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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy North came 16 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 479 MW, against average demand of 18,085 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%87%
Worst miss2,522 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-15 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 21,215 MW, reported 18,693 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:0022,748 MW22,556 MW
5 Nov, 15:0023,241 MW22,937 MW
5 Nov, 16:0023,507 MW23,408 MW
5 Nov, 17:0023,703 MW23,968 MW
5 Nov, 18:0023,435 MW23,740 MW
5 Nov, 19:0023,222 MW23,343 MW
5 Nov, 20:0021,941 MW22,056 MW
5 Nov, 21:0020,323 MW20,376 MW
5 Nov, 22:0018,433 MW18,251 MW
5 Nov, 23:0017,062 MW16,942 MW
6 Nov, 00:0015,894 MW15,720 MW
6 Nov, 01:0015,175 MW14,907 MW
6 Nov, 02:0014,876 MW14,639 MW
6 Nov, 03:0014,815 MW14,640 MW
6 Nov, 04:0015,075 MW14,853 MW
6 Nov, 05:0016,213 MW15,796 MW
6 Nov, 06:0019,268 MW18,888 MW
6 Nov, 07:0022,173 MW21,888 MW
6 Nov, 08:0024,157 MW23,731 MW
6 Nov, 09:0024,708 MW23,981 MW
6 Nov, 10:0024,580 MW23,857 MW
6 Nov, 11:0024,430 MW23,645 MW
6 Nov, 12:0023,135 MW22,518 MW
6 Nov, 13:0023,233 MW22,737 MW
6 Nov, 14:0023,510 MW23,297 MW
6 Nov, 15:0023,582 MW23,341 MW
6 Nov, 16:0023,570 MW23,298 MW
6 Nov, 17:0023,773 MW23,207 MW
6 Nov, 18:0023,473 MW22,943 MW
6 Nov, 19:0023,045 MW22,479 MW
6 Nov, 20:0021,737 MW21,214 MW
6 Nov, 21:0020,030 MW19,523 MW
6 Nov, 22:0017,967 MW17,688 MW
6 Nov, 23:0016,727 MW16,421 MW
7 Nov, 00:0015,680 MW15,777 MW
7 Nov, 01:0014,800 MW14,973 MW
7 Nov, 02:0014,401 MW14,507 MW
7 Nov, 03:0014,173 MW14,302 MW
7 Nov, 04:0014,236 MW14,224 MW
7 Nov, 05:0014,632 MW14,542 MW
7 Nov, 06:0015,774 MW15,819 MW
7 Nov, 07:0017,124 MW17,008 MW
7 Nov, 08:0018,335 MW18,147 MW
7 Nov, 09:0019,119 MW18,867 MW
7 Nov, 10:0019,188 MW18,631 MW
7 Nov, 11:0018,909 MW18,159 MW
7 Nov, 12:0018,233 MW17,338 MW
7 Nov, 13:0017,627 MW16,663 MW
7 Nov, 14:0017,203 MW16,495 MW
7 Nov, 15:0016,994 MW16,475 MW
7 Nov, 16:0017,287 MW16,797 MW
7 Nov, 17:0018,188 MW17,840 MW
7 Nov, 18:0018,648 MW18,796 MW
7 Nov, 19:0018,736 MW18,922 MW
7 Nov, 20:0017,891 MW17,795 MW
7 Nov, 21:0016,663 MW16,397 MW
7 Nov, 22:0015,452 MW15,197 MW
7 Nov, 23:0014,462 MW14,292 MW
8 Nov, 00:0013,698 MW13,648 MW
8 Nov, 01:0013,096 MW12,936 MW
8 Nov, 02:0012,662 MW12,544 MW
8 Nov, 03:0012,508 MW12,254 MW
8 Nov, 04:0012,506 MW12,141 MW
8 Nov, 05:0012,914 MW12,520 MW
8 Nov, 06:0013,699 MW13,037 MW
8 Nov, 07:0014,072 MW13,293 MW
8 Nov, 08:0014,866 MW13,492 MW
8 Nov, 09:0015,379 MW13,857 MW
8 Nov, 10:0015,573 MW13,773 MW
8 Nov, 11:0015,604 MW13,816 MW
8 Nov, 12:0015,388 MW13,792 MW
8 Nov, 13:0015,038 MW13,328 MW
8 Nov, 14:0014,729 MW13,667 MW
8 Nov, 15:0014,849 MW14,197 MW
8 Nov, 16:0015,474 MW15,017 MW
8 Nov, 17:0016,867 MW16,285 MW
8 Nov, 18:0017,642 MW17,394 MW
8 Nov, 19:0017,990 MW17,745 MW
8 Nov, 20:0017,551 MW17,025 MW
8 Nov, 21:0016,636 MW15,922 MW
8 Nov, 22:0015,340 MW14,672 MW
8 Nov, 23:0014,311 MW13,509 MW
9 Nov, 00:0013,400 MW12,663 MW
9 Nov, 01:0012,828 MW11,984 MW
9 Nov, 02:0012,406 MW11,827 MW
9 Nov, 03:0012,430 MW11,917 MW
9 Nov, 04:0012,903 MW12,301 MW
9 Nov, 05:0014,309 MW13,879 MW
9 Nov, 06:0017,889 MW17,794 MW
9 Nov, 07:0020,780 MW21,430 MW
9 Nov, 08:0022,999 MW24,017 MW
9 Nov, 09:0024,148 MW24,561 MW
9 Nov, 10:0024,139 MW24,389 MW
9 Nov, 11:0024,162 MW24,210 MW
9 Nov, 12:0023,291 MW23,239 MW
9 Nov, 13:0023,413 MW23,764 MW
9 Nov, 14:0023,680 MW24,408 MW
9 Nov, 15:0023,342 MW24,637 MW
9 Nov, 16:0023,217 MW24,516 MW
9 Nov, 17:0023,236 MW24,345 MW
9 Nov, 18:0022,769 MW23,779 MW
9 Nov, 19:0022,344 MW23,210 MW
9 Nov, 20:0021,274 MW22,228 MW
9 Nov, 21:0019,821 MW20,222 MW
9 Nov, 22:0018,015 MW17,944 MW
9 Nov, 23:0016,552 MW16,499 MW
10 Nov, 00:0015,519 MW15,399 MW
10 Nov, 01:0014,855 MW14,665 MW
10 Nov, 02:0014,423 MW14,281 MW
10 Nov, 03:0014,349 MW14,267 MW
10 Nov, 04:0014,600 MW14,492 MW
10 Nov, 05:0015,777 MW15,777 MW
10 Nov, 06:0018,995 MW19,500 MW
10 Nov, 07:0021,891 MW23,018 MW
10 Nov, 08:0024,459 MW25,663 MW
10 Nov, 09:0025,156 MW25,968 MW
10 Nov, 10:0025,168 MW25,938 MW
10 Nov, 11:0025,229 MW25,751 MW
10 Nov, 12:0023,709 MW24,217 MW
10 Nov, 13:0023,639 MW24,599 MW
10 Nov, 14:0023,794 MW25,043 MW
10 Nov, 15:0023,534 MW25,064 MW
10 Nov, 16:0023,278 MW25,008 MW
10 Nov, 17:0023,025 MW24,799 MW
10 Nov, 18:0022,723 MW24,116 MW
10 Nov, 19:0022,422 MW23,539 MW
10 Nov, 20:0021,306 MW22,203 MW
10 Nov, 21:0020,134 MW20,396 MW
10 Nov, 22:0018,087 MW18,254 MW
10 Nov, 23:0016,646 MW16,714 MW
11 Nov, 00:0015,568 MW15,767 MW
11 Nov, 01:0014,844 MW14,870 MW
11 Nov, 02:0014,571 MW14,523 MW
11 Nov, 03:0014,547 MW14,512 MW
11 Nov, 04:0014,742 MW14,775 MW
11 Nov, 05:0015,779 MW15,852 MW
11 Nov, 06:0018,919 MW19,038 MW
11 Nov, 07:0021,555 MW21,969 MW
11 Nov, 08:0023,780 MW24,199 MW
11 Nov, 09:0024,307 MW24,954 MW
11 Nov, 10:0024,518 MW24,879 MW
11 Nov, 11:0024,360 MW24,993 MW
11 Nov, 12:0023,197 MW23,968 MW
11 Nov, 13:0023,426 MW24,080 MW
11 Nov, 14:0023,922 MW24,480 MW
11 Nov, 15:0023,591 MW24,384 MW
11 Nov, 16:0023,410 MW24,403 MW
11 Nov, 17:0022,914 MW24,766 MW
11 Nov, 18:0022,400 MW24,264 MW
11 Nov, 19:0022,035 MW23,751 MW
11 Nov, 20:0021,423 MW22,296 MW
11 Nov, 21:0020,248 MW20,528 MW
11 Nov, 22:0018,309 MW18,456 MW
11 Nov, 23:0016,858 MW16,988 MW
12 Nov, 00:0015,830 MW15,621 MW
12 Nov, 01:0015,088 MW14,858 MW
12 Nov, 02:0014,697 MW14,465 MW
12 Nov, 03:0014,579 MW14,392 MW
12 Nov, 04:0014,804 MW14,580 MW
12 Nov, 05:0015,979 MW15,658 MW
12 Nov, 06:0019,221 MW18,965 MW
12 Nov, 07:0021,507 MW21,914 MW
12 Nov, 08:0023,917 MW24,533 MW
12 Nov, 09:0024,499 MW25,232 MW
12 Nov, 10:0025,358 MW25,262 MW
12 Nov, 11:0025,809 MW25,266 MW
12 Nov, 12:0025,101 MW24,250 MW
12 Nov, 13:0025,377 MW24,305 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_nord_2026,
  title = {{Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/}
}

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