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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 405 MW (12.4%) too high at 11 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 405 MW (12.4%) too high at 11 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-North came 18 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 77 MW, against average demand of 2,685 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 36% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.8%
Bias-1.0%
Hours within 5%84%
Worst miss405 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-32 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 405 MW (12.4%) too high at 11 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 3,680 MW, reported 3,275 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Centre-North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:003,710 MW3,434 MW
5 Nov, 15:003,701 MW3,523 MW
5 Nov, 16:003,600 MW3,553 MW
5 Nov, 17:003,656 MW3,613 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,563 MW3,613 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,538 MW3,596 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,294 MW3,323 MW
5 Nov, 21:003,054 MW3,085 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,715 MW2,763 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,464 MW2,422 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,269 MW2,198 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,151 MW2,100 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,147 MW2,076 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,143 MW2,075 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,137 MW2,087 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,288 MW2,198 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,716 MW2,635 MW
6 Nov, 07:003,099 MW3,098 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,518 MW3,566 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,759 MW3,641 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,820 MW3,575 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,827 MW3,605 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,704 MW3,475 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,644 MW3,493 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,736 MW3,588 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,709 MW3,560 MW
6 Nov, 16:003,641 MW3,496 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,657 MW3,513 MW
6 Nov, 18:003,586 MW3,523 MW
6 Nov, 19:003,530 MW3,477 MW
6 Nov, 20:003,275 MW3,250 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,976 MW3,003 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,684 MW2,673 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,450 MW2,387 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,188 MW2,208 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,072 MW2,113 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,022 MW2,050 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,982 MW2,029 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,949 MW2,010 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,992 MW2,019 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,166 MW2,195 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,360 MW2,393 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,633 MW2,665 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,764 MW2,766 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,785 MW2,713 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,795 MW2,687 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,706 MW2,656 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,560 MW2,557 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,537 MW2,540 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,557 MW2,527 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,597 MW2,538 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,797 MW2,675 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,884 MW2,810 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,941 MW2,915 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,755 MW2,713 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,524 MW2,513 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,336 MW2,320 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,154 MW2,127 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,956 MW1,947 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,841 MW1,821 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,777 MW1,764 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,733 MW1,741 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,706 MW1,738 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,732 MW1,738 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,828 MW1,804 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,903 MW1,848 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,110 MW1,971 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,199 MW2,115 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,233 MW2,157 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,227 MW2,228 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,264 MW2,273 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,161 MW2,202 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,265 MW2,192 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,292 MW2,247 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,380 MW2,302 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,602 MW2,425 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,733 MW2,577 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,817 MW2,705 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,674 MW2,632 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,500 MW2,469 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,319 MW2,274 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,150 MW2,067 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,923 MW1,938 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,804 MW1,867 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,749 MW1,828 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,760 MW1,815 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,766 MW1,845 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,961 MW2,022 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,534 MW2,473 MW
9 Nov, 07:003,020 MW2,990 MW
9 Nov, 08:003,529 MW3,477 MW
9 Nov, 09:003,743 MW3,642 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,803 MW3,665 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,902 MW3,685 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,709 MW3,540 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,659 MW3,488 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,757 MW3,596 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,652 MW3,613 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,652 MW3,586 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,634 MW3,659 MW
9 Nov, 18:003,574 MW3,565 MW
9 Nov, 19:003,517 MW3,478 MW
9 Nov, 20:003,307 MW3,283 MW
9 Nov, 21:003,081 MW3,006 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,788 MW2,700 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,574 MW2,445 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,266 MW2,175 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,170 MW2,103 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,095 MW2,080 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,088 MW2,068 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,095 MW2,093 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,255 MW2,188 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,738 MW2,658 MW
10 Nov, 07:003,234 MW3,142 MW
10 Nov, 08:003,749 MW3,657 MW
10 Nov, 09:003,931 MW3,782 MW
10 Nov, 10:003,935 MW3,815 MW
10 Nov, 11:003,956 MW3,790 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,779 MW3,608 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,629 MW3,541 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,797 MW3,655 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,774 MW3,633 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,709 MW3,610 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,722 MW3,600 MW
10 Nov, 18:003,642 MW3,492 MW
10 Nov, 19:003,589 MW3,405 MW
10 Nov, 20:003,363 MW3,208 MW
10 Nov, 21:003,146 MW2,962 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,824 MW2,665 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,527 MW2,385 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,296 MW2,245 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,178 MW2,135 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,112 MW2,083 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,065 MW2,090 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,116 MW2,085 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,231 MW2,222 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,640 MW2,718 MW
11 Nov, 07:003,123 MW3,158 MW
11 Nov, 08:003,580 MW3,593 MW
11 Nov, 09:003,756 MW3,700 MW
11 Nov, 10:003,773 MW3,710 MW
11 Nov, 11:003,827 MW3,762 MW
11 Nov, 12:003,676 MW3,630 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,584 MW3,635 MW
11 Nov, 14:003,707 MW3,693 MW
11 Nov, 15:003,748 MW3,643 MW
11 Nov, 16:003,714 MW3,625 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,664 MW3,725 MW
11 Nov, 18:003,275 MW3,680 MW
11 Nov, 19:003,219 MW3,581 MW
11 Nov, 20:003,110 MW3,322 MW
11 Nov, 21:003,080 MW3,044 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,771 MW2,755 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,479 MW2,503 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,218 MW2,242 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,135 MW2,136 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,110 MW2,089 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,094 MW2,090 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,148 MW2,100 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,260 MW2,238 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,669 MW2,718 MW
12 Nov, 07:003,115 MW3,195 MW
12 Nov, 08:003,608 MW3,638 MW
12 Nov, 09:003,765 MW3,765 MW
12 Nov, 10:003,803 MW3,780 MW
12 Nov, 11:003,796 MW3,798 MW
12 Nov, 12:003,659 MW3,654 MW
12 Nov, 13:003,622 MW3,548 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_cnor_2026,
  title = {{Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/}
}

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