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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 631 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Copenhagen).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 631 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Denmark West (DK1) came 1 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 30 MW, against average demand of 2,865 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 49% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

631 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error1.1%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%96%
Worst miss375 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-4 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,174 MW, reported 2,549 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Denmark West (DK1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 15:006 Nov, 15:007 Nov, 15:008 Nov, 15:009 Nov, 15:0010 Nov, 15:0011 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 15:003,054 MW3,072 MW
5 Nov, 16:003,092 MW3,076 MW
5 Nov, 17:003,190 MW3,192 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,076 MW3,085 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,924 MW2,915 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,822 MW2,823 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,680 MW2,693 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,652 MW2,550 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,527 MW2,515 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,859 MW2,826 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,909 MW2,904 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,980 MW2,966 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,937 MW2,922 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,729 MW2,749 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,553 MW2,579 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,692 MW2,697 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,930 MW2,939 MW
6 Nov, 08:00n/a3,088 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,161 MW3,157 MW
6 Nov, 10:00n/a3,286 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,535 MW3,481 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,519 MW3,529 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,338 MW3,369 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,111 MW3,153 MW
6 Nov, 15:00n/a2,834 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,844 MW2,832 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,025 MW3,020 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,887 MW2,917 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,702 MW2,705 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,553 MW2,560 MW
6 Nov, 21:00n/a2,460 MW
6 Nov, 22:00n/a2,337 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,438 MW2,280 MW
7 Nov, 00:00n/a2,582 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,662 MW2,661 MW
7 Nov, 02:00n/a2,719 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,751 MW2,759 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,608 MW2,621 MW
7 Nov, 05:00n/a2,432 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,273 MW2,284 MW
7 Nov, 07:00n/a2,393 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,500 MW2,502 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,674 MW2,660 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,841 MW2,827 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,904 MW2,917 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,899 MW2,903 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,779 MW2,777 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,632 MW2,649 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,536 MW2,548 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,599 MW2,582 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,789 MW2,771 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,688 MW2,714 MW
7 Nov, 19:00n/a2,518 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,420 MW2,427 MW
7 Nov, 21:00n/a2,337 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,264 MW2,263 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,206 MW2,237 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,386 MW2,385 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,475 MW2,453 MW
8 Nov, 02:00n/a2,623 MW
8 Nov, 03:00n/a2,579 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,473 MW2,468 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,336 MW2,354 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,191 MW2,199 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,292 MW2,305 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,414 MW2,413 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,564 MW2,567 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,802 MW2,773 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,908 MW2,915 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,908 MW2,916 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,851 MW2,860 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,775 MW2,774 MW
8 Nov, 15:00n/a2,672 MW
8 Nov, 16:00n/a2,717 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,890 MW2,880 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,738 MW2,762 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,564 MW2,568 MW
8 Nov, 20:00n/a2,428 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,368 MW2,371 MW
8 Nov, 22:00n/a2,334 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,352 MW2,319 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,567 MW2,578 MW
9 Nov, 01:00n/a2,689 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,705 MW2,694 MW
9 Nov, 03:00n/a2,707 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,566 MW2,570 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,352 MW2,374 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,511 MW2,504 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,860 MW2,834 MW
9 Nov, 08:00n/a3,053 MW
9 Nov, 09:003,138 MW3,115 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,247 MW3,260 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,226 MW3,248 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,160 MW3,165 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,143 MW3,151 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,019 MW2,986 MW
9 Nov, 15:00n/a2,927 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,021 MW3,023 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,044 MW3,060 MW
9 Nov, 18:003,015 MW3,017 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,818 MW2,833 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,745 MW2,740 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,620 MW2,627 MW
9 Nov, 22:00n/a2,488 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,440 MW2,456 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,782 MW2,730 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,882 MW2,883 MW
10 Nov, 02:00n/a2,830 MW
10 Nov, 03:00n/a2,680 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,475 MW2,473 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,386 MW2,374 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,673 MW2,647 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,912 MW2,931 MW
10 Nov, 08:003,041 MW3,034 MW
10 Nov, 09:00n/a3,089 MW
10 Nov, 10:003,219 MW3,222 MW
10 Nov, 11:003,255 MW3,240 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,338 MW3,328 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,345 MW3,322 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,155 MW3,183 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,014 MW2,997 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,050 MW3,051 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,155 MW3,179 MW
10 Nov, 18:003,001 MW3,006 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,874 MW2,865 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,718 MW2,732 MW
10 Nov, 21:00n/a2,638 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,657 MW2,521 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,605 MW2,473 MW
11 Nov, 00:00n/a2,785 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,937 MW2,920 MW
11 Nov, 02:003,140 MW3,092 MW
11 Nov, 03:003,125 MW3,123 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,823 MW2,857 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,601 MW2,625 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,810 MW2,812 MW
11 Nov, 07:00n/a3,038 MW
11 Nov, 08:003,164 MW3,161 MW
11 Nov, 09:00n/a3,194 MW
11 Nov, 10:003,204 MW3,202 MW
11 Nov, 11:00n/a3,225 MW
11 Nov, 12:003,188 MW3,181 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,028 MW3,033 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,950 MW2,934 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,889 MW2,875 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,970 MW2,959 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,131 MW3,128 MW
11 Nov, 18:003,001 MW3,018 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,847 MW2,826 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,784 MW2,781 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,693 MW2,681 MW
11 Nov, 22:00n/a2,608 MW
11 Nov, 23:00n/a2,555 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,693 MW2,714 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,726 MW2,721 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,829 MW2,816 MW
12 Nov, 03:00n/a2,910 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,852 MW2,852 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,603 MW2,616 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,715 MW2,717 MW
12 Nov, 07:003,048 MW3,040 MW
12 Nov, 08:003,209 MW3,211 MW
12 Nov, 09:003,329 MW3,304 MW
12 Nov, 10:00n/a3,504 MW
12 Nov, 11:003,526 MW3,489 MW
12 Nov, 12:003,458 MW3,498 MW
12 Nov, 13:00n/a3,425 MW
12 Nov, 14:003,436 MW3,439 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (631 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_dk1_2026,
  title = {{Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/}
}

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