DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for DUK was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,256 MW (13.6%) too high at 18 Oct 2026, 06:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for DUK was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,256 MW (13.6%) too high at 18 Oct 2026, 06:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, DUK came 11 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 236 MW, against average demand of 10,893 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 55% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error2.2%

Bias+0.8%

Hours within 5%89%

Worst miss1,256 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+78 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,256 MW (13.6%) too high at 18 Oct 2026, 06:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 10,492 MW, reported 9,236 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for DUK over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:00	11,570 MW	11,563 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	11,775 MW	11,728 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	12,047 MW	11,932 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	12,205 MW	12,186 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	12,344 MW	12,387 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	12,636 MW	12,594 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	12,721 MW	12,676 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	12,765 MW	12,784 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	12,836 MW	12,919 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	13,099 MW	13,156 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	13,300 MW	13,112 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	13,041 MW	12,852 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	12,673 MW	12,290 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	12,078 MW	11,651 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	11,349 MW	10,897 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	10,595 MW	10,194 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	9,962 MW	9,972 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	9,563 MW	9,538 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	9,270 MW	9,237 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	9,164 MW	9,127 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	9,251 MW	9,269 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	9,745 MW	9,837 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	10,623 MW	10,625 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	11,111 MW	11,164 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	11,373 MW	11,350 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	11,617 MW	11,458 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	11,660 MW	11,585 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	11,715 MW	11,719 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	11,845 MW	11,829 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	12,026 MW	11,914 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	12,129 MW	11,890 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	12,186 MW	11,832 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	12,177 MW	11,828 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	12,091 MW	11,868 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	11,997 MW	11,668 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	11,612 MW	11,256 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	11,174 MW	10,749 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	10,753 MW	10,309 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	10,218 MW	9,840 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	9,627 MW	9,382 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	9,093 MW	8,958 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	8,772 MW	8,650 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	8,570 MW	8,476 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	8,455 MW	8,458 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	8,563 MW	8,582 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	8,810 MW	8,886 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	9,227 MW	9,329 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	9,705 MW	9,824 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	10,049 MW	10,176 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	10,132 MW	10,249 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	10,125 MW	10,101 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	10,122 MW	9,926 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	10,087 MW	9,802 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	10,121 MW	9,768 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	10,202 MW	9,829 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	10,351 MW	9,959 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	10,563 MW	10,301 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	10,879 MW	10,824 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	11,015 MW	11,195 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	10,824 MW	11,275 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	10,607 MW	11,062 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	10,322 MW	10,798 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	10,011 MW	10,472 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	9,538 MW	10,129 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	9,210 MW	9,923 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	9,010 MW	9,765 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	8,955 MW	9,709 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	8,974 MW	9,778 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	9,126 MW	9,972 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	9,453 MW	10,338 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	9,936 MW	10,837 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	10,543 MW	11,304 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	10,773 MW	11,423 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	10,548 MW	11,060 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	10,206 MW	10,489 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	10,008 MW	10,075 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	9,960 MW	9,869 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	9,984 MW	9,774 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	10,045 MW	9,791 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	10,215 MW	9,943 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	10,538 MW	10,352 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	11,145 MW	10,942 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	11,420 MW	11,377 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	11,285 MW	11,551 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	11,053 MW	11,400 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	10,639 MW	11,118 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	10,133 MW	10,706 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	9,686 MW	10,323 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	9,354 MW	10,017 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	9,225 MW	9,894 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	9,218 MW	9,883 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	9,366 MW	10,046 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	9,740 MW	10,483 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	10,567 MW	11,445 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	11,778 MW	12,598 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	12,362 MW	13,163 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	12,149 MW	12,854 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	11,721 MW	12,167 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	11,422 MW	11,554 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	11,197 MW	11,187 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	11,120 MW	11,034 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	11,168 MW	11,041 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	11,240 MW	11,103 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	11,341 MW	11,220 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	11,563 MW	11,491 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	11,924 MW	11,956 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	12,180 MW	12,302 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	12,036 MW	12,348 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	11,707 MW	12,098 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	11,209 MW	11,708 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	10,635 MW	11,200 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	10,043 MW	10,716 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	9,720 MW	10,284 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	9,596 MW	10,134 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	9,574 MW	10,086 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	9,685 MW	10,204 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	10,049 MW	10,590 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	10,887 MW	11,493 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	12,123 MW	12,576 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	12,605 MW	13,089 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	12,281 MW	12,770 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	11,746 MW	12,109 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	11,377 MW	11,548 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	11,165 MW	11,231 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	11,057 MW	11,118 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	11,171 MW	11,132 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	11,156 MW	11,182 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	11,354 MW	11,286 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	11,530 MW	11,537 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	11,873 MW	11,946 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	12,097 MW	12,183 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	11,929 MW	12,124 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	11,597 MW	11,811 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	11,163 MW	11,371 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	10,601 MW	10,802 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	10,073 MW	10,271 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	9,703 MW	9,884 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	9,532 MW	9,663 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	9,483 MW	9,554 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	9,581 MW	9,607 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	9,874 MW	9,886 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	10,589 MW	10,523 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	11,521 MW	11,320 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	12,062 MW	11,857 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	11,952 MW	11,941 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	11,550 MW	11,773 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	11,252 MW	11,607 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	11,114 MW	11,527 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	11,068 MW	11,531 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	11,132 MW	11,604 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	11,207 MW	11,677 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	11,268 MW	11,739 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	11,397 MW	11,887 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	11,800 MW	12,189 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	12,053 MW	12,283 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	11,831 MW	12,064 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	11,530 MW	11,670 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	11,060 MW	11,198 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	10,373 MW	10,609 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	9,788 MW	10,030 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	9,349 MW	9,514 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	9,110 MW	9,231 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	9,013 MW	9,083 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	9,002 MW	9,099 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	9,179 MW	9,361 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	9,515 MW	10,110 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	10,593 MW	11,041 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	11,071 MW	11,597 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_duk_2026,
  title = {{DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

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DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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