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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FMPP was off by 6.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 717 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 57% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 552 MW (25.9%) too high at 10 Nov 2026, 17:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FMPP was off by 6.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 717 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 57% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 552 MW (25.9%) too high at 10 Nov 2026, 17:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FMPP came 36 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 122 MW, against average demand of 2,027 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 62% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

717 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error6.3%
Bias+3.4%
Hours within 5%57%
Worst miss552 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+63 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 552 MW (25.9%) too high at 10 Nov 2026, 17:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 2,683 MW, reported 2,131 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
FMPP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FMPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FMPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:002,083 MW2,082 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,246 MW2,245 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,427 MW2,407 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,539 MW2,578 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,665 MW2,773 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,714 MW2,860 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,778 MW2,913 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,787 MW2,913 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,682 MW2,873 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,579 MW2,774 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,584 MW2,660 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,490 MW2,554 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,410 MW2,409 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,315 MW2,228 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,189 MW2,039 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,988 MW1,861 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,818 MW1,824 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,695 MW1,719 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,614 MW1,641 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,567 MW1,619 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,584 MW1,647 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,657 MW1,770 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,793 MW1,920 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,900 MW2,015 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,079 MW2,148 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,262 MW2,330 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,433 MW2,500 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,596 MW2,665 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,753 MW2,800 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,835 MW2,920 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,812 MW3,025 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,801 MW3,010 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,619 MW2,930 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,484 MW2,803 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,443 MW2,682 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,294 MW2,562 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,181 MW2,420 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,155 MW2,252 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,078 MW2,066 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,891 MW1,901 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,740 MW1,785 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,628 MW1,672 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,637 MW1,591 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,588 MW1,546 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,563 MW1,558 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,574 MW1,637 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,611 MW1,709 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,715 MW1,806 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,876 MW1,961 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,029 MW2,102 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,169 MW2,238 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,170 MW2,376 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,224 MW2,495 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,326 MW2,605 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,387 MW2,654 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,408 MW2,657 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,267 MW2,609 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,123 MW2,573 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,049 MW2,453 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,986 MW2,354 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,885 MW2,211 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,783 MW2,077 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,644 MW1,922 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,513 MW1,765 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,388 MW1,581 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,290 MW1,484 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,218 MW1,417 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,164 MW1,386 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,149 MW1,386 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,156 MW1,432 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,195 MW1,497 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,282 MW1,614 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,450 MW1,776 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,606 MW1,906 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,743 MW2,033 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,828 MW2,182 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,940 MW2,308 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,029 MW2,398 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,132 MW2,457 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,444 MW2,504 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,056 MW2,489 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,960 MW2,468 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,963 MW2,389 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,933 MW2,305 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,818 MW2,186 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,692 MW2,037 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,536 MW1,862 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,420 MW1,679 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,344 MW1,554 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,242 MW1,469 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,186 MW1,426 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,155 MW1,411 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,182 MW1,458 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,278 MW1,593 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,384 MW1,724 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,524 MW1,794 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,635 MW1,888 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,748 MW1,995 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,859 MW2,093 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,989 MW2,177 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,097 MW2,267 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,126 MW2,329 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,202 MW2,373 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,281 MW2,403 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,171 MW2,392 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,080 MW2,429 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,073 MW2,394 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,046 MW2,318 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,911 MW2,202 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,777 MW2,032 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,583 MW1,848 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,430 MW1,669 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,362 MW1,577 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,264 MW1,506 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,198 MW1,468 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,163 MW1,448 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,189 MW1,480 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,279 MW1,660 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,400 MW1,801 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,535 MW1,877 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,618 MW1,986 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,734 MW2,124 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,853 MW2,265 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,325 MW2,408 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,157 MW2,533 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,264 MW2,637 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,253 MW2,710 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,231 MW2,733 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,165 MW2,706 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,131 MW2,683 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,125 MW2,613 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,108 MW2,514 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,985 MW2,391 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,883 MW2,213 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,713 MW2,018 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,539 MW1,842 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,530 MW1,661 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,521 MW1,577 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,441 MW1,526 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,408 MW1,505 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,412 MW1,521 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,504 MW1,611 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,609 MW1,711 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,730 MW1,827 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,879 MW1,958 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,992 MW2,090 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,087 MW2,227 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,123 MW2,366 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,309 MW2,492 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,367 MW2,583 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,378 MW2,649 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,335 MW2,666 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,197 MW2,658 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,097 MW2,639 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,047 MW2,572 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,127 MW2,474 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,936 MW2,350 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,861 MW2,175 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,725 MW1,981 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,564 MW1,810 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,543 MW1,560 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,507 MW1,472 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,431 MW1,416 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,397 MW1,400 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,416 MW1,432 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,517 MW1,558 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,663 MW1,686 MW
12 Nov, 07:001,678 MW1,760 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (717 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fmpp_2026,
  title = {{FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/}
}

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