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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for NWMT was off by 1.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 255 MW (23.6%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for NWMT was off by 1.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 255 MW (23.6%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, NWMT came 4 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 22 MW, against average demand of 1,285 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 41% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error1.7%
Bias-0.6%
Hours within 5%95%
Worst miss255 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-9 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 255 MW (23.6%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 1,336 MW, reported 1,081 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
NWMT day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NWMT over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 375 750 1,125 1,500 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NWMT over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:001,416 MW1,394 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,467 MW1,460 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,431 MW1,450 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,418 MW1,413 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,384 MW1,377 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,386 MW1,346 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,368 MW1,322 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,346 MW1,311 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,346 MW1,313 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,331 MW1,325 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,387 MW1,373 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,430 MW1,436 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,442 MW1,443 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,417 MW1,421 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,387 MW1,394 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,340 MW1,345 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,299 MW1,279 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,257 MW1,229 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,225 MW1,204 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,228 MW1,207 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,207 MW1,204 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,201 MW1,219 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,218 MW1,226 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,280 MW1,275 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,387 MW1,372 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,439 MW1,439 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,423 MW1,439 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,413 MW1,408 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,370 MW1,374 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,347 MW1,344 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,326 MW1,322 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,321 MW1,308 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,323 MW1,304 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,343 MW1,308 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,378 MW1,354 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,422 MW1,414 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,426 MW1,412 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,405 MW1,386 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,373 MW1,357 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,343 MW1,318 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,295 MW1,267 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,243 MW1,225 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,204 MW1,207 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,194 MW1,194 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,180 MW1,175 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,180 MW1,184 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,188 MW1,198 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,218 MW1,224 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,260 MW1,286 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,300 MW1,324 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,323 MW1,347 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,322 MW1,339 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,302 MW1,317 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,273 MW1,294 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,229 MW1,276 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,234 MW1,262 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,229 MW1,261 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,226 MW1,278 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,266 MW1,322 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,345 MW1,387 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,327 MW1,385 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,315 MW1,353 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,279 MW1,324 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,232 MW1,286 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,196 MW1,239 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,190 MW1,194 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,160 MW1,135 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,144 MW1,153 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,150 MW1,122 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,128 MW1,143 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,150 MW1,155 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,179 MW1,179 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,235 MW1,223 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,288 MW1,263 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,319 MW1,291 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,314 MW1,299 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,303 MW1,290 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,301 MW1,279 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,302 MW1,276 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,308 MW1,266 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,302 MW1,267 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,318 MW1,282 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,363 MW1,337 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,415 MW1,413 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,407 MW1,417 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,381 MW1,394 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,364 MW1,365 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,313 MW1,312 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,252 MW1,234 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,198 MW1,175 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,155 MW1,152 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,143 MW1,135 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,131 MW1,128 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,129 MW1,140 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,135 MW1,158 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,196 MW1,210 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,289 MW1,311 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,376 MW1,384 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,360 MW1,383 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,359 MW1,365 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,336 MW1,344 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,317 MW1,327 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,305 MW1,318 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,296 MW1,314 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,301 MW1,314 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,300 MW1,327 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,338 MW1,372 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,406 MW1,433 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,419 MW1,437 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,400 MW1,408 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,364 MW1,371 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,304 MW1,314 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,240 MW1,240 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,188 MW1,181 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,149 MW1,151 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,140 MW1,128 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,146 MW1,128 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,138 MW1,142 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,157 MW1,170 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,222 MW1,222 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,332 MW1,330 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,404 MW1,399 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,394 MW1,397 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,364 MW1,373 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,353 MW1,348 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,348 MW1,326 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,348 MW1,314 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,350 MW1,302 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,355 MW1,300 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,356 MW1,313 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,380 MW1,357 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,413 MW1,416 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,432 MW1,420 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,404 MW1,398 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,363 MW1,365 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,298 MW1,309 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,236 MW1,238 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,177 MW1,180 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,141 MW1,145 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,125 MW1,122 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,125 MW1,120 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,131 MW1,147 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,151 MW1,158 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,205 MW1,201 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,315 MW1,315 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,350 MW1,378 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,334 MW1,370 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,307 MW1,349 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,298 MW1,327 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,275 MW1,296 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,264 MW1,284 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,272 MW1,289 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,280 MW1,296 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,282 MW1,304 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,317 MW1,360 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,379 MW1,421 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,379 MW1,422 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,356 MW1,402 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,319 MW1,380 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,275 MW1,321 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,215 MW1,243 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,159 MW1,179 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,150 MW1,132 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,121 MW1,119 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,124 MW1,119 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,117 MW1,113 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,144 MW1,141 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,204 MW1,204 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nwmt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nwmt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_nwmt_2026,
  title = {{NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nwmt/}
}

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