Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Poland was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Warsaw).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Poland was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Poland came 7 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 384 MW, against average demand of 19,336 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 60% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error2.0%

Bias+0.3%

Hours within 5%92%

Worst miss2,479 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+65 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 22,238 MW, reported 19,759 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Poland over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00	22,681 MW	22,438 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	22,923 MW	22,500 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	23,390 MW	23,113 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	23,640 MW	23,475 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	23,452 MW	23,350 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	23,247 MW	23,263 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	22,619 MW	22,475 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	21,017 MW	20,838 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	19,562 MW	19,300 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	18,165 MW	17,888 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	17,479 MW	17,213 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	16,963 MW	16,713 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	16,790 MW	16,600 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	16,846 MW	16,650 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	17,244 MW	17,113 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	18,462 MW	18,288 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	20,864 MW	20,650 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	22,541 MW	22,438 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	23,210 MW	23,163 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	23,389 MW	23,075 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	22,941 MW	23,100 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	23,165 MW	23,263 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	23,087 MW	23,475 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	23,097 MW	23,188 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	22,904 MW	22,875 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	22,976 MW	22,900 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	23,291 MW	23,188 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	23,565 MW	23,400 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	23,353 MW	23,200 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	23,229 MW	23,063 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	22,418 MW	22,525 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	20,992 MW	20,888 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	19,721 MW	19,350 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	18,459 MW	17,938 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	17,573 MW	17,125 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	17,065 MW	16,538 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	16,725 MW	16,213 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	16,698 MW	16,200 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	16,799 MW	16,263 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	17,144 MW	16,638 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	18,001 MW	17,500 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	18,813 MW	18,425 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	19,697 MW	19,525 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	19,994 MW	20,000 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	19,912 MW	19,875 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	19,706 MW	19,750 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	19,659 MW	19,750 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	19,833 MW	19,713 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	20,200 MW	19,650 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	20,248 MW	19,838 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	20,630 MW	20,513 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	20,760 MW	20,513 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	20,597 MW	20,238 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	20,397 MW	20,038 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	19,992 MW	19,425 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	19,024 MW	18,438 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	18,055 MW	17,363 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	16,898 MW	16,200 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	16,208 MW	15,313 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	15,714 MW	14,625 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	15,424 MW	14,288 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	15,342 MW	14,250 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	15,508 MW	14,275 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	15,820 MW	14,538 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	16,158 MW	14,888 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	16,625 MW	15,550 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	17,092 MW	16,600 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	17,334 MW	17,275 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	17,498 MW	17,513 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	17,531 MW	17,738 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	17,796 MW	17,688 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	18,255 MW	17,813 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	18,635 MW	17,663 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	18,739 MW	17,775 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	19,340 MW	18,613 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	19,689 MW	19,113 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	19,868 MW	19,150 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	19,922 MW	19,013 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	19,564 MW	18,413 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	18,751 MW	17,525 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	17,960 MW	16,663 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	16,955 MW	15,700 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	16,384 MW	14,625 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	16,160 MW	14,150 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	16,031 MW	14,100 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	16,178 MW	14,175 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	16,692 MW	14,775 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	18,080 MW	16,363 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	21,035 MW	19,663 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	22,695 MW	21,550 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	23,427 MW	22,838 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	22,927 MW	23,063 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	22,575 MW	22,663 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	22,584 MW	23,088 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	22,799 MW	23,300 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	23,019 MW	23,100 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	23,227 MW	23,000 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	23,270 MW	23,163 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	23,822 MW	23,600 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	23,935 MW	23,700 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	23,916 MW	23,450 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	23,722 MW	23,388 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	23,139 MW	22,675 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	21,445 MW	21,125 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	20,079 MW	19,538 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	18,821 MW	18,288 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	17,970 MW	17,625 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	17,438 MW	17,013 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	17,279 MW	16,900 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	17,335 MW	16,950 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	17,828 MW	17,413 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	18,933 MW	18,588 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	21,394 MW	21,238 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	22,851 MW	22,925 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	23,512 MW	23,663 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	23,698 MW	23,725 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	23,853 MW	23,625 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	24,460 MW	23,813 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	24,917 MW	24,013 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	24,381 MW	23,875 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	23,897 MW	23,738 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	23,628 MW	23,713 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	24,048 MW	24,138 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	23,935 MW	24,050 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	23,553 MW	23,788 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	23,306 MW	23,675 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	22,600 MW	23,025 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	21,001 MW	21,338 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	19,688 MW	19,900 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	18,399 MW	18,550 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	17,574 MW	16,825 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	16,843 MW	16,038 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	16,463 MW	15,563 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	16,382 MW	15,325 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	16,314 MW	15,263 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	16,105 MW	15,163 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	16,209 MW	15,113 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	16,636 MW	15,625 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	17,579 MW	16,575 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	18,272 MW	17,538 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	18,707 MW	18,300 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	19,097 MW	18,638 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	19,604 MW	18,750 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	19,967 MW	18,788 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	19,751 MW	18,600 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	19,446 MW	18,538 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	19,707 MW	19,175 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	19,645 MW	19,175 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	19,710 MW	19,088 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	19,549 MW	18,838 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	19,181 MW	18,275 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	18,285 MW	17,363 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	17,530 MW	16,513 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	16,476 MW	15,525 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	15,835 MW	15,338 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	15,480 MW	14,938 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	15,253 MW	14,813 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	15,414 MW	14,863 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	15,877 MW	15,438 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	16,974 MW	17,050 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	19,831 MW	20,350 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	21,492 MW	22,238 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	22,676 MW	23,038 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	22,790 MW	23,013 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	22,625 MW	22,975 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	22,887 MW	23,400 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	22,840 MW	23,488 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	23,038 MW	23,400 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pl_2026,
  title = {{Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.

Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related