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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for JEA was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 55% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 175 MW (15.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for JEA was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 55% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 175 MW (15.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, JEA came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 61 MW, against average demand of 1,373 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 86% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error4.7%
Bias+4.0%
Hours within 5%55%
Worst miss175 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+50 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 175 MW (15.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 1,321 MW, reported 1,146 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
JEA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for JEA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for JEA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:001,424 MW1,482 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,554 MW1,578 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,687 MW1,674 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,812 MW1,772 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,899 MW1,850 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,969 MW1,926 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,980 MW1,954 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,889 MW1,950 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,887 MW1,939 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,866 MW1,883 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,863 MW1,863 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,805 MW1,821 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,695 MW1,758 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,591 MW1,671 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,474 MW1,570 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,363 MW1,449 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,244 MW1,304 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,167 MW1,232 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,117 MW1,187 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,097 MW1,133 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,113 MW1,144 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,178 MW1,272 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,302 MW1,371 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,362 MW1,389 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,438 MW1,461 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,558 MW1,550 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,684 MW1,639 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,809 MW1,723 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,902 MW1,801 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,966 MW1,869 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,003 MW1,925 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,973 MW1,887 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,877 MW1,894 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,780 MW1,842 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,744 MW1,820 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,695 MW1,750 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,620 MW1,649 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,541 MW1,577 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,443 MW1,482 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,324 MW1,401 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,224 MW1,284 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,147 MW1,178 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,083 MW1,122 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,034 MW1,065 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,015 MW1,059 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,013 MW1,087 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,045 MW1,120 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,094 MW1,175 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,201 MW1,301 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,278 MW1,412 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,347 MW1,516 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,423 MW1,574 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,515 MW1,623 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,586 MW1,652 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,613 MW1,663 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,623 MW1,674 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,602 MW1,669 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,534 MW1,557 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,488 MW1,552 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,408 MW1,484 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,342 MW1,417 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,274 MW1,320 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,202 MW1,303 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,117 MW1,234 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,038 MW1,177 MW
8 Nov, 01:00978 MW1,104 MW
8 Nov, 02:00951 MW1,051 MW
8 Nov, 03:00936 MW999 MW
8 Nov, 04:00924 MW984 MW
8 Nov, 05:00905 MW967 MW
8 Nov, 06:00942 MW993 MW
8 Nov, 07:00998 MW1,097 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,094 MW1,189 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,169 MW1,254 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,248 MW1,324 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,327 MW1,393 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,404 MW1,484 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,471 MW1,504 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,511 MW1,502 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,517 MW1,489 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,496 MW1,492 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,495 MW1,471 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,506 MW1,489 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,453 MW1,463 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,382 MW1,427 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,295 MW1,362 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,187 MW1,293 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,080 MW1,196 MW
9 Nov, 00:00997 MW1,094 MW
9 Nov, 01:00941 MW1,016 MW
9 Nov, 02:00912 MW979 MW
9 Nov, 03:00905 MW961 MW
9 Nov, 04:00928 MW998 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,003 MW1,105 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,125 MW1,204 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,184 MW1,259 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,220 MW1,296 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,266 MW1,338 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,316 MW1,381 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,362 MW1,424 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,431 MW1,460 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,498 MW1,497 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,546 MW1,531 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,584 MW1,564 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,589 MW1,600 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,586 MW1,628 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,600 MW1,634 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,514 MW1,605 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,461 MW1,544 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,369 MW1,470 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,252 MW1,368 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,138 MW1,253 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,049 MW1,131 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,003 MW1,065 MW
10 Nov, 02:00981 MW1,027 MW
10 Nov, 03:00958 MW1,014 MW
10 Nov, 04:00981 MW1,049 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,069 MW1,157 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,187 MW1,270 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,228 MW1,318 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,284 MW1,348 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,301 MW1,377 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,327 MW1,400 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,370 MW1,436 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,428 MW1,472 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,476 MW1,522 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,546 MW1,569 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,565 MW1,618 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,557 MW1,647 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,568 MW1,655 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,571 MW1,657 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,503 MW1,609 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,425 MW1,541 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,344 MW1,451 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,247 MW1,359 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,140 MW1,267 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,061 MW1,154 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,015 MW1,086 MW
11 Nov, 02:00986 MW1,037 MW
11 Nov, 03:00964 MW985 MW
11 Nov, 04:00997 MW987 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,034 MW1,026 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,123 MW1,091 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,187 MW1,121 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,256 MW1,174 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,304 MW1,233 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,325 MW1,299 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,379 MW1,374 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,453 MW1,413 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,525 MW1,452 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,625 MW1,497 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,629 MW1,519 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,573 MW1,515 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,570 MW1,544 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,581 MW1,553 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,509 MW1,458 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,439 MW1,476 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,357 MW1,377 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,243 MW1,288 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,138 MW1,180 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,052 MW1,144 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,000 MW1,067 MW
12 Nov, 02:00956 MW1,020 MW
12 Nov, 03:00946 MW981 MW
12 Nov, 04:00978 MW1,016 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,055 MW1,125 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,178 MW1,233 MW
12 Nov, 07:001,227 MW1,277 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_jea_2026,
  title = {{JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/}
}

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