Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 5.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 56% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Riga).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 5.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 56% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Latvia came 35 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 48 MW, against average demand of 894 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 68% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error5.4%

Bias+2.9%

Hours within 5%56%

Worst miss1,049 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+23 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,055 MW, reported 2,104 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Latvia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 16:00	861 MW	1,061 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	910 MW	1,066 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	956 MW	1,047 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	969 MW	1,050 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	968 MW	1,005 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	969 MW	1,002 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	883 MW	938 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	832 MW	887 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	760 MW	812 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	746 MW	816 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	700 MW	757 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	708 MW	735 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	758 MW	733 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	827 MW	841 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	893 MW	944 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	905 MW	957 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	960 MW	1,041 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	1,045 MW	1,060 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	1,034 MW	1,019 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	1,013 MW	1,020 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	951 MW	1,033 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	1,017 MW	1,061 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	1,015 MW	1,064 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	1,035 MW	1,060 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	1,016 MW	1,058 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	1,053 MW	1,065 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	967 MW	1,045 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	932 MW	1,009 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	937 MW	970 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	877 MW	918 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	842 MW	865 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	781 MW	815 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	729 MW	754 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	682 MW	697 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	689 MW	669 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	695 MW	658 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	700 MW	657 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	712 MW	674 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	751 MW	715 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	785 MW	760 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	835 MW	813 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	868 MW	853 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	891 MW	886 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	910 MW	908 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	922 MW	927 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	980 MW	1,072 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	1,026 MW	1,077 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	933 MW	923 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	923 MW	927 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	845 MW	936 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	850 MW	925 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	908 MW	915 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	872 MW	884 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	832 MW	846 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	778 MW	795 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	742 MW	743 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	698 MW	705 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	676 MW	692 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	664 MW	657 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	688 MW	657 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	675 MW	666 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	751 MW	773 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	787 MW	799 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	689 MW	742 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	751 MW	791 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	786 MW	837 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	801 MW	876 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	860 MW	890 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	925 MW	922 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	968 MW	951 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	896 MW	923 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	896 MW	912 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	916 MW	935 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	851 MW	946 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	888 MW	956 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	912 MW	949 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	883 MW	917 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	927 MW	877 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	859 MW	836 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	736 MW	760 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	763 MW	719 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	689 MW	735 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	723 MW	710 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	746 MW	745 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	857 MW	831 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	888 MW	870 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	844 MW	828 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	908 MW	939 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	908 MW	1,033 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	1,047 MW	1,064 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	1,096 MW	1,070 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	1,135 MW	1,065 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	1,095 MW	1,104 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	1,223 MW	1,240 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	1,226 MW	1,222 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,129 MW	1,061 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	1,086 MW	1,062 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	1,065 MW	1,062 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	1,009 MW	1,045 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	1,004 MW	1,025 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	1,008 MW	991 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	910 MW	947 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	860 MW	883 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	794 MW	808 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	838 MW	774 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	815 MW	821 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	743 MW	775 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	738 MW	819 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	754 MW	856 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	737 MW	789 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	850 MW	858 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	922 MW	961 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	966 MW	1,044 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	1,047 MW	1,062 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	1,086 MW	1,153 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	1,122 MW	1,170 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	1,036 MW	1,065 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	1,061 MW	1,090 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	1,037 MW	1,088 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	1,015 MW	1,056 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	1,071 MW	1,052 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	1,077 MW	1,059 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	1,098 MW	1,047 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	1,047 MW	1,026 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	1,024 MW	1,003 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	970 MW	951 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	939 MW	891 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	869 MW	817 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	899 MW	790 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	762 MW	762 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	764 MW	777 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	767 MW	776 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	798 MW	796 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	844 MW	860 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	919 MW	947 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	1,007 MW	999 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	1,199 MW	1,079 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	1,110 MW	1,085 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	1,108 MW	1,128 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	1,146 MW	1,105 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	1,155 MW	1,063 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	1,220 MW	1,115 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	1,113 MW	1,088 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	1,044 MW	1,074 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	1,021 MW	1,091 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	1,066 MW	1,106 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	1,026 MW	1,081 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	1,027 MW	1,027 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	927 MW	1,013 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	900 MW	957 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	856 MW	889 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	800 MW	833 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	748 MW	763 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	796 MW	798 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	738 MW	777 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	669 MW	687 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	706 MW	747 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	773 MW	795 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	963 MW	934 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	999 MW	995 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	1,061 MW	1,082 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	1,024 MW	1,111 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	1,067 MW	1,102 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	1,086 MW	1,080 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	1,111 MW	1,107 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	1,202 MW	1,215 MW
12 Nov, 14:00	1,105 MW	1,181 MW
12 Nov, 15:00	1,085 MW	1,107 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lv_2026,
  title = {{Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

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Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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