TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TPWR was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 50 MW (9.1%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 22:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for TPWR was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 50 MW (9.1%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 22:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TPWR came 8 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 11 MW, against average demand of 503 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 66% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error2.1%

Bias+1.0%

Hours within 5%95%

Worst miss50 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 50 MW (9.1%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 22:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 599 MW, reported 549 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TPWR over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:00	496 MW	495 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	558 MW	549 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	581 MW	583 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	574 MW	582 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	559 MW	571 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	542 MW	560 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	534 MW	547 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	529 MW	539 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	513 MW	531 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	524 MW	529 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	520 MW	535 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	552 MW	566 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	588 MW	591 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	587 MW	601 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	573 MW	588 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	559 MW	564 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	529 MW	535 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	499 MW	504 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	471 MW	475 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	442 MW	450 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	431 MW	432 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	420 MW	430 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	423 MW	431 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	445 MW	450 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	486 MW	490 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	535 MW	539 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	562 MW	576 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	575 MW	582 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	572 MW	576 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	568 MW	574 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	562 MW	567 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	560 MW	561 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	555 MW	550 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	559 MW	547 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	565 MW	551 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	585 MW	572 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	593 MW	592 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	576 MW	581 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	557 MW	556 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	528 MW	533 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	505 MW	508 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	477 MW	487 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	457 MW	462 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	434 MW	442 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	417 MW	417 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	415 MW	410 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	409 MW	411 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	424 MW	416 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	442 MW	435 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	478 MW	464 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	504 MW	491 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	526 MW	516 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	534 MW	526 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	529 MW	521 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	525 MW	512 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	513 MW	500 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	502 MW	491 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	499 MW	488 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	495 MW	491 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	525 MW	517 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	542 MW	532 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	524 MW	519 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	510 MW	510 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	481 MW	494 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	465 MW	467 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	436 MW	454 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	419 MW	430 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	407 MW	415 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	390 MW	397 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	387 MW	385 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	381 MW	383 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	383 MW	388 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	409 MW	398 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	432 MW	422 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	464 MW	449 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	489 MW	481 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	498 MW	498 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	501 MW	501 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	503 MW	501 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	512 MW	497 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	495 MW	494 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	490 MW	492 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	500 MW	497 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	530 MW	528 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	562 MW	554 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	570 MW	555 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	564 MW	553 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	545 MW	533 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	528 MW	503 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	489 MW	477 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	457 MW	447 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	442 MW	449 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	429 MW	439 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	432 MW	437 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	433 MW	442 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	462 MW	466 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	506 MW	514 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	567 MW	570 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	608 MW	610 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	599 MW	612 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	585 MW	606 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	580 MW	599 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	583 MW	592 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	574 MW	588 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	572 MW	577 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	574 MW	575 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	578 MW	582 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	609 MW	608 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	632 MW	639 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	620 MW	628 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	600 MW	601 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	565 MW	575 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	527 MW	541 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	491 MW	502 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	462 MW	468 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	433 MW	454 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	425 MW	436 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	420 MW	431 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	416 MW	431 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	436 MW	447 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	477 MW	488 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	534 MW	541 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	567 MW	577 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	571 MW	580 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	560 MW	576 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	569 MW	574 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	567 MW	572 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	564 MW	570 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	564 MW	563 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	559 MW	560 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	560 MW	564 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	576 MW	584 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	595 MW	604 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	587 MW	599 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	559 MW	577 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	538 MW	552 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	506 MW	519 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	473 MW	485 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	444 MW	453 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	423 MW	425 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	410 MW	404 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	406 MW	397 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	405 MW	398 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	413 MW	407 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	447 MW	430 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	485 MW	461 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	514 MW	488 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	529 MW	516 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	527 MW	523 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	523 MW	525 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	512 MW	521 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	505 MW	514 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	496 MW	505 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	496 MW	505 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	501 MW	503 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	523 MW	533 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	546 MW	549 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	540 MW	539 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	525 MW	525 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	516 MW	503 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	481 MW	476 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	451 MW	459 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	420 MW	430 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	396 MW	406 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	391 MW	395 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	379 MW	390 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	390 MW	390 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	401 MW	406 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tpwr_2026,
  title = {{TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/

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TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related