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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TVA was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TVA was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TVA came 9 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 386 MW, against average demand of 16,699 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 65% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.2%
Bias+1.1%
Hours within 5%88%
Worst miss26,747 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+155 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 17,630 MW, reported 44,377 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
TVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 5 Nov, 07:006 Nov, 07:007 Nov, 07:008 Nov, 07:009 Nov, 07:0010 Nov, 07:0011 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 07:0016,260 MW16,683 MW
5 Nov, 08:0016,534 MW16,763 MW
5 Nov, 09:0016,715 MW16,818 MW
5 Nov, 10:0017,364 MW17,243 MW
5 Nov, 11:0017,733 MW17,565 MW
5 Nov, 12:0017,879 MW17,610 MW
5 Nov, 13:0018,228 MW17,683 MW
5 Nov, 14:0018,399 MW17,651 MW
5 Nov, 15:0018,307 MW17,503 MW
5 Nov, 16:0018,135 MW17,648 MW
5 Nov, 17:0018,446 MW18,107 MW
5 Nov, 18:0018,153 MW17,927 MW
5 Nov, 19:0017,709 MW17,616 MW
5 Nov, 20:0017,161 MW17,208 MW
5 Nov, 21:0016,277 MW16,552 MW
5 Nov, 22:0015,488 MW15,858 MW
5 Nov, 23:0014,719 MW15,153 MW
6 Nov, 00:0014,234 MW14,432 MW
6 Nov, 01:0013,937 MW14,159 MW
6 Nov, 02:0013,796 MW14,088 MW
6 Nov, 03:0013,751 MW14,069 MW
6 Nov, 04:0013,511 MW14,318 MW
6 Nov, 05:0014,971 MW15,576 MW
6 Nov, 06:0015,904 MW16,624 MW
6 Nov, 07:0016,288 MW16,941 MW
6 Nov, 08:0016,506 MW17,137 MW
6 Nov, 09:0016,575 MW17,146 MW
6 Nov, 10:0016,877 MW17,306 MW
6 Nov, 11:0016,849 MW17,318 MW
6 Nov, 12:0017,157 MW17,265 MW
6 Nov, 13:0016,906 MW17,230 MW
6 Nov, 14:0017,069 MW17,141 MW
6 Nov, 15:0017,176 MW17,170 MW
6 Nov, 16:0017,014 MW17,314 MW
6 Nov, 17:0017,509 MW17,735 MW
6 Nov, 18:0017,296 MW17,378 MW
6 Nov, 19:0016,943 MW16,953 MW
6 Nov, 20:0016,543 MW16,693 MW
6 Nov, 21:0016,152 MW16,325 MW
6 Nov, 22:0015,527 MW15,499 MW
6 Nov, 23:0014,870 MW14,924 MW
7 Nov, 00:0014,449 MW14,549 MW
7 Nov, 01:0014,125 MW14,369 MW
7 Nov, 02:0014,078 MW14,399 MW
7 Nov, 03:0014,182 MW14,433 MW
7 Nov, 04:0014,458 MW14,810 MW
7 Nov, 05:0014,997 MW15,477 MW
7 Nov, 06:0015,685 MW16,136 MW
7 Nov, 07:0016,259 MW16,808 MW
7 Nov, 08:0016,748 MW17,504 MW
7 Nov, 09:0016,420 MW17,468 MW
7 Nov, 10:0016,235 MW17,295 MW
7 Nov, 11:0016,039 MW17,127 MW
7 Nov, 12:0015,850 MW17,038 MW
7 Nov, 13:0015,594 MW16,925 MW
7 Nov, 14:0015,635 MW16,798 MW
7 Nov, 15:0015,876 MW16,946 MW
7 Nov, 16:0016,470 MW17,140 MW
7 Nov, 17:0016,789 MW17,638 MW
7 Nov, 18:0016,936 MW17,604 MW
7 Nov, 19:0016,858 MW17,393 MW
7 Nov, 20:0016,753 MW17,398 MW
7 Nov, 21:0016,476 MW17,195 MW
7 Nov, 22:0016,088 MW16,706 MW
7 Nov, 23:0015,582 MW16,406 MW
8 Nov, 00:0015,349 MW16,097 MW
8 Nov, 01:0015,236 MW16,090 MW
8 Nov, 02:0015,189 MW16,115 MW
8 Nov, 03:0015,577 MW16,193 MW
8 Nov, 04:0015,906 MW16,752 MW
8 Nov, 05:0016,419 MW17,348 MW
8 Nov, 06:0017,197 MW18,200 MW
8 Nov, 07:0017,681 MW18,687 MW
8 Nov, 08:0017,226 MW18,565 MW
8 Nov, 09:0016,560 MW17,662 MW
8 Nov, 10:0016,062 MW16,893 MW
8 Nov, 11:0015,789 MW16,483 MW
8 Nov, 12:0015,661 MW16,163 MW
8 Nov, 13:0015,694 MW15,911 MW
8 Nov, 14:0015,762 MW15,838 MW
8 Nov, 15:0015,829 MW16,131 MW
8 Nov, 16:0016,409 MW16,614 MW
8 Nov, 17:0017,256 MW17,456 MW
8 Nov, 18:0017,351 MW17,692 MW
8 Nov, 19:0017,291 MW17,788 MW
8 Nov, 20:0017,035 MW17,709 MW
8 Nov, 21:0016,523 MW17,319 MW
8 Nov, 22:0015,891 MW16,793 MW
8 Nov, 23:0015,531 MW16,491 MW
9 Nov, 00:0015,401 MW15,921 MW
9 Nov, 01:0015,262 MW15,914 MW
9 Nov, 02:0015,461 MW16,110 MW
9 Nov, 03:0015,688 MW16,539 MW
9 Nov, 04:0016,290 MW17,214 MW
9 Nov, 05:0017,763 MW18,706 MW
9 Nov, 06:0019,273 MW20,078 MW
9 Nov, 07:0018,976 MW20,131 MW
9 Nov, 08:0018,119 MW19,414 MW
9 Nov, 09:0017,501 MW18,514 MW
9 Nov, 10:0017,261 MW18,090 MW
9 Nov, 11:0017,231 MW17,729 MW
9 Nov, 12:0017,121 MW17,463 MW
9 Nov, 13:0017,106 MW17,261 MW
9 Nov, 14:0017,026 MW17,177 MW
9 Nov, 15:0017,163 MW17,307 MW
9 Nov, 16:0017,457 MW17,787 MW
9 Nov, 17:0018,137 MW18,625 MW
9 Nov, 18:0018,109 MW18,647 MW
9 Nov, 19:0017,782 MW18,490 MW
9 Nov, 20:0017,438 MW18,194 MW
9 Nov, 21:0016,966 MW17,598 MW
9 Nov, 22:0016,098 MW16,965 MW
9 Nov, 23:0015,436 MW16,286 MW
10 Nov, 00:0015,251 MW15,527 MW
10 Nov, 01:0015,381 MW15,428 MW
10 Nov, 02:0015,227 MW15,604 MW
10 Nov, 03:0015,416 MW15,820 MW
10 Nov, 04:0015,798 MW16,465 MW
10 Nov, 05:0017,218 MW17,908 MW
10 Nov, 06:0018,599 MW19,268 MW
10 Nov, 07:0018,526 MW19,277 MW
10 Nov, 08:0017,772 MW18,670 MW
10 Nov, 09:0017,106 MW18,056 MW
10 Nov, 10:0016,998 MW17,791 MW
10 Nov, 11:0017,045 MW17,461 MW
10 Nov, 12:0016,961 MW17,254 MW
10 Nov, 13:0016,936 MW17,142 MW
10 Nov, 14:0016,913 MW16,972 MW
10 Nov, 15:0017,020 MW16,984 MW
10 Nov, 16:0017,293 MW17,407 MW
10 Nov, 17:0017,861 MW18,316 MW
10 Nov, 18:0017,814 MW18,154 MW
10 Nov, 19:0017,596 MW17,910 MW
10 Nov, 20:0017,238 MW17,608 MW
10 Nov, 21:0016,652 MW16,917 MW
10 Nov, 22:0016,091 MW16,327 MW
10 Nov, 23:0015,355 MW15,553 MW
11 Nov, 00:0015,146 MW15,159 MW
11 Nov, 01:0015,063 MW15,018 MW
11 Nov, 02:0015,104 MW14,963 MW
11 Nov, 03:0015,221 MW15,036 MW
11 Nov, 04:0015,647 MW15,368 MW
11 Nov, 05:0016,846 MW16,447 MW
11 Nov, 06:0017,883 MW17,467 MW
11 Nov, 07:0018,027 MW17,496 MW
11 Nov, 08:0017,558 MW17,355 MW
11 Nov, 09:0017,262 MW17,352 MW
11 Nov, 10:0017,207 MW17,355 MW
11 Nov, 11:0017,096 MW17,424 MW
11 Nov, 12:0016,966 MW17,519 MW
11 Nov, 13:0016,952 MW17,523 MW
11 Nov, 14:0016,904 MW17,514 MW
11 Nov, 15:0016,971 MW17,552 MW
11 Nov, 16:0017,304 MW17,914 MW
11 Nov, 17:0017,931 MW18,559 MW
11 Nov, 18:0017,970 MW18,269 MW
11 Nov, 19:0017,644 MW17,942 MW
11 Nov, 20:0017,181 MW17,442 MW
11 Nov, 21:0016,385 MW16,649 MW
11 Nov, 22:0015,619 MW16,097 MW
11 Nov, 23:0014,788 MW15,224 MW
12 Nov, 00:0014,329 MW14,170 MW
12 Nov, 01:0014,076 MW13,803 MW
12 Nov, 02:0013,921 MW13,735 MW
12 Nov, 03:0013,837 MW13,842 MW
12 Nov, 04:0014,428 MW14,401 MW
12 Nov, 05:0015,362 MW16,111 MW
12 Nov, 06:0015,362 MW17,744 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tva_2026,
  title = {{TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/}
}

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