PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PJM was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,821 MW (9.4%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 05:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for PJM was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,821 MW (9.4%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 05:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PJM came 18 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 2,590 MW, against average demand of 86,913 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 28% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.0%

Bias-1.5%

Hours within 5%84%

Worst miss7,821 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,296 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 7,821 MW (9.4%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 05:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 91,321 MW, reported 83,500 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PJM over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:00	90,540 MW	89,567 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	92,080 MW	89,718 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	93,129 MW	90,004 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	93,386 MW	90,574 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	93,985 MW	91,376 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	94,559 MW	92,091 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	94,317 MW	92,985 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	94,450 MW	94,340 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	95,561 MW	95,837 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	97,878 MW	96,108 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	97,794 MW	95,347 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	96,559 MW	93,127 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	94,759 MW	90,191 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	91,661 MW	85,899 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	88,209 MW	81,571 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	84,800 MW	78,555 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	82,105 MW	76,134 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	80,528 MW	74,671 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	79,560 MW	74,057 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	79,261 MW	74,761 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	79,753 MW	77,817 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	81,689 MW	83,203 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	85,920 MW	87,637 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	89,439 MW	89,460 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	91,017 MW	89,793 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	91,907 MW	89,545 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	92,327 MW	89,389 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	92,472 MW	89,523 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	92,214 MW	89,692 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	91,693 MW	89,790 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	90,929 MW	90,222 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	90,815 MW	91,066 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	91,934 MW	92,069 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	94,530 MW	91,991 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	93,975 MW	91,339 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	92,396 MW	89,487 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	90,547 MW	87,283 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	88,214 MW	84,278 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	85,316 MW	80,621 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	82,920 MW	78,349 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	80,482 MW	76,960 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	78,682 MW	75,829 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	78,173 MW	75,373 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	77,974 MW	75,698 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	77,753 MW	77,271 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	79,068 MW	79,852 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	80,105 MW	82,639 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	81,572 MW	84,394 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	84,157 MW	84,470 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	85,264 MW	83,675 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	85,697 MW	82,781 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	85,661 MW	81,965 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	85,243 MW	81,299 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	85,132 MW	80,985 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	85,093 MW	81,557 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	84,973 MW	83,204 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	86,723 MW	85,683 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	89,572 MW	87,614 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	90,377 MW	88,609 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	90,008 MW	88,185 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	88,982 MW	86,813 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	87,229 MW	84,785 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	85,130 MW	82,263 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	83,480 MW	80,279 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	81,765 MW	79,314 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	81,025 MW	78,519 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	80,519 MW	78,128 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	79,987 MW	78,650 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	80,130 MW	79,891 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	80,155 MW	82,212 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	81,412 MW	84,404 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	83,250 MW	85,462 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	84,007 MW	84,779 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	83,260 MW	83,637 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	82,407 MW	82,904 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	81,547 MW	82,531 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	81,345 MW	82,279 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	81,791 MW	82,334 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	82,265 MW	83,385 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	82,890 MW	85,715 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	85,551 MW	89,166 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	90,135 MW	90,854 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	91,515 MW	91,531 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	90,916 MW	90,683 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	89,600 MW	88,583 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	87,163 MW	85,690 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	84,272 MW	82,811 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	82,152 MW	80,732 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	79,752 MW	78,837 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	78,497 MW	78,323 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	78,416 MW	78,527 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	78,697 MW	80,391 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	79,536 MW	84,577 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	83,500 MW	91,321 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	90,332 MW	95,559 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	93,817 MW	95,635 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	92,547 MW	93,723 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	90,908 MW	92,205 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	91,266 MW	91,136 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	91,244 MW	90,487 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	91,433 MW	90,279 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	90,443 MW	90,055 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	90,145 MW	90,583 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	90,146 MW	92,276 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	92,015 MW	95,418 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	95,968 MW	96,685 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	97,005 MW	96,703 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	96,118 MW	95,520 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	94,557 MW	93,015 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	91,878 MW	89,289 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	88,412 MW	85,757 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	85,511 MW	83,365 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	83,638 MW	80,715 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	82,306 MW	79,990 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	81,933 MW	80,124 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	81,735 MW	81,704 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	83,183 MW	85,769 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	86,206 MW	92,241 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	92,768 MW	95,872 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	95,701 MW	94,985 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	93,811 MW	91,972 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	91,243 MW	89,661 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	90,123 MW	88,143 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	89,160 MW	87,375 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	88,577 MW	87,302 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	88,464 MW	87,312 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	89,097 MW	88,025 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	89,579 MW	90,012 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	91,397 MW	92,777 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	94,828 MW	93,890 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	95,405 MW	94,047 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	94,335 MW	93,036 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	92,575 MW	90,572 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	89,928 MW	86,798 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	86,763 MW	83,002 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	83,601 MW	80,817 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	82,056 MW	78,797 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	81,352 MW	78,068 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	80,811 MW	78,203 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	80,878 MW	79,836 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	82,222 MW	83,774 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	84,213 MW	90,325 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	89,982 MW	93,959 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	93,027 MW	93,233 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	92,009 MW	90,560 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	91,156 MW	88,508 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	90,671 MW	87,064 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	90,045 MW	86,592 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	89,901 MW	86,675 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	90,775 MW	86,949 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	90,399 MW	87,972 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	90,121 MW	90,110 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	91,909 MW	93,288 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	95,378 MW	94,236 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	95,802 MW	94,174 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	94,629 MW	92,805 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	92,912 MW	90,294 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	89,951 MW	86,539 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	86,420 MW	82,846 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	83,280 MW	79,952 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	81,179 MW	78,208 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	80,255 MW	77,206 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	79,514 MW	77,053 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	79,477 MW	78,481 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	80,824 MW	82,183 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	82,972 MW	88,459 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	88,940 MW	92,363 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	92,489 MW	92,604 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pjm_2026,
  title = {{PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/

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PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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