Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-11
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 11 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 715 hours from 13 October to 11 November 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 296 MW (28.7%) too high at 11 Nov 2026, 07:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 715 hours from 13 October to 11 November 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 296 MW (28.7%) too high at 11 Nov 2026, 07:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AVA came 7 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 28 MW, against average demand of 1,349 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

715 hours from 13 October to 11 November 2026
Average error2.1%
Bias+0.1%
Hours within 5%93%
Worst miss296 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 296 MW (28.7%) too high at 11 Nov 2026, 07:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 1,327 MW, reported 1,031 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-11. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 11 Nov 2026, 23:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
AVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 11 Nov 2026, 23:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 5 Nov, 00:006 Nov, 00:007 Nov, 00:008 Nov, 00:009 Nov, 00:0010 Nov, 00:0011 Nov, 00:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 11 Nov 2026, 23:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-11
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 00:001,245 MW1,209 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,212 MW1,193 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,204 MW1,193 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,214 MW1,199 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,258 MW1,260 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,378 MW1,381 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,519 MW1,528 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,618 MW1,580 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,630 MW1,594 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,638 MW1,576 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,620 MW1,574 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,622 MW1,562 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,601 MW1,534 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,577 MW1,500 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,562 MW1,467 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,547 MW1,467 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,612 MW1,534 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,656 MW1,579 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,636 MW1,564 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,609 MW1,550 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,554 MW1,513 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,481 MW1,435 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,398 MW1,358 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,327 MW1,294 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,275 MW1,229 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,256 MW1,223 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,242 MW1,245 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,252 MW1,258 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,297 MW1,306 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,411 MW1,415 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,541 MW1,556 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,582 MW1,632 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,565 MW1,636 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,535 MW1,624 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,535 MW1,595 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,516 MW1,573 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,497 MW1,542 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,473 MW1,516 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,465 MW1,497 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,458 MW1,495 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,509 MW1,535 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,528 MW1,563 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,484 MW1,544 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,452 MW1,502 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,412 MW1,450 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,350 MW1,386 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,270 MW1,317 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,231 MW1,257 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,180 MW1,172 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,146 MW1,152 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,140 MW1,141 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,134 MW1,148 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,164 MW1,169 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,206 MW1,222 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,283 MW1,288 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,331 MW1,351 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,360 MW1,400 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,344 MW1,411 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,336 MW1,408 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,325 MW1,390 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,290 MW1,367 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,283 MW1,344 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,272 MW1,335 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,297 MW1,345 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,361 MW1,383 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,405 MW1,422 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,383 MW1,407 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,317 MW1,376 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,298 MW1,336 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,248 MW1,283 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,177 MW1,219 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,133 MW1,167 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,101 MW1,079 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,092 MW1,052 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,071 MW1,062 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,079 MW1,050 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,077 MW1,070 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,117 MW1,108 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,188 MW1,182 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,252 MW1,250 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,305 MW1,305 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,349 MW1,322 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,358 MW1,342 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,353 MW1,363 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,358 MW1,350 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,356 MW1,343 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,354 MW1,332 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,378 MW1,347 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,453 MW1,413 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,496 MW1,472 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,477 MW1,462 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,456 MW1,433 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,418 MW1,406 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,354 MW1,335 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,270 MW1,236 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,214 MW1,176 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,172 MW1,096 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,166 MW1,127 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,160 MW1,142 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,187 MW1,161 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,243 MW1,214 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,361 MW1,331 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,492 MW1,477 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,561 MW1,548 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,574 MW1,553 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,567 MW1,543 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,541 MW1,534 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,513 MW1,517 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,487 MW1,511 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,450 MW1,491 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,433 MW1,478 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,446 MW1,481 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,521 MW1,528 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,542 MW1,569 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,516 MW1,552 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,478 MW1,512 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,403 MW1,456 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,351 MW1,379 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,272 MW1,285 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,213 MW1,219 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,156 MW1,162 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,123 MW1,127 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,108 MW1,119 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,122 MW1,135 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,163 MW1,185 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,282 MW1,297 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,411 MW1,432 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,479 MW1,504 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,491 MW1,515 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,495 MW1,510 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,494 MW1,506 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,501 MW1,500 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,486 MW1,491 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,485 MW1,475 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,470 MW1,472 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,484 MW1,480 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,526 MW1,532 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,336 MW1,565 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,303 MW1,537 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,289 MW1,496 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,226 MW1,437 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,157 MW1,357 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,075 MW1,281 MW
10 Nov, 23:00995 MW1,217 MW
11 Nov, 00:00946 MW1,015 MW
11 Nov, 01:00912 MW1,003 MW
11 Nov, 02:00867 MW949 MW
11 Nov, 03:00862 MW987 MW
11 Nov, 04:00896 MW1,035 MW
11 Nov, 05:00982 MW1,152 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,103 MW1,275 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,031 MW1,327 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,384 MW1,298 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,381 MW1,266 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,372 MW1,247 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,355 MW1,254 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,374 MW1,275 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,355 MW1,277 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,344 MW1,281 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,355 MW1,328 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,443 MW1,402 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,488 MW1,257 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,470 MW1,274 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,434 MW1,295 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,388 MW1,261 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,344 MW1,179 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,227 MW1,104 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,180 MW1,045 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (715 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-11. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ava_2026,
  title = {{AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-11. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.