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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for MISO was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for MISO was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, MISO came 10 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,537 MW, against average demand of 69,711 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 93% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.2%
Bias+2.1%
Hours within 5%95%
Worst miss5,043 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,437 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 90,271 MW, reported 85,228 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
MISO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for MISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for MISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:0071,554 MW75,132 MW
5 Nov, 09:0072,024 MW75,330 MW
5 Nov, 10:0072,569 MW75,317 MW
5 Nov, 11:0073,388 MW75,464 MW
5 Nov, 12:0073,642 MW75,772 MW
5 Nov, 13:0074,528 MW76,127 MW
5 Nov, 14:0075,140 MW76,442 MW
5 Nov, 15:0074,996 MW76,474 MW
5 Nov, 16:0074,841 MW76,286 MW
5 Nov, 17:0075,819 MW77,327 MW
5 Nov, 18:0076,809 MW78,380 MW
5 Nov, 19:0076,212 MW78,052 MW
5 Nov, 20:0074,903 MW76,831 MW
5 Nov, 21:0073,086 MW74,836 MW
5 Nov, 22:0070,786 MW72,037 MW
5 Nov, 23:0068,427 MW68,932 MW
6 Nov, 00:0066,122 MW68,141 MW
6 Nov, 01:0064,490 MW65,823 MW
6 Nov, 02:0062,905 MW64,650 MW
6 Nov, 03:0061,840 MW65,105 MW
6 Nov, 04:0061,485 MW65,018 MW
6 Nov, 05:0062,283 MW66,860 MW
6 Nov, 06:0065,477 MW69,592 MW
6 Nov, 07:0069,903 MW74,078 MW
6 Nov, 08:0071,772 MW75,714 MW
6 Nov, 09:0071,600 MW75,694 MW
6 Nov, 10:0071,644 MW75,332 MW
6 Nov, 11:0071,866 MW75,071 MW
6 Nov, 12:0071,852 MW74,797 MW
6 Nov, 13:0071,864 MW74,597 MW
6 Nov, 14:0071,803 MW74,525 MW
6 Nov, 15:0072,067 MW74,517 MW
6 Nov, 16:0072,505 MW74,398 MW
6 Nov, 17:0074,081 MW75,702 MW
6 Nov, 18:0075,669 MW76,800 MW
6 Nov, 19:0075,035 MW76,325 MW
6 Nov, 20:0073,632 MW75,317 MW
6 Nov, 21:0072,300 MW73,885 MW
6 Nov, 22:0070,345 MW71,683 MW
6 Nov, 23:0067,884 MW70,126 MW
7 Nov, 00:0065,597 MW66,721 MW
7 Nov, 01:0063,906 MW65,048 MW
7 Nov, 02:0063,162 MW63,967 MW
7 Nov, 03:0062,707 MW63,420 MW
7 Nov, 04:0062,708 MW63,471 MW
7 Nov, 05:0062,925 MW64,217 MW
7 Nov, 06:0064,070 MW65,943 MW
7 Nov, 07:0065,764 MW68,072 MW
7 Nov, 08:0067,184 MW69,381 MW
7 Nov, 09:0067,978 MW70,320 MW
7 Nov, 10:0067,812 MW70,001 MW
7 Nov, 11:0067,457 MW69,551 MW
7 Nov, 12:0067,420 MW68,890 MW
7 Nov, 13:0066,925 MW68,323 MW
7 Nov, 14:0066,691 MW67,999 MW
7 Nov, 15:0066,909 MW68,174 MW
7 Nov, 16:0067,644 MW68,615 MW
7 Nov, 17:0069,709 MW70,882 MW
7 Nov, 18:0071,937 MW72,916 MW
7 Nov, 19:0071,706 MW73,054 MW
7 Nov, 20:0070,842 MW72,395 MW
7 Nov, 21:0069,605 MW71,248 MW
7 Nov, 22:0067,995 MW69,452 MW
7 Nov, 23:0066,619 MW67,278 MW
8 Nov, 00:0064,744 MW65,482 MW
8 Nov, 01:0063,140 MW64,094 MW
8 Nov, 02:0062,156 MW63,238 MW
8 Nov, 03:0061,642 MW62,715 MW
8 Nov, 04:0061,322 MW62,795 MW
8 Nov, 05:0061,274 MW63,755 MW
8 Nov, 06:0062,336 MW65,531 MW
8 Nov, 07:0064,133 MW67,234 MW
8 Nov, 08:0065,429 MW68,538 MW
8 Nov, 09:0065,283 MW68,243 MW
8 Nov, 10:0065,235 MW67,527 MW
8 Nov, 11:0065,130 MW66,936 MW
8 Nov, 12:0064,851 MW66,649 MW
8 Nov, 13:0064,848 MW66,589 MW
8 Nov, 14:0064,760 MW66,813 MW
8 Nov, 15:0064,720 MW67,399 MW
8 Nov, 16:0065,655 MW68,210 MW
8 Nov, 17:0068,598 MW71,072 MW
8 Nov, 18:0071,457 MW73,481 MW
8 Nov, 19:0071,958 MW73,474 MW
8 Nov, 20:0071,076 MW72,606 MW
8 Nov, 21:0069,564 MW71,162 MW
8 Nov, 22:0067,565 MW69,053 MW
8 Nov, 23:0065,727 MW67,340 MW
9 Nov, 00:0063,971 MW65,431 MW
9 Nov, 01:0062,333 MW64,437 MW
9 Nov, 02:0061,305 MW64,717 MW
9 Nov, 03:0061,387 MW64,624 MW
9 Nov, 04:0062,065 MW64,873 MW
9 Nov, 05:0063,939 MW66,471 MW
9 Nov, 06:0068,091 MW71,039 MW
9 Nov, 07:0072,960 MW75,403 MW
9 Nov, 08:0074,698 MW76,897 MW
9 Nov, 09:0073,446 MW76,470 MW
9 Nov, 10:0072,180 MW75,699 MW
9 Nov, 11:0071,857 MW75,183 MW
9 Nov, 12:0071,789 MW74,819 MW
9 Nov, 13:0071,698 MW74,577 MW
9 Nov, 14:0071,763 MW74,287 MW
9 Nov, 15:0071,608 MW74,159 MW
9 Nov, 16:0072,676 MW74,753 MW
9 Nov, 17:0074,213 MW76,558 MW
9 Nov, 18:0076,237 MW78,173 MW
9 Nov, 19:0076,213 MW77,866 MW
9 Nov, 20:0075,091 MW76,552 MW
9 Nov, 21:0073,163 MW74,680 MW
9 Nov, 22:0071,057 MW71,959 MW
9 Nov, 23:0068,321 MW69,728 MW
10 Nov, 00:0066,369 MW66,935 MW
10 Nov, 01:0064,926 MW65,301 MW
10 Nov, 02:0063,746 MW65,270 MW
10 Nov, 03:0062,912 MW64,880 MW
10 Nov, 04:0063,187 MW64,724 MW
10 Nov, 05:0064,265 MW66,749 MW
10 Nov, 06:0067,808 MW69,847 MW
10 Nov, 07:0072,084 MW73,860 MW
10 Nov, 08:0073,296 MW75,164 MW
10 Nov, 09:0072,112 MW74,640 MW
10 Nov, 10:0071,430 MW73,994 MW
10 Nov, 11:0071,096 MW73,540 MW
10 Nov, 12:0071,761 MW73,507 MW
10 Nov, 13:0072,329 MW73,648 MW
10 Nov, 14:0072,534 MW73,828 MW
10 Nov, 15:0072,684 MW73,903 MW
10 Nov, 16:0072,986 MW74,341 MW
10 Nov, 17:0074,321 MW75,814 MW
10 Nov, 18:0075,791 MW77,156 MW
10 Nov, 19:0075,592 MW76,800 MW
10 Nov, 20:0074,328 MW75,533 MW
10 Nov, 21:0072,510 MW73,758 MW
10 Nov, 22:0070,597 MW71,281 MW
10 Nov, 23:0068,075 MW68,552 MW
11 Nov, 00:0065,378 MW66,707 MW
11 Nov, 01:0063,861 MW64,653 MW
11 Nov, 02:0062,901 MW63,576 MW
11 Nov, 03:0062,399 MW64,042 MW
11 Nov, 04:0062,681 MW64,398 MW
11 Nov, 05:0063,314 MW65,190 MW
11 Nov, 06:0066,266 MW68,838 MW
11 Nov, 07:0070,308 MW73,430 MW
11 Nov, 08:0072,625 MW75,140 MW
11 Nov, 09:0072,867 MW75,088 MW
11 Nov, 10:0072,679 MW74,745 MW
11 Nov, 11:0072,426 MW74,683 MW
11 Nov, 12:0072,939 MW74,856 MW
11 Nov, 13:0073,507 MW75,131 MW
11 Nov, 14:0073,643 MW75,423 MW
11 Nov, 15:0073,741 MW75,600 MW
11 Nov, 16:0073,375 MW75,424 MW
11 Nov, 17:0075,159 MW76,794 MW
11 Nov, 18:0077,054 MW77,979 MW
11 Nov, 19:0076,937 MW77,472 MW
11 Nov, 20:0075,436 MW76,269 MW
11 Nov, 21:0073,955 MW75,089 MW
11 Nov, 22:0071,656 MW72,519 MW
11 Nov, 23:0069,101 MW69,624 MW
12 Nov, 00:0069,057 MW68,139 MW
12 Nov, 01:0067,642 MW65,628 MW
12 Nov, 02:0066,489 MW64,641 MW
12 Nov, 03:0066,021 MW64,798 MW
12 Nov, 04:0066,534 MW64,326 MW
12 Nov, 05:0068,191 MW66,321 MW
12 Nov, 06:0071,830 MW70,218 MW
12 Nov, 07:0074,282 MW74,282 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_miso_2026,
  title = {{MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/}
}

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