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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BPA was off by 1.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,210 MW (16.1%) too low at 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BPA was off by 1.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,210 MW (16.1%) too low at 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BPA came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 118 MW, against average demand of 7,057 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 49% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error1.7%
Bias+0.0%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss1,210 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+2 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,210 MW (16.1%) too low at 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 6,290 MW, reported 7,500 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
BPA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BPA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BPA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:007,045 MW7,181 MW
5 Nov, 06:007,596 MW7,801 MW
5 Nov, 07:007,920 MW8,062 MW
5 Nov, 08:007,836 MW7,988 MW
5 Nov, 09:007,644 MW7,764 MW
5 Nov, 10:007,474 MW7,558 MW
5 Nov, 11:007,342 MW7,398 MW
5 Nov, 12:007,247 MW7,303 MW
5 Nov, 13:007,085 MW7,192 MW
5 Nov, 14:007,046 MW7,131 MW
5 Nov, 15:007,079 MW7,187 MW
5 Nov, 16:007,347 MW7,468 MW
5 Nov, 17:007,675 MW7,828 MW
5 Nov, 18:007,702 MW7,832 MW
5 Nov, 19:007,613 MW7,745 MW
5 Nov, 20:007,454 MW7,603 MW
5 Nov, 21:007,193 MW7,320 MW
5 Nov, 22:006,871 MW6,976 MW
5 Nov, 23:006,573 MW6,710 MW
6 Nov, 00:006,451 MW6,391 MW
6 Nov, 01:006,367 MW6,184 MW
6 Nov, 02:006,312 MW6,100 MW
6 Nov, 03:006,390 MW6,145 MW
6 Nov, 04:006,553 MW6,340 MW
6 Nov, 05:006,982 MW6,800 MW
6 Nov, 06:007,531 MW7,375 MW
6 Nov, 07:007,764 MW7,634 MW
6 Nov, 08:007,826 MW7,568 MW
6 Nov, 09:007,723 MW7,458 MW
6 Nov, 10:007,570 MW7,294 MW
6 Nov, 11:007,452 MW7,141 MW
6 Nov, 12:007,334 MW7,027 MW
6 Nov, 13:007,054 MW6,928 MW
6 Nov, 14:007,454 MW6,868 MW
6 Nov, 15:007,298 MW6,887 MW
6 Nov, 16:007,525 MW7,091 MW
6 Nov, 17:007,664 MW7,293 MW
6 Nov, 18:007,569 MW7,204 MW
6 Nov, 19:007,374 MW7,054 MW
6 Nov, 20:006,915 MW6,856 MW
6 Nov, 21:006,646 MW6,628 MW
6 Nov, 22:006,644 MW6,380 MW
6 Nov, 23:006,320 MW6,128 MW
7 Nov, 00:006,175 MW6,114 MW
7 Nov, 01:006,098 MW6,015 MW
7 Nov, 02:006,018 MW5,969 MW
7 Nov, 03:005,982 MW5,978 MW
7 Nov, 04:006,094 MW6,061 MW
7 Nov, 05:006,336 MW6,290 MW
7 Nov, 06:006,612 MW6,558 MW
7 Nov, 07:006,873 MW6,826 MW
7 Nov, 08:007,041 MW7,014 MW
7 Nov, 09:007,121 MW7,049 MW
7 Nov, 10:007,004 MW6,979 MW
7 Nov, 11:006,903 MW6,880 MW
7 Nov, 12:006,782 MW6,730 MW
7 Nov, 13:006,644 MW6,563 MW
7 Nov, 14:006,565 MW6,585 MW
7 Nov, 15:006,597 MW6,616 MW
7 Nov, 16:006,847 MW6,861 MW
7 Nov, 17:007,111 MW7,109 MW
7 Nov, 18:007,020 MW7,034 MW
7 Nov, 19:006,882 MW6,884 MW
7 Nov, 20:006,778 MW6,683 MW
7 Nov, 21:006,554 MW6,477 MW
7 Nov, 22:006,395 MW6,299 MW
7 Nov, 23:006,175 MW6,073 MW
8 Nov, 00:005,992 MW5,915 MW
8 Nov, 01:005,863 MW5,758 MW
8 Nov, 02:005,852 MW5,701 MW
8 Nov, 03:005,850 MW5,718 MW
8 Nov, 04:005,921 MW5,786 MW
8 Nov, 05:006,049 MW5,990 MW
8 Nov, 06:006,371 MW6,215 MW
8 Nov, 07:006,631 MW6,507 MW
8 Nov, 08:006,885 MW6,765 MW
8 Nov, 09:006,965 MW6,861 MW
8 Nov, 10:006,968 MW6,800 MW
8 Nov, 11:006,921 MW6,725 MW
8 Nov, 12:006,847 MW6,681 MW
8 Nov, 13:006,802 MW6,643 MW
8 Nov, 14:006,743 MW6,664 MW
8 Nov, 15:006,791 MW6,743 MW
8 Nov, 16:007,072 MW7,058 MW
8 Nov, 17:007,403 MW7,399 MW
8 Nov, 18:007,409 MW7,401 MW
8 Nov, 19:007,316 MW7,323 MW
8 Nov, 20:007,171 MW7,177 MW
8 Nov, 21:006,918 MW6,923 MW
8 Nov, 22:006,603 MW6,647 MW
8 Nov, 23:006,362 MW6,354 MW
9 Nov, 00:006,155 MW6,182 MW
9 Nov, 01:006,089 MW6,137 MW
9 Nov, 02:006,090 MW6,156 MW
9 Nov, 03:006,157 MW6,252 MW
9 Nov, 04:006,397 MW6,535 MW
9 Nov, 05:006,869 MW7,082 MW
9 Nov, 06:007,449 MW7,758 MW
9 Nov, 07:007,758 MW8,098 MW
9 Nov, 08:007,756 MW8,043 MW
9 Nov, 09:007,647 MW7,850 MW
9 Nov, 10:007,569 MW7,635 MW
9 Nov, 11:007,544 MW7,466 MW
9 Nov, 12:007,513 MW7,295 MW
9 Nov, 13:007,481 MW7,191 MW
9 Nov, 14:007,480 MW7,161 MW
9 Nov, 15:007,566 MW7,191 MW
9 Nov, 16:007,912 MW7,486 MW
9 Nov, 17:008,162 MW7,805 MW
9 Nov, 18:008,048 MW7,796 MW
9 Nov, 19:007,910 MW7,671 MW
9 Nov, 20:007,642 MW7,465 MW
9 Nov, 21:007,324 MW7,161 MW
9 Nov, 22:006,892 MW6,840 MW
9 Nov, 23:006,577 MW6,575 MW
10 Nov, 00:006,387 MW6,397 MW
10 Nov, 01:006,294 MW6,269 MW
10 Nov, 02:006,191 MW6,219 MW
10 Nov, 03:006,172 MW6,242 MW
10 Nov, 04:006,412 MW6,436 MW
10 Nov, 05:006,851 MW6,868 MW
10 Nov, 06:007,401 MW7,396 MW
10 Nov, 07:007,667 MW7,617 MW
10 Nov, 08:007,623 MW7,574 MW
10 Nov, 09:007,657 MW7,484 MW
10 Nov, 10:007,563 MW7,394 MW
10 Nov, 11:007,563 MW7,338 MW
10 Nov, 12:007,549 MW7,303 MW
10 Nov, 13:007,548 MW7,276 MW
10 Nov, 14:007,481 MW7,302 MW
10 Nov, 15:007,450 MW7,376 MW
10 Nov, 16:007,624 MW7,637 MW
10 Nov, 17:007,828 MW7,896 MW
10 Nov, 18:007,726 MW7,798 MW
10 Nov, 19:007,588 MW7,624 MW
10 Nov, 20:007,317 MW7,384 MW
10 Nov, 21:007,056 MW7,056 MW
10 Nov, 22:006,760 MW6,727 MW
10 Nov, 23:006,402 MW6,436 MW
11 Nov, 00:006,235 MW6,253 MW
11 Nov, 01:006,115 MW6,129 MW
11 Nov, 02:006,076 MW6,059 MW
11 Nov, 03:006,087 MW6,045 MW
11 Nov, 04:006,187 MW6,205 MW
11 Nov, 05:006,578 MW6,579 MW
11 Nov, 06:006,950 MW7,008 MW
11 Nov, 07:007,216 MW7,282 MW
11 Nov, 08:007,298 MW7,368 MW
11 Nov, 09:007,296 MW7,361 MW
11 Nov, 10:007,206 MW7,229 MW
11 Nov, 11:007,123 MW7,170 MW
11 Nov, 12:007,041 MW7,057 MW
11 Nov, 13:006,983 MW6,996 MW
11 Nov, 14:007,004 MW6,932 MW
11 Nov, 15:006,963 MW6,991 MW
11 Nov, 16:007,203 MW7,241 MW
11 Nov, 17:007,485 MW7,518 MW
11 Nov, 18:007,442 MW7,440 MW
11 Nov, 19:007,329 MW7,337 MW
11 Nov, 20:007,142 MW7,170 MW
11 Nov, 21:006,910 MW6,911 MW
11 Nov, 22:006,669 MW6,597 MW
11 Nov, 23:006,327 MW6,313 MW
12 Nov, 00:006,234 MW6,246 MW
12 Nov, 01:006,094 MW6,097 MW
12 Nov, 02:006,061 MW6,046 MW
12 Nov, 03:006,095 MW6,082 MW
12 Nov, 04:007,500 MW6,290 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bpa_2026,
  title = {{BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/}
}

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