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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 297 MW (9.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 297 MW (9.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway Central (NO3) came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 61 MW, against average demand of 3,181 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 38% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error1.9%
Bias-0.8%
Hours within 5%94%
Worst miss297 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-29 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 297 MW (9.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,986 MW, reported 3,283 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway Central (NO3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:003,416 MW3,431 MW
5 Nov, 15:003,459 MW3,452 MW
5 Nov, 16:003,522 MW3,470 MW
5 Nov, 17:003,478 MW3,493 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,461 MW3,493 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,482 MW3,490 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,473 MW3,493 MW
5 Nov, 21:003,431 MW3,448 MW
5 Nov, 22:003,382 MW3,395 MW
5 Nov, 23:003,302 MW3,308 MW
6 Nov, 00:003,222 MW3,180 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,177 MW3,151 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,140 MW3,114 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,151 MW3,107 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,147 MW3,122 MW
6 Nov, 05:003,196 MW3,168 MW
6 Nov, 06:003,336 MW3,316 MW
6 Nov, 07:003,570 MW3,488 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,659 MW3,563 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,674 MW3,584 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,616 MW3,573 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,576 MW3,536 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,544 MW3,513 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,517 MW3,502 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,526 MW3,479 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,558 MW3,486 MW
6 Nov, 16:003,634 MW3,500 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,673 MW3,487 MW
6 Nov, 18:003,651 MW3,489 MW
6 Nov, 19:003,581 MW3,477 MW
6 Nov, 20:003,527 MW3,443 MW
6 Nov, 21:003,470 MW3,376 MW
6 Nov, 22:003,410 MW3,306 MW
6 Nov, 23:003,356 MW3,208 MW
7 Nov, 00:003,286 MW3,188 MW
7 Nov, 01:003,226 MW3,154 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,184 MW3,103 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,164 MW3,090 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,149 MW3,051 MW
7 Nov, 05:003,144 MW3,051 MW
7 Nov, 06:003,158 MW3,126 MW
7 Nov, 07:003,228 MW3,195 MW
7 Nov, 08:003,297 MW3,273 MW
7 Nov, 09:003,374 MW3,339 MW
7 Nov, 10:003,415 MW3,357 MW
7 Nov, 11:003,395 MW3,354 MW
7 Nov, 12:003,395 MW3,340 MW
7 Nov, 13:003,385 MW3,314 MW
7 Nov, 14:003,361 MW3,309 MW
7 Nov, 15:003,372 MW3,324 MW
7 Nov, 16:003,400 MW3,365 MW
7 Nov, 17:003,425 MW3,369 MW
7 Nov, 18:003,398 MW3,395 MW
7 Nov, 19:003,374 MW3,372 MW
7 Nov, 20:003,306 MW3,336 MW
7 Nov, 21:003,272 MW3,270 MW
7 Nov, 22:003,241 MW3,234 MW
7 Nov, 23:003,189 MW3,162 MW
8 Nov, 00:003,136 MW3,147 MW
8 Nov, 01:003,097 MW3,098 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,061 MW3,065 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,047 MW3,055 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,042 MW3,037 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,043 MW3,026 MW
8 Nov, 06:003,080 MW3,066 MW
8 Nov, 07:003,145 MW3,113 MW
8 Nov, 08:003,197 MW3,173 MW
8 Nov, 09:003,274 MW3,192 MW
8 Nov, 10:003,305 MW3,238 MW
8 Nov, 11:003,330 MW3,274 MW
8 Nov, 12:003,333 MW3,256 MW
8 Nov, 13:003,329 MW3,249 MW
8 Nov, 14:003,349 MW3,269 MW
8 Nov, 15:003,388 MW3,303 MW
8 Nov, 16:003,432 MW3,340 MW
8 Nov, 17:003,444 MW3,345 MW
8 Nov, 18:003,428 MW3,390 MW
8 Nov, 19:003,426 MW3,366 MW
8 Nov, 20:003,433 MW3,363 MW
8 Nov, 21:003,396 MW3,327 MW
8 Nov, 22:003,355 MW3,293 MW
8 Nov, 23:003,270 MW3,220 MW
9 Nov, 00:003,175 MW3,157 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,113 MW3,115 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,080 MW3,088 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,072 MW3,080 MW
9 Nov, 04:003,093 MW3,115 MW
9 Nov, 05:003,146 MW3,122 MW
9 Nov, 06:003,275 MW3,277 MW
9 Nov, 07:003,462 MW3,446 MW
9 Nov, 08:003,517 MW3,515 MW
9 Nov, 09:003,560 MW3,523 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,587 MW3,510 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,570 MW3,510 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,528 MW3,460 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,493 MW3,476 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,484 MW3,479 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,517 MW3,494 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,598 MW3,502 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,586 MW3,500 MW
9 Nov, 18:003,561 MW3,491 MW
9 Nov, 19:003,508 MW3,472 MW
9 Nov, 20:003,461 MW3,435 MW
9 Nov, 21:003,446 MW3,401 MW
9 Nov, 22:003,395 MW3,349 MW
9 Nov, 23:003,270 MW3,240 MW
10 Nov, 00:003,171 MW3,122 MW
10 Nov, 01:003,123 MW3,086 MW
10 Nov, 02:003,065 MW3,040 MW
10 Nov, 03:003,041 MW3,034 MW
10 Nov, 04:003,042 MW3,045 MW
10 Nov, 05:003,081 MW3,095 MW
10 Nov, 06:003,229 MW3,244 MW
10 Nov, 07:003,432 MW3,431 MW
10 Nov, 08:003,495 MW3,487 MW
10 Nov, 09:003,490 MW3,507 MW
10 Nov, 10:003,502 MW3,480 MW
10 Nov, 11:003,526 MW3,480 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,510 MW3,473 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,475 MW3,487 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,503 MW3,506 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,539 MW3,531 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,632 MW3,539 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,595 MW3,543 MW
10 Nov, 18:003,562 MW3,531 MW
10 Nov, 19:003,545 MW3,520 MW
10 Nov, 20:003,510 MW3,481 MW
10 Nov, 21:003,473 MW3,438 MW
10 Nov, 22:003,419 MW3,383 MW
10 Nov, 23:003,327 MW3,287 MW
11 Nov, 00:003,216 MW3,210 MW
11 Nov, 01:003,172 MW3,159 MW
11 Nov, 02:003,123 MW3,120 MW
11 Nov, 03:003,104 MW3,094 MW
11 Nov, 04:003,086 MW3,099 MW
11 Nov, 05:003,131 MW3,150 MW
11 Nov, 06:003,265 MW3,291 MW
11 Nov, 07:003,458 MW3,466 MW
11 Nov, 08:003,469 MW3,539 MW
11 Nov, 09:003,375 MW3,556 MW
11 Nov, 10:003,388 MW3,539 MW
11 Nov, 11:003,355 MW3,542 MW
11 Nov, 12:003,335 MW3,545 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,383 MW3,537 MW
11 Nov, 14:003,447 MW3,559 MW
11 Nov, 15:003,492 MW3,573 MW
11 Nov, 16:003,587 MW3,598 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,574 MW3,571 MW
11 Nov, 18:003,561 MW3,572 MW
11 Nov, 19:003,553 MW3,535 MW
11 Nov, 20:003,544 MW3,527 MW
11 Nov, 21:003,521 MW3,483 MW
11 Nov, 22:003,460 MW3,431 MW
11 Nov, 23:003,388 MW3,337 MW
12 Nov, 00:003,360 MW3,262 MW
12 Nov, 01:003,310 MW3,207 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,292 MW3,181 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,286 MW3,150 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,265 MW3,159 MW
12 Nov, 05:003,302 MW3,199 MW
12 Nov, 06:003,482 MW3,358 MW
12 Nov, 07:003,701 MW3,530 MW
12 Nov, 08:003,762 MW3,592 MW
12 Nov, 09:003,728 MW3,633 MW
12 Nov, 10:003,744 MW3,619 MW
12 Nov, 11:003,709 MW3,613 MW
12 Nov, 12:003,689 MW3,614 MW
12 Nov, 13:003,686 MW3,619 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no3_2026,
  title = {{Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/}
}

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