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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PACW was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PACW was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PACW came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 55 MW, against average demand of 2,318 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 59% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.4%
Bias+0.5%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss269 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,079 MW, reported 2,348 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
PACW day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACW over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACW over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:002,353 MW2,417 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,646 MW2,714 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,776 MW2,849 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,696 MW2,805 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,596 MW2,688 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,471 MW2,612 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,398 MW2,520 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,313 MW2,466 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,294 MW2,439 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,277 MW2,437 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,347 MW2,475 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,450 MW2,582 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,601 MW2,732 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,622 MW2,742 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,583 MW2,697 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,521 MW2,594 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,424 MW2,499 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,285 MW2,347 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,172 MW2,251 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,111 MW2,153 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,073 MW2,101 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,064 MW2,084 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,069 MW2,109 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,165 MW2,203 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,346 MW2,402 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,600 MW2,630 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,727 MW2,754 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,702 MW2,730 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,644 MW2,633 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,521 MW2,536 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,419 MW2,456 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,354 MW2,404 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,340 MW2,371 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,317 MW2,362 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,363 MW2,394 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,434 MW2,486 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,524 MW2,558 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,507 MW2,552 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,444 MW2,484 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,364 MW2,410 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,283 MW2,317 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,171 MW2,206 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,080 MW2,102 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,996 MW1,998 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,964 MW1,940 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,954 MW1,908 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,972 MW1,901 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,036 MW1,928 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,152 MW2,010 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,294 MW2,147 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,436 MW2,282 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,441 MW2,351 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,380 MW2,343 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,291 MW2,295 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,242 MW2,245 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,189 MW2,215 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,154 MW2,209 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,152 MW2,229 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,191 MW2,278 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,270 MW2,363 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,391 MW2,419 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,354 MW2,400 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,291 MW2,331 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,225 MW2,264 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,155 MW2,182 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,055 MW2,078 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,964 MW1,970 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,904 MW1,889 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,855 MW1,834 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,797 MW1,805 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,825 MW1,801 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,841 MW1,824 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,911 MW1,902 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,027 MW2,046 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,153 MW2,214 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,254 MW2,328 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,278 MW2,354 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,235 MW2,326 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,213 MW2,291 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,189 MW2,274 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,178 MW2,264 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,176 MW2,274 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,216 MW2,330 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,342 MW2,458 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,473 MW2,569 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,450 MW2,596 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,408 MW2,541 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,332 MW2,465 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,219 MW2,354 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,097 MW2,231 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,975 MW2,107 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,914 MW2,022 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,879 MW1,974 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,872 MW1,971 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,897 MW2,006 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,983 MW2,117 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,204 MW2,344 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,496 MW2,611 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,642 MW2,772 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,603 MW2,779 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,557 MW2,705 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,530 MW2,622 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,528 MW2,552 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,541 MW2,505 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,519 MW2,472 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,477 MW2,449 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,503 MW2,473 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,575 MW2,575 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,676 MW2,676 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,649 MW2,694 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,566 MW2,634 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,467 MW2,547 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,359 MW2,423 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,193 MW2,281 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,085 MW2,157 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,997 MW1,990 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,943 MW1,936 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,922 MW1,907 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,940 MW1,921 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,999 MW2,011 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,189 MW2,214 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,448 MW2,456 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,571 MW2,598 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,558 MW2,605 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,546 MW2,550 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,500 MW2,501 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,459 MW2,467 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,419 MW2,457 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,404 MW2,456 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,384 MW2,460 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,398 MW2,490 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,478 MW2,578 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,589 MW2,655 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,558 MW2,655 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,493 MW2,580 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,417 MW2,483 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,310 MW2,354 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,180 MW2,210 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,081 MW2,077 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,005 MW1,974 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,957 MW1,912 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,944 MW1,889 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,958 MW1,915 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,018 MW2,013 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,172 MW2,195 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,388 MW2,396 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,528 MW2,525 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,552 MW2,558 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,517 MW2,527 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,451 MW2,477 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,390 MW2,428 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,362 MW2,413 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,356 MW2,410 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,356 MW2,414 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,388 MW2,442 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,484 MW2,539 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,591 MW2,653 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,569 MW2,648 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,518 MW2,560 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,437 MW2,465 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,335 MW2,336 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,178 MW2,193 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,069 MW2,075 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,980 MW1,992 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,944 MW1,944 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,940 MW1,920 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,941 MW1,938 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,954 MW2,035 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pacw_2026,
  title = {{PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/}
}

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