Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 14 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 662 hours from 14 October to 12 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tirane).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 662 hours from 14 October to 12 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Albania came 25 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 31 MW, against average demand of 911 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 39% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

662 hours from 14 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.3%

Bias-0.5%

Hours within 5%78%

Worst miss167 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,049 MW, reported 882 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Albania over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 15:00	1,054 MW	1,069 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	1,151 MW	1,180 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	1,308 MW	1,300 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,341 MW	1,318 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,326 MW	1,296 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	1,280 MW	1,240 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	1,155 MW	1,125 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	991 MW	953 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	810 MW	786 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	684 MW	692 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	617 MW	618 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	586 MW	601 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	575 MW	601 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	590 MW	601 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	675 MW	677 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	868 MW	873 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	1,052 MW	1,057 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	1,052 MW	1,043 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	980 MW	973 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	917 MW	911 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	881 MW	897 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	869 MW	890 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	919 MW	940 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	977 MW	1,004 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	1,052 MW	1,065 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	1,158 MW	1,158 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	1,321 MW	1,331 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	1,345 MW	1,349 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	1,325 MW	1,336 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	1,274 MW	1,288 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	1,164 MW	1,166 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	998 MW	992 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	828 MW	811 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	713 MW	699 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	651 MW	627 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	615 MW	609 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	601 MW	608 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	614 MW	608 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	687 MW	663 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	811 MW	827 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	995 MW	976 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	1,095 MW	1,041 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	1,056 MW	998 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	988 MW	947 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	945 MW	931 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	946 MW	938 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	976 MW	989 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	1,014 MW	1,033 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	1,078 MW	1,053 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	1,198 MW	1,158 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	1,350 MW	1,309 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	1,363 MW	1,312 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	1,323 MW	1,310 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	1,262 MW	1,253 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	1,142 MW	1,132 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	994 MW	977 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	839 MW	817 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	722 MW	703 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	649 MW	634 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	610 MW	593 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	599 MW	589 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	611 MW	605 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	659 MW	670 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	755 MW	759 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	905 MW	878 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	1,031 MW	970 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	1,064 MW	987 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	1,040 MW	946 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	1,063 MW	927 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	1,110 MW	971 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	1,139 MW	1,004 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	1,174 MW	1,008 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	1,184 MW	1,072 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	1,272 MW	1,169 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	1,379 MW	1,316 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	1,387 MW	1,347 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	1,361 MW	1,344 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	1,305 MW	1,286 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	1,175 MW	1,159 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	1,009 MW	985 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	820 MW	796 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	692 MW	699 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	625 MW	650 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	628 MW	639 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	617 MW	629 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	584 MW	627 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	653 MW	687 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	838 MW	871 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	1,068 MW	1,067 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	1,163 MW	1,182 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	1,170 MW	1,196 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	1,152 MW	1,158 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	1,151 MW	1,131 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	1,152 MW	1,156 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	1,184 MW	1,210 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	1,212 MW	1,216 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,218 MW	1,228 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	1,273 MW	1,281 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	1,386 MW	1,423 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	1,391 MW	1,415 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	1,367 MW	1,379 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	1,322 MW	1,322 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	1,207 MW	1,158 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	1,033 MW	993 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	852 MW	823 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	713 MW	694 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	652 MW	632 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	655 MW	639 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	630 MW	608 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	606 MW	575 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	685 MW	648 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	892 MW	862 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	1,102 MW	1,073 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	1,126 MW	1,139 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	1,078 MW	1,137 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	1,043 MW	1,108 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	1,045 MW	1,110 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	1,072 MW	1,108 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	1,127 MW	1,137 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	1,183 MW	1,155 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	1,239 MW	1,180 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	1,324 MW	1,236 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	1,420 MW	1,364 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	1,430 MW	1,374 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	1,390 MW	1,350 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	1,322 MW	1,294 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	1,195 MW	1,173 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	1,020 MW	1,005 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	832 MW	828 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	687 MW	676 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	636 MW	629 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	615 MW	612 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	604 MW	600 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	581 MW	575 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	648 MW	643 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	832 MW	845 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	1,037 MW	1,052 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	1,085 MW	1,151 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	1,078 MW	1,144 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	1,065 MW	1,112 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	1,064 MW	1,115 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	1,042 MW	1,117 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	1,073 MW	1,137 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	1,079 MW	1,145 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	1,113 MW	1,162 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	1,191 MW	1,219 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	1,299 MW	1,351 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	1,293 MW	1,364 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	1,259 MW	1,348 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	1,195 MW	1,301 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	1,087 MW	1,180 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	940 MW	1,005 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	775 MW	827 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	651 MW	726 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	595 MW	653 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	586 MW	632 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	576 MW	620 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	561 MW	603 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	620 MW	670 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	804 MW	847 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	999 MW	1,067 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	1,034 MW	1,113 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	990 MW	1,060 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	962 MW	1,033 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	989 MW	1,024 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	989 MW	1,022 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	1,009 MW	1,060 MW
12 Nov, 14:00	1,041 MW	1,103 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (662 of 711 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_al_2026,
  title = {{Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

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Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 14 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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