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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FPL was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 696 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,881 MW (10.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FPL was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 696 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,881 MW (10.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FPL came 13 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 414 MW, against average demand of 16,408 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

696 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%88%
Worst miss1,881 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+108 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,881 MW (10.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 20,520 MW, reported 18,639 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
FPL day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPL over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPL over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:0016,217 MW16,494 MW
5 Nov, 09:0018,032 MW18,138 MW
5 Nov, 10:0019,055 MW19,262 MW
5 Nov, 11:0020,035 MW20,105 MW
5 Nov, 12:0020,808 MW20,953 MW
5 Nov, 13:0021,928 MW21,332 MW
5 Nov, 14:0022,366 MW21,253 MW
5 Nov, 15:0022,381 MW20,974 MW
5 Nov, 16:0021,658 MW20,766 MW
5 Nov, 17:0019,734 MW20,566 MW
5 Nov, 18:0019,560 MW20,032 MW
5 Nov, 19:0018,920 MW19,190 MW
5 Nov, 20:0018,028 MW18,355 MW
5 Nov, 21:0017,256 MW17,330 MW
5 Nov, 22:0016,627 MW16,122 MW
5 Nov, 23:0015,123 MW14,767 MW
6 Nov, 00:0013,802 MW13,521 MW
6 Nov, 01:0012,844 MW12,706 MW
6 Nov, 02:0012,189 MW12,366 MW
6 Nov, 03:0011,850 MW11,972 MW
6 Nov, 04:0011,865 MW12,041 MW
6 Nov, 05:0012,231 MW12,715 MW
6 Nov, 06:0013,279 MW13,728 MW
6 Nov, 07:0014,761 MW14,599 MW
6 Nov, 08:0016,791 MW16,288 MW
6 Nov, 09:0018,771 MW17,740 MW
6 Nov, 10:0019,149 MW18,887 MW
6 Nov, 11:0021,417 MW19,934 MW
6 Nov, 12:0021,288 MW20,780 MW
6 Nov, 13:0021,781 MW21,553 MW
6 Nov, 14:0022,044 MW21,707 MW
6 Nov, 15:0021,923 MW21,453 MW
6 Nov, 16:0020,520 MW20,824 MW
6 Nov, 17:0019,018 MW20,029 MW
6 Nov, 18:0018,507 MW19,330 MW
6 Nov, 19:0018,010 MW18,516 MW
6 Nov, 20:0017,730 MW17,605 MW
6 Nov, 21:0016,996 MW16,732 MW
6 Nov, 22:0016,167 MW15,931 MW
6 Nov, 23:0015,135 MW14,803 MW
7 Nov, 00:0013,901 MW13,629 MW
7 Nov, 01:0012,948 MW12,823 MW
7 Nov, 02:0012,242 MW12,209 MW
7 Nov, 03:0011,792 MW11,863 MW
7 Nov, 04:0011,550 MW11,741 MW
7 Nov, 05:0011,640 MW11,970 MW
7 Nov, 06:0011,988 MW12,352 MW
7 Nov, 07:0013,019 MW13,460 MW
7 Nov, 08:0015,881 MW15,502 MW
7 Nov, 09:0018,125 MW17,235 MW
7 Nov, 10:0019,241 MW18,434 MW
7 Nov, 11:0019,965 MW19,645 MW
7 Nov, 12:0020,489 MW20,653 MW
7 Nov, 13:0020,910 MW21,254 MW
7 Nov, 14:0021,004 MW21,324 MW
7 Nov, 15:0020,953 MW20,732 MW
7 Nov, 16:0019,756 MW19,944 MW
7 Nov, 17:0018,182 MW19,025 MW
7 Nov, 18:0017,912 MW18,232 MW
7 Nov, 19:0017,451 MW17,362 MW
7 Nov, 20:0016,470 MW16,544 MW
7 Nov, 21:0015,618 MW15,765 MW
7 Nov, 22:0015,083 MW14,975 MW
7 Nov, 23:0014,317 MW13,983 MW
8 Nov, 00:0013,227 MW12,991 MW
8 Nov, 01:0012,358 MW12,269 MW
8 Nov, 02:0011,722 MW11,728 MW
8 Nov, 03:0011,281 MW11,386 MW
8 Nov, 04:0011,010 MW11,188 MW
8 Nov, 05:0010,990 MW11,200 MW
8 Nov, 06:0011,228 MW11,475 MW
8 Nov, 07:0012,130 MW12,743 MW
8 Nov, 08:0015,046 MW14,670 MW
8 Nov, 09:0017,171 MW16,337 MW
8 Nov, 10:0018,228 MW17,470 MW
8 Nov, 11:0018,257 MW18,608 MW
8 Nov, 12:0019,078 MW19,663 MW
8 Nov, 13:0019,885 MW20,220 MW
8 Nov, 14:0020,264 MW20,390 MW
8 Nov, 15:0020,624 MW20,168 MW
8 Nov, 16:0019,457 MW19,730 MW
8 Nov, 17:0017,827 MW19,030 MW
8 Nov, 18:0017,718 MW18,363 MW
8 Nov, 19:0017,331 MW17,645 MW
8 Nov, 20:0016,713 MW16,924 MW
8 Nov, 21:0016,108 MW15,896 MW
8 Nov, 22:0014,959 MW14,748 MW
8 Nov, 23:0013,624 MW13,589 MW
9 Nov, 00:0012,495 MW12,330 MW
9 Nov, 01:0011,675 MW11,672 MW
9 Nov, 02:0011,176 MW11,172 MW
9 Nov, 03:0010,864 MW10,868 MW
9 Nov, 04:0010,943 MW11,102 MW
9 Nov, 05:0011,553 MW11,848 MW
9 Nov, 06:0012,374 MW12,952 MW
9 Nov, 07:0013,495 MW14,193 MW
9 Nov, 08:0015,938 MW15,534 MW
9 Nov, 09:0017,434 MW16,817 MW
9 Nov, 10:0018,261 MW17,531 MW
9 Nov, 11:0018,824 MW18,477 MW
9 Nov, 12:0019,645 MW19,386 MW
9 Nov, 13:0020,052 MW20,118 MW
9 Nov, 14:0020,334 MW20,201 MW
9 Nov, 15:0020,269 MW20,065 MW
9 Nov, 16:0019,560 MW19,508 MW
9 Nov, 17:0018,499 MW19,137 MW
9 Nov, 18:0018,242 MW18,787 MW
9 Nov, 19:0017,619 MW18,088 MW
9 Nov, 20:0017,002 MW17,179 MW
9 Nov, 21:0016,209 MW16,251 MW
9 Nov, 22:0015,204 MW15,039 MW
9 Nov, 23:0014,142 MW13,852 MW
10 Nov, 00:0013,028 MW12,967 MW
10 Nov, 01:0012,136 MW12,021 MW
10 Nov, 02:0011,580 MW11,599 MW
10 Nov, 03:0011,286 MW11,511 MW
10 Nov, 04:0011,265 MW11,587 MW
10 Nov, 05:0011,790 MW12,323 MW
10 Nov, 06:0012,760 MW13,297 MW
10 Nov, 07:0013,704 MW14,358 MW
10 Nov, 08:0015,511 MW15,855 MW
10 Nov, 09:0017,419 MW16,960 MW
10 Nov, 10:0018,248 MW17,792 MW
10 Nov, 11:0019,302 MW18,880 MW
10 Nov, 12:0020,283 MW19,762 MW
10 Nov, 13:0021,018 MW20,353 MW
10 Nov, 14:0020,715 MW20,558 MW
10 Nov, 15:0020,392 MW20,429 MW
10 Nov, 16:0019,907 MW19,866 MW
10 Nov, 17:0018,679 MW19,554 MW
10 Nov, 18:0018,112 MW19,259 MW
10 Nov, 19:0017,625 MW18,361 MW
10 Nov, 20:0017,205 MW17,509 MW
10 Nov, 21:0016,190 MW16,510 MW
10 Nov, 22:0015,400 MW15,357 MW
10 Nov, 23:0014,492 MW14,014 MW
11 Nov, 00:0013,462 MW13,247 MW
11 Nov, 01:0012,645 MW12,450 MW
11 Nov, 02:0012,284 MW12,082 MW
11 Nov, 03:0012,150 MW11,830 MW
11 Nov, 04:0012,129 MW12,038 MW
11 Nov, 05:0012,400 MW12,835 MW
11 Nov, 06:0013,056 MW13,468 MW
11 Nov, 07:0013,717 MW14,458 MW
11 Nov, 08:0015,648 MW15,901 MW
11 Nov, 09:0017,829 MW17,208 MW
11 Nov, 10:0018,936 MW18,077 MW
11 Nov, 11:0018,895 MW19,003 MW
11 Nov, 12:0019,532 MW19,885 MW
11 Nov, 13:0020,289 MW20,559 MW
11 Nov, 14:0020,172 MW20,622 MW
11 Nov, 15:0020,190 MW20,577 MW
11 Nov, 16:0019,561 MW19,901 MW
11 Nov, 17:0018,505 MW19,496 MW
11 Nov, 18:0018,381 MW18,977 MW
11 Nov, 19:0017,924 MW18,049 MW
11 Nov, 20:0017,044 MW17,066 MW
11 Nov, 21:0016,164 MW16,000 MW
11 Nov, 22:0015,569 MW14,906 MW
11 Nov, 23:0014,325 MW13,696 MW
12 Nov, 00:0013,023 MW12,798 MW
12 Nov, 01:0012,129 MW12,069 MW
12 Nov, 02:0011,561 MW11,629 MW
12 Nov, 03:0011,208 MW11,401 MW
12 Nov, 04:0011,190 MW11,431 MW
12 Nov, 05:0011,801 MW12,127 MW
12 Nov, 06:0012,788 MW12,935 MW
12 Nov, 07:0013,618 MW14,018 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (696 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fpl_2026,
  title = {{FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/}
}

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