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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AECI was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 456 MW (43.7%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AECI was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 456 MW (43.7%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AECI came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 60 MW, against average demand of 1,941 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.1%
Bias-0.4%
Hours within 5%82%
Worst miss456 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 456 MW (43.7%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 1,499 MW, reported 1,043 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
AECI day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AECI over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 07:006 Nov, 07:007 Nov, 07:008 Nov, 07:009 Nov, 07:0010 Nov, 07:0011 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AECI over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 07:002,207 MW2,179 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,086 MW2,176 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,978 MW2,066 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,937 MW1,966 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,906 MW1,922 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,886 MW1,900 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,898 MW1,874 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,881 MW1,885 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,928 MW1,895 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,980 MW1,922 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,120 MW1,994 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,173 MW2,124 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,150 MW2,165 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,110 MW2,132 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,992 MW2,073 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,844 MW1,953 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,707 MW1,803 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,649 MW1,696 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,607 MW1,635 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,622 MW1,617 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,634 MW1,611 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,669 MW1,623 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,831 MW1,704 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,051 MW1,869 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,117 MW2,059 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,131 MW2,109 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,111 MW2,115 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,094 MW2,102 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,065 MW2,081 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,038 MW2,052 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,036 MW2,032 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,005 MW2,016 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,042 MW2,007 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,158 MW2,036 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,309 MW2,163 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,359 MW2,324 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,333 MW2,347 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,302 MW2,313 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,261 MW2,281 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,164 MW2,218 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,050 MW2,127 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,989 MW2,044 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,960 MW1,976 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,963 MW1,952 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,955 MW1,954 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,026 MW1,963 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,116 MW2,029 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,209 MW2,136 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,314 MW2,247 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,379 MW2,338 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,299 MW2,352 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,219 MW2,282 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,105 MW2,184 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,000 MW2,081 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,952 MW1,992 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,875 MW1,932 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,901 MW1,879 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,988 MW1,913 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,186 MW2,015 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,299 MW2,189 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,320 MW2,290 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,326 MW2,306 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,331 MW2,309 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,250 MW2,282 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,187 MW2,217 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,160 MW2,161 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,148 MW2,134 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,166 MW2,141 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,190 MW2,155 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,242 MW2,179 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,313 MW2,238 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,420 MW2,326 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,496 MW2,442 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,423 MW2,490 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,227 MW2,379 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,076 MW2,198 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,954 MW2,043 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,894 MW1,940 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,873 MW1,891 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,860 MW1,863 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,844 MW1,859 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,934 MW1,861 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,068 MW1,950 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,132 MW2,091 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,128 MW2,126 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,097 MW2,109 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,005 MW2,063 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,878 MW1,964 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,817 MW1,857 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,767 MW1,789 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,786 MW1,763 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,821 MW1,779 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,874 MW1,820 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,994 MW1,888 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,195 MW2,015 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,433 MW2,223 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,456 MW2,428 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,293 MW2,405 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,097 MW2,233 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,975 MW2,053 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,920 MW1,938 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,869 MW1,884 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,866 MW1,854 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,902 MW1,850 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,892 MW1,877 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,932 MW1,888 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,085 MW1,941 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,158 MW2,079 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,149 MW2,140 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,090 MW2,112 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,017 MW2,062 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,870 MW1,964 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,770 MW1,836 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,717 MW1,744 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,708 MW1,708 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,724 MW1,687 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,758 MW1,713 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,835 MW1,755 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,016 MW1,845 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,247 MW2,033 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,284 MW2,237 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,135 MW2,232 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,003 MW2,090 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,898 MW1,959 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,856 MW1,878 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,840 MW1,819 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,846 MW1,805 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,854 MW1,821 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,890 MW1,834 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,912 MW1,870 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,052 MW1,934 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,106 MW2,054 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,077 MW2,083 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,045 MW2,044 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,953 MW1,996 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,873 MW1,912 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,756 MW1,819 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,703 MW1,735 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,648 MW1,678 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,678 MW1,630 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,709 MW1,632 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,783 MW1,706 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,956 MW1,802 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,157 MW1,967 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,161 MW2,155 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,085 MW2,175 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,970 MW2,060 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,935 MW1,951 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,930 MW1,917 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,934 MW1,912 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,969 MW1,925 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,963 MW1,946 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,996 MW1,970 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,055 MW1,990 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,159 MW2,043 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,221 MW2,151 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,152 MW2,202 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,096 MW2,124 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,991 MW2,052 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,852 MW1,940 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,737 MW1,810 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,664 MW1,700 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,676 MW1,669 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,671 MW1,653 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,743 MW1,665 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,798 MW1,732 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,998 MW1,832 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,262 MW2,127 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_aeci_2026,
  title = {{AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/}
}

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