 MW	286 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	295 MW	290 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	300 MW	293 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	296 MW	294 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	294 MW	292 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	284 MW	287 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	275 MW	280 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	269 MW	273 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	261 MW	266 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	253 MW	261 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	251 MW	259 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	254 MW	260 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	254 MW	266 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	259 MW	276 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	273 MW	289 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	287 MW	304 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	293 MW	316 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	291 MW	311 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	285 MW	303 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	285 MW	295 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	280 MW	288 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	276 MW	281 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	270 MW	276 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	274 MW	276 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	277 MW	278 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	284 MW	281 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	285 MW	284 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	286 MW	286 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	281 MW	285 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	278 MW	283 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	269 MW	278 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	257 MW	270 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	254 MW	261 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	253 MW	259 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	249 MW	257 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	253 MW	258 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	253 MW	262 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	264 MW	272 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_dopd_2026,
  title = {{DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/

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DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related