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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEC came 16 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 72 MW, against average demand of 2,389 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 41% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

718 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.9%
Bias-0.7%
Hours within 5%84%
Worst miss661 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-24 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 1,938 MW, reported 2,599 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
TEC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:002,332 MW2,371 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,504 MW2,580 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,728 MW2,753 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,973 MW2,899 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,189 MW3,027 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,336 MW3,109 MW
5 Nov, 14:003,438 MW3,199 MW
5 Nov, 15:003,451 MW3,246 MW
5 Nov, 16:003,417 MW3,236 MW
5 Nov, 17:003,333 MW3,183 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,290 MW3,079 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,165 MW2,971 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,022 MW2,816 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,846 MW2,633 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,634 MW2,415 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,422 MW2,137 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,231 MW2,312 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,091 MW2,046 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,020 MW1,956 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,957 MW1,900 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,952 MW1,925 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,029 MW2,036 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,161 MW2,156 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,259 MW2,230 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,428 MW2,383 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,557 MW2,562 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,719 MW2,753 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,957 MW2,939 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,146 MW3,090 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,274 MW3,203 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,371 MW3,284 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,418 MW3,302 MW
6 Nov, 16:003,370 MW3,246 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,224 MW3,142 MW
6 Nov, 18:003,098 MW2,995 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,924 MW2,849 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,754 MW2,699 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,587 MW2,546 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,403 MW2,370 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,227 MW1,933 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,063 MW2,133 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,947 MW1,900 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,858 MW1,819 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,799 MW1,768 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,785 MW1,754 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,801 MW1,781 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,878 MW1,810 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,968 MW1,962 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,147 MW2,167 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,354 MW2,331 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,526 MW2,498 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,673 MW2,650 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,794 MW2,771 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,904 MW2,858 MW
7 Nov, 14:003,001 MW2,900 MW
7 Nov, 15:003,037 MW2,925 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,972 MW2,850 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,832 MW2,757 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,706 MW2,647 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,520 MW2,517 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,376 MW2,385 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,239 MW2,248 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,082 MW2,096 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,939 MW1,857 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,781 MW1,857 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,653 MW1,647 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,575 MW1,569 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,512 MW1,507 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,477 MW1,483 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,493 MW1,498 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,541 MW1,557 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,616 MW1,693 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,786 MW1,876 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,948 MW2,074 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,105 MW2,240 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,272 MW2,371 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,467 MW2,497 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,639 MW2,601 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,775 MW2,693 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,853 MW2,728 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,852 MW2,682 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,773 MW2,626 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,713 MW2,492 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,569 MW2,367 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,412 MW2,250 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,245 MW2,102 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,056 MW1,923 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,886 MW1,890 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,750 MW1,833 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,630 MW1,564 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,600 MW1,508 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,578 MW1,480 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,611 MW1,530 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,712 MW1,710 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,885 MW1,870 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,959 MW1,945 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,039 MW2,019 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,188 MW2,117 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,303 MW2,253 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,391 MW2,413 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,560 MW2,585 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,735 MW2,723 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,884 MW2,841 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,976 MW2,925 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,989 MW2,914 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,941 MW2,900 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,881 MW2,826 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,745 MW2,684 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,581 MW2,507 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,385 MW2,326 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,166 MW2,093 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,962 MW2,046 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,791 MW1,874 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,681 MW1,647 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,617 MW1,599 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,588 MW1,578 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,618 MW1,625 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,724 MW1,770 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,905 MW1,926 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,972 MW1,987 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,077 MW2,082 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,228 MW2,214 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,326 MW2,318 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,488 MW2,460 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,711 MW2,621 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,878 MW2,744 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,940 MW2,849 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,926 MW2,915 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,930 MW2,926 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,982 MW2,948 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,971 MW2,876 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,850 MW2,753 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,700 MW2,603 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,537 MW2,409 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,344 MW2,183 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,154 MW1,930 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,986 MW2,062 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,856 MW1,799 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,774 MW1,741 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,739 MW1,714 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,751 MW1,754 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,825 MW1,909 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,950 MW2,046 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,019 MW2,083 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,178 MW2,258 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,388 MW2,365 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,550 MW2,453 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,681 MW2,604 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,823 MW2,753 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,952 MW2,844 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,982 MW2,870 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,996 MW2,847 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,941 MW2,796 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,891 MW2,860 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,828 MW2,760 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,681 MW2,638 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,560 MW2,483 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,425 MW2,297 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,238 MW2,114 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,053 MW1,976 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,881 MW1,954 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,771 MW1,735 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,700 MW1,675 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,658 MW1,655 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,670 MW1,697 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,781 MW1,788 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,961 MW1,893 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,041 MW1,994 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (718 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tec_2026,
  title = {{TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/}
}

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