Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-12
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for IPCO was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 73% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 330 MW (17.9%) too high at 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for IPCO was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 73% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 330 MW (17.9%) too high at 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, IPCO came 26 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 68 MW, against average demand of 1,806 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 72% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.8%
Bias+1.9%
Hours within 5%73%
Worst miss330 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+32 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 330 MW (17.9%) too high at 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 2,177 MW, reported 1,847 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
IPCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for IPCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for IPCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:002,005 MW2,036 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,115 MW2,137 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,138 MW2,172 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,090 MW2,118 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,999 MW2,016 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,911 MW1,916 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,862 MW1,850 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,836 MW1,806 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,827 MW1,785 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,830 MW1,789 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,860 MW1,864 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,980 MW1,956 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,044 MW1,996 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,035 MW1,954 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,998 MW1,896 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,934 MW1,814 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,845 MW1,727 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,770 MW1,657 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,713 MW1,639 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,697 MW1,710 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,703 MW1,782 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,719 MW1,727 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,781 MW1,793 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,892 MW1,921 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,051 MW2,055 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,091 MW2,145 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,073 MW2,168 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,102 MW2,129 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,121 MW2,035 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,042 MW1,939 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,876 MW1,875 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,822 MW1,840 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,825 MW1,829 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,844 MW1,835 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,868 MW1,908 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,933 MW1,996 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,968 MW2,030 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,941 MW1,980 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,902 MW1,912 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,847 MW1,824 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,774 MW1,733 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,716 MW1,666 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,670 MW1,641 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,649 MW1,670 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,635 MW1,711 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,655 MW1,687 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,688 MW1,728 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,753 MW1,800 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,852 MW1,893 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,942 MW1,966 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,984 MW2,017 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,930 MW1,960 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,865 MW1,876 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,831 MW1,828 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,730 MW1,816 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,724 MW1,811 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,717 MW1,845 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,723 MW1,926 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,741 MW2,069 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,847 MW2,177 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,881 MW2,185 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,874 MW2,120 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,836 MW2,037 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,789 MW1,922 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,726 MW1,766 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,655 MW1,657 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,596 MW1,606 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,573 MW1,632 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,578 MW1,618 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,557 MW1,623 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,587 MW1,656 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,633 MW1,714 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,718 MW1,792 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,813 MW1,869 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,861 MW1,946 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,865 MW1,929 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,797 MW1,871 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,773 MW1,836 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,763 MW1,825 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,733 MW1,823 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,743 MW1,862 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,771 MW1,942 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,816 MW2,089 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,931 MW2,200 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,963 MW2,207 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,848 MW2,136 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,854 MW2,058 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,741 MW1,953 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,747 MW1,800 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,654 MW1,688 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,620 MW1,638 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,656 MW1,654 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,700 MW1,630 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,719 MW1,650 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,722 MW1,713 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,794 MW1,840 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,985 MW2,003 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,116 MW2,105 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,123 MW2,118 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,060 MW2,050 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,009 MW1,967 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,949 MW1,892 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,914 MW1,837 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,892 MW1,813 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,868 MW1,818 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,880 MW1,842 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,905 MW1,919 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,001 MW2,000 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,054 MW2,020 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,016 MW1,955 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,988 MW1,871 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,894 MW1,776 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,769 MW1,682 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,699 MW1,615 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,647 MW1,596 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,620 MW1,655 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,621 MW1,693 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,668 MW1,662 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,701 MW1,720 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,819 MW1,842 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,990 MW2,001 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,125 MW2,099 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,083 MW2,114 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,007 MW2,054 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,927 MW1,986 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,892 MW1,921 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,858 MW1,868 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,846 MW1,837 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,832 MW1,836 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,826 MW1,864 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,868 MW1,953 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,958 MW2,036 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,018 MW2,050 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,992 MW1,984 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,951 MW1,905 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,785 MW1,806 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,678 MW1,699 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,591 MW1,620 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,524 MW1,595 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,594 MW1,639 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,606 MW1,648 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,622 MW1,633 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,683 MW1,695 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,804 MW1,823 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,968 MW1,986 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,088 MW2,084 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,062 MW2,083 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,950 MW2,019 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,884 MW1,955 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,809 MW1,898 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,779 MW1,849 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,802 MW1,828 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,845 MW1,837 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,857 MW1,868 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,826 MW1,952 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,917 MW2,028 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,972 MW2,036 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,949 MW1,963 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,922 MW1,875 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,850 MW1,775 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,755 MW1,674 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,682 MW1,601 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,630 MW1,580 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,609 MW1,641 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,617 MW1,670 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,623 MW1,648 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,690 MW1,711 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,799 MW1,834 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ipco_2026,
  title = {{IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.