CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLW was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLW was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLW came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 17 MW, against average demand of 485 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.6%

Bias+0.8%

Hours within 5%74%

Worst miss69 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+3 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 568 MW, reported 499 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLW over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:00	485 MW	507 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	492 MW	491 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	499 MW	478 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	501 MW	472 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	504 MW	475 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	511 MW	480 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	512 MW	486 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	514 MW	490 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	522 MW	499 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	534 MW	513 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	546 MW	516 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	536 MW	503 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	516 MW	478 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	486 MW	452 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	445 MW	423 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	413 MW	399 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	380 MW	371 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	368 MW	357 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	360 MW	350 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	358 MW	350 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	366 MW	363 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	396 MW	397 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	437 MW	444 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	467 MW	477 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	477 MW	482 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	473 MW	473 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	467 MW	460 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	464 MW	447 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	458 MW	439 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	460 MW	438 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	465 MW	438 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	475 MW	443 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	484 MW	461 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	498 MW	489 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	509 MW	504 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	494 MW	495 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	483 MW	474 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	461 MW	454 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	437 MW	433 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	410 MW	419 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	389 MW	401 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	380 MW	400 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	375 MW	400 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	373 MW	407 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	380 MW	423 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	400 MW	452 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	430 MW	493 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	469 MW	535 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	497 MW	554 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	493 MW	541 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	476 MW	509 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	463 MW	476 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	447 MW	453 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	442 MW	440 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	443 MW	436 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	452 MW	446 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	466 MW	480 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	500 MW	527 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	518 MW	560 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	511 MW	563 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	505 MW	557 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	493 MW	545 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	478 MW	532 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	460 MW	515 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	442 MW	497 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	443 MW	500 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	447 MW	505 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	458 MW	515 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	476 MW	533 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	503 MW	557 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	547 MW	592 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	593 MW	624 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	605 MW	627 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	571 MW	586 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	521 MW	529 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	485 MW	483 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	461 MW	457 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	454 MW	444 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	451 MW	440 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	456 MW	450 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	479 MW	482 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	511 MW	527 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	534 MW	558 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	527 MW	565 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	520 MW	557 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	503 MW	544 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	478 MW	530 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	461 MW	512 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	453 MW	490 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	457 MW	487 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	460 MW	491 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	474 MW	502 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	490 MW	526 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	533 MW	575 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	599 MW	635 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	633 MW	670 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	617 MW	655 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	573 MW	609 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	536 MW	556 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	516 MW	513 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	496 MW	486 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	478 MW	472 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	479 MW	466 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	484 MW	472 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	501 MW	498 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	536 MW	540 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	565 MW	573 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	558 MW	583 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	544 MW	573 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	522 MW	554 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	493 MW	533 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	472 MW	509 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	458 MW	478 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	460 MW	475 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	459 MW	479 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	477 MW	489 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	504 MW	512 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	548 MW	561 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	626 MW	623 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	662 MW	658 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	646 MW	642 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	594 MW	594 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	537 MW	544 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	497 MW	506 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	486 MW	483 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	478 MW	472 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	474 MW	469 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	480 MW	476 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	495 MW	497 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	529 MW	530 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	555 MW	552 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	546 MW	552 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	537 MW	536 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	510 MW	513 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	487 MW	486 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	468 MW	465 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	458 MW	457 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	463 MW	453 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	467 MW	453 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	482 MW	460 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	503 MW	477 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	543 MW	512 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	606 MW	560 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	653 MW	595 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	645 MW	596 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	599 MW	570 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	555 MW	539 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	517 MW	515 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	498 MW	499 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	483 MW	490 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	484 MW	489 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	499 MW	498 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	516 MW	522 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	545 MW	547 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	550 MW	564 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	535 MW	562 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	522 MW	550 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	505 MW	524 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	470 MW	499 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	441 MW	469 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	425 MW	449 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	419 MW	437 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	415 MW	434 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	416 MW	437 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	428 MW	452 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	465 MW	494 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	523 MW	549 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	551 MW	585 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cplw_2026,
  title = {{CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

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CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related