Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Estonia was off by 11.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 35% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tallinn).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Estonia was off by 11.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 35% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Estonia came 45 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 94 MW, against average demand of 925 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 55% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
688 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026Average error11.2%
Bias+4.3%
Hours within 5%35%
Worst miss576 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+26 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,157 MW, reported 581 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 16:00 | 922 MW | 1,098 MW |
| 5 Nov, 17:00 | 953 MW | 1,142 MW |
| 5 Nov, 18:00 | 992 MW | 1,118 MW |
| 5 Nov, 19:00 | 1,124 MW | 1,095 MW |
| 5 Nov, 20:00 | 1,056 MW | 1,057 MW |
| 5 Nov, 21:00 | 1,014 MW | 1,029 MW |
| 5 Nov, 22:00 | 990 MW | 1,062 MW |
| 5 Nov, 23:00 | 973 MW | 993 MW |
| 6 Nov, 00:00 | 935 MW | 910 MW |
| 6 Nov, 01:00 | 944 MW | 717 MW |
| 6 Nov, 02:00 | 872 MW | 706 MW |
| 6 Nov, 03:00 | 878 MW | 703 MW |
| 6 Nov, 04:00 | 959 MW | 700 MW |
| 6 Nov, 05:00 | 970 MW | 718 MW |
| 6 Nov, 06:00 | 1,016 MW | 802 MW |
| 6 Nov, 07:00 | 1,014 MW | 897 MW |
| 6 Nov, 08:00 | 986 MW | 955 MW |
| 6 Nov, 09:00 | 899 MW | 996 MW |
| 6 Nov, 10:00 | 906 MW | 999 MW |
| 6 Nov, 11:00 | 842 MW | 990 MW |
| 6 Nov, 12:00 | 720 MW | 982 MW |
| 6 Nov, 13:00 | 757 MW | 991 MW |
| 6 Nov, 14:00 | 924 MW | 982 MW |
| 6 Nov, 15:00 | 926 MW | 980 MW |
| 6 Nov, 16:00 | 1,063 MW | 981 MW |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 | 1,145 MW | 993 MW |
| 6 Nov, 18:00 | 975 MW | 962 MW |
| 6 Nov, 19:00 | 1,052 MW | 920 MW |
| 6 Nov, 20:00 | 972 MW | 898 MW |
| 6 Nov, 21:00 | 942 MW | 850 MW |
| 6 Nov, 22:00 | 933 MW | 791 MW |
| 6 Nov, 23:00 | 884 MW | 724 MW |
| 7 Nov, 00:00 | 880 MW | 688 MW |
| 7 Nov, 01:00 | 855 MW | 830 MW |
| 7 Nov, 02:00 | 919 MW | 753 MW |
| 7 Nov, 03:00 | 943 MW | 782 MW |
| 7 Nov, 04:00 | 894 MW | 772 MW |
| 7 Nov, 05:00 | 855 MW | 788 MW |
| 7 Nov, 06:00 | 866 MW | 803 MW |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 | 858 MW | 790 MW |
| 7 Nov, 08:00 | 878 MW | 834 MW |
| 7 Nov, 09:00 | 866 MW | 903 MW |
| 7 Nov, 10:00 | 936 MW | 930 MW |
| 7 Nov, 11:00 | 1,090 MW | 953 MW |
| 7 Nov, 12:00 | 1,126 MW | 1,024 MW |
| 7 Nov, 13:00 | 1,080 MW | 1,004 MW |
| 7 Nov, 14:00 | 951 MW | 957 MW |
| 7 Nov, 15:00 | 898 MW | 951 MW |
| 7 Nov, 16:00 | 882 MW | 938 MW |
| 7 Nov, 17:00 | 1,071 MW | 962 MW |
| 7 Nov, 18:00 | 1,011 MW | 965 MW |
| 7 Nov, 19:00 | 949 MW | 964 MW |
| 7 Nov, 20:00 | 920 MW | 927 MW |
| 7 Nov, 21:00 | 919 MW | 904 MW |
| 7 Nov, 22:00 | 906 MW | 858 MW |
| 7 Nov, 23:00 | 883 MW | 812 MW |
| 8 Nov, 00:00 | 819 MW | 786 MW |
| 8 Nov, 01:00 | 871 MW | 791 MW |
| 8 Nov, 02:00 | 924 MW | 771 MW |
| 8 Nov, 03:00 | 839 MW | 770 MW |
| 8 Nov, 04:00 | 861 MW | 787 MW |
| 8 Nov, 05:00 | 804 MW | 809 MW |
| 8 Nov, 06:00 | 837 MW | 798 MW |
| 8 Nov, 07:00 | 859 MW | 806 MW |
| 8 Nov, 08:00 | 879 MW | 843 MW |
| 8 Nov, 09:00 | 826 MW | 879 MW |
| 8 Nov, 10:00 | 852 MW | 909 MW |
| 8 Nov, 11:00 | 814 MW | 926 MW |
| 8 Nov, 12:00 | 835 MW | 937 MW |
| 8 Nov, 13:00 | 815 MW | 1,006 MW |
| 8 Nov, 14:00 | 808 MW | 939 MW |
| 8 Nov, 15:00 | 857 MW | 692 MW |
| 8 Nov, 16:00 | 907 MW | 1,010 MW |
| 8 Nov, 17:00 | 962 MW | 1,015 MW |
| 8 Nov, 18:00 | 984 MW | 1,019 MW |
| 8 Nov, 19:00 | 964 MW | 1,022 MW |
| 8 Nov, 20:00 | 934 MW | 987 MW |
| 8 Nov, 21:00 | 983 MW | 946 MW |
| 8 Nov, 22:00 | 916 MW | 814 MW |
| 8 Nov, 23:00 | 853 MW | 797 MW |
| 9 Nov, 00:00 | 807 MW | 803 MW |
| 9 Nov, 01:00 | 796 MW | 970 MW |
| 9 Nov, 02:00 | 806 MW | 890 MW |
| 9 Nov, 03:00 | 840 MW | 877 MW |
| 9 Nov, 04:00 | 818 MW | 908 MW |
| 9 Nov, 05:00 | 825 MW | 919 MW |
| 9 Nov, 06:00 | 904 MW | 996 MW |
| 9 Nov, 07:00 | 994 MW | 1,054 MW |
| 9 Nov, 08:00 | 968 MW | 1,096 MW |
| 9 Nov, 09:00 | 1,024 MW | 1,071 MW |
| 9 Nov, 10:00 | 1,045 MW | 1,073 MW |
| 9 Nov, 11:00 | 1,167 MW | 1,107 MW |
| 9 Nov, 12:00 | 1,211 MW | 1,109 MW |
| 9 Nov, 13:00 | 1,168 MW | 1,119 MW |
| 9 Nov, 14:00 | 1,136 MW | 1,066 MW |
| 9 Nov, 15:00 | 1,125 MW | 1,135 MW |
| 9 Nov, 16:00 | 1,104 MW | 1,128 MW |
| 9 Nov, 17:00 | 1,103 MW | 1,119 MW |
| 9 Nov, 18:00 | 1,079 MW | 1,108 MW |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 | 1,050 MW | 1,078 MW |
| 9 Nov, 20:00 | 1,044 MW | 1,047 MW |
| 9 Nov, 21:00 | 1,111 MW | 979 MW |
| 9 Nov, 22:00 | 1,043 MW | 925 MW |
| 9 Nov, 23:00 | 993 MW | 878 MW |
| 10 Nov, 00:00 | 945 MW | 847 MW |
| 10 Nov, 01:00 | 976 MW | 807 MW |
| 10 Nov, 02:00 | 922 MW | 823 MW |
| 10 Nov, 03:00 | 931 MW | 857 MW |
| 10 Nov, 04:00 | 880 MW | 877 MW |
| 10 Nov, 05:00 | 920 MW | 856 MW |
| 10 Nov, 06:00 | 956 MW | 948 MW |
| 10 Nov, 07:00 | 977 MW | 1,018 MW |
| 10 Nov, 08:00 | 1,043 MW | 1,072 MW |
| 10 Nov, 09:00 | 1,124 MW | 1,134 MW |
| 10 Nov, 10:00 | 1,115 MW | 1,145 MW |
| 10 Nov, 11:00 | 1,104 MW | 1,243 MW |
| 10 Nov, 12:00 | 1,146 MW | 1,225 MW |
| 10 Nov, 13:00 | 1,175 MW | 1,186 MW |
| 10 Nov, 14:00 | 1,125 MW | 1,141 MW |
| 10 Nov, 15:00 | 1,123 MW | 1,147 MW |
| 10 Nov, 16:00 | 1,131 MW | 1,119 MW |
| 10 Nov, 17:00 | 1,130 MW | 1,102 MW |
| 10 Nov, 18:00 | 1,117 MW | 1,120 MW |
| 10 Nov, 19:00 | 1,093 MW | 1,104 MW |
| 10 Nov, 20:00 | 1,058 MW | 1,075 MW |
| 10 Nov, 21:00 | 1,098 MW | 1,055 MW |
| 10 Nov, 22:00 | 1,059 MW | 1,000 MW |
| 10 Nov, 23:00 | 960 MW | 914 MW |
| 11 Nov, 00:00 | 907 MW | 883 MW |
| 11 Nov, 01:00 | 906 MW | 887 MW |
| 11 Nov, 02:00 | 880 MW | 881 MW |
| 11 Nov, 03:00 | 860 MW | 883 MW |
| 11 Nov, 04:00 | 872 MW | 878 MW |
| 11 Nov, 05:00 | 983 MW | 915 MW |
| 11 Nov, 06:00 | 1,118 MW | 982 MW |
| 11 Nov, 07:00 | 1,150 MW | 1,082 MW |
| 11 Nov, 08:00 | 1,181 MW | 1,126 MW |
| 11 Nov, 09:00 | 1,126 MW | 1,119 MW |
| 11 Nov, 10:00 | 1,116 MW | 1,111 MW |
| 11 Nov, 11:00 | 1,147 MW | 1,115 MW |
| 11 Nov, 12:00 | 1,084 MW | 1,122 MW |
| 11 Nov, 13:00 | 1,093 MW | 1,132 MW |
| 11 Nov, 14:00 | 982 MW | 1,107 MW |
| 11 Nov, 15:00 | 1,104 MW | 1,102 MW |
| 11 Nov, 16:00 | 1,152 MW | 1,115 MW |
| 11 Nov, 17:00 | 1,162 MW | 1,133 MW |
| 11 Nov, 18:00 | 1,160 MW | 1,137 MW |
| 11 Nov, 19:00 | 1,189 MW | 1,126 MW |
| 11 Nov, 20:00 | 1,199 MW | 1,104 MW |
| 11 Nov, 21:00 | 1,073 MW | 1,068 MW |
| 11 Nov, 22:00 | 1,093 MW | 1,020 MW |
| 11 Nov, 23:00 | 953 MW | 950 MW |
| 12 Nov, 00:00 | 940 MW | 910 MW |
| 12 Nov, 01:00 | 913 MW | 891 MW |
| 12 Nov, 02:00 | 915 MW | 908 MW |
| 12 Nov, 03:00 | 882 MW | 915 MW |
| 12 Nov, 04:00 | 902 MW | 914 MW |
| 12 Nov, 05:00 | 922 MW | 989 MW |
| 12 Nov, 06:00 | 1,081 MW | 1,044 MW |
| 12 Nov, 07:00 | 1,087 MW | 1,115 MW |
| 12 Nov, 08:00 | 1,115 MW | 1,169 MW |
| 12 Nov, 09:00 | 1,017 MW | 1,181 MW |
| 12 Nov, 10:00 | 1,121 MW | 1,170 MW |
| 12 Nov, 11:00 | 1,135 MW | 1,171 MW |
| 12 Nov, 12:00 | 1,175 MW | 1,174 MW |
| 12 Nov, 13:00 | 1,180 MW | 1,176 MW |
| 12 Nov, 14:00 | 1,106 MW | 1,168 MW |
| 12 Nov, 15:00 | 1,156 MW | 1,174 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
APA 7
World Power Monitor. (2026). Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/
Plain text
World Power Monitor. Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/
BibTeX
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ee_2026,
title = {{Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/
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