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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AZPS was off by 13.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 715 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 14% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,382 MW (41.0%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AZPS was off by 13.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 715 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 14% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,382 MW (41.0%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AZPS came 46 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 581 MW, against average demand of 4,234 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 20% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

715 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error13.4%
Bias-9.1%
Hours within 5%14%
Worst miss2,382 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-446 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 2,382 MW (41.0%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 3,429 MW, reported 5,811 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
AZPS day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AZPS over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AZPS over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:004,592 MW3,923 MW
5 Nov, 07:004,432 MW3,664 MW
5 Nov, 08:003,547 MW3,305 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,146 MW3,063 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,202 MW2,949 MW
5 Nov, 11:003,062 MW2,964 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,139 MW3,107 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,520 MW3,319 MW
5 Nov, 14:003,670 MW3,640 MW
5 Nov, 15:003,866 MW3,922 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,114 MW4,180 MW
5 Nov, 17:004,449 MW4,242 MW
5 Nov, 18:004,874 MW4,248 MW
5 Nov, 19:004,813 MW4,147 MW
5 Nov, 20:004,682 MW4,031 MW
5 Nov, 21:004,493 MW3,807 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,266 MW3,599 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,206 MW3,473 MW
6 Nov, 00:003,876 MW3,511 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,650 MW3,431 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,769 MW3,406 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,765 MW3,481 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,987 MW3,654 MW
6 Nov, 05:003,999 MW3,894 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,175 MW3,910 MW
6 Nov, 07:004,133 MW3,695 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,439 MW3,390 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,202 MW3,218 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,317 MW3,090 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,359 MW3,163 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,288 MW3,320 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,208 MW3,513 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,353 MW3,782 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,670 MW4,009 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,090 MW4,186 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,367 MW4,189 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,600 MW4,142 MW
6 Nov, 19:004,441 MW4,059 MW
6 Nov, 20:004,393 MW3,973 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,426 MW3,801 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,314 MW3,620 MW
6 Nov, 23:003,863 MW3,476 MW
7 Nov, 00:003,768 MW3,526 MW
7 Nov, 01:003,911 MW3,406 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,784 MW3,354 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,780 MW3,369 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,864 MW3,470 MW
7 Nov, 05:003,965 MW3,600 MW
7 Nov, 06:003,827 MW3,618 MW
7 Nov, 07:003,986 MW3,572 MW
7 Nov, 08:003,530 MW3,507 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,950 MW3,333 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,914 MW3,137 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,988 MW3,232 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,874 MW3,419 MW
7 Nov, 13:003,041 MW3,668 MW
7 Nov, 14:003,171 MW3,855 MW
7 Nov, 15:003,419 MW4,071 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,001 MW4,302 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,625 MW4,291 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,705 MW4,215 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,523 MW4,079 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,604 MW3,955 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,308 MW3,763 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,170 MW3,553 MW
7 Nov, 23:004,030 MW3,422 MW
8 Nov, 00:003,571 MW3,448 MW
8 Nov, 01:003,752 MW3,384 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,660 MW3,399 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,740 MW3,380 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,791 MW3,395 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,902 MW3,505 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,046 MW3,541 MW
8 Nov, 07:003,987 MW3,444 MW
8 Nov, 08:003,266 MW3,430 MW
8 Nov, 09:003,238 MW3,169 MW
8 Nov, 10:003,013 MW3,023 MW
8 Nov, 11:003,137 MW3,212 MW
8 Nov, 12:003,117 MW3,258 MW
8 Nov, 13:003,080 MW3,561 MW
8 Nov, 14:003,205 MW3,729 MW
8 Nov, 15:003,195 MW4,030 MW
8 Nov, 16:003,975 MW4,336 MW
8 Nov, 17:004,532 MW4,430 MW
8 Nov, 18:004,817 MW4,291 MW
8 Nov, 19:004,795 MW4,159 MW
8 Nov, 20:004,546 MW3,932 MW
8 Nov, 21:004,479 MW3,725 MW
8 Nov, 22:004,400 MW3,499 MW
8 Nov, 23:003,921 MW3,409 MW
9 Nov, 00:003,805 MW3,432 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,862 MW3,453 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,916 MW3,431 MW
9 Nov, 03:004,007 MW3,514 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,194 MW3,716 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,376 MW3,999 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,446 MW4,053 MW
9 Nov, 07:004,378 MW3,816 MW
9 Nov, 08:003,702 MW3,501 MW
9 Nov, 09:003,284 MW3,367 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,164 MW3,295 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,065 MW3,401 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,828 MW3,645 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,996 MW3,853 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,192 MW4,168 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,647 MW4,400 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,876 MW4,512 MW
9 Nov, 17:004,652 MW4,511 MW
9 Nov, 18:004,783 MW4,430 MW
9 Nov, 19:004,762 MW4,305 MW
9 Nov, 20:004,723 MW4,149 MW
9 Nov, 21:004,845 MW3,889 MW
9 Nov, 22:004,728 MW3,639 MW
9 Nov, 23:004,562 MW3,491 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,448 MW3,553 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,206 MW3,516 MW
10 Nov, 02:004,142 MW3,478 MW
10 Nov, 03:004,133 MW3,536 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,253 MW3,732 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,386 MW3,994 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,423 MW4,019 MW
10 Nov, 07:004,336 MW3,796 MW
10 Nov, 08:003,758 MW3,495 MW
10 Nov, 09:003,210 MW3,367 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,873 MW3,276 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,845 MW3,380 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,062 MW3,609 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,459 MW3,834 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,596 MW4,172 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,731 MW4,383 MW
10 Nov, 16:004,357 MW4,504 MW
10 Nov, 17:005,179 MW4,480 MW
10 Nov, 18:005,135 MW4,414 MW
10 Nov, 19:005,162 MW4,304 MW
10 Nov, 20:005,107 MW4,155 MW
10 Nov, 21:004,878 MW3,902 MW
10 Nov, 22:004,878 MW3,643 MW
10 Nov, 23:004,562 MW3,509 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,242 MW3,613 MW
11 Nov, 01:004,289 MW3,552 MW
11 Nov, 02:004,221 MW3,522 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,235 MW3,568 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,267 MW3,705 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,404 MW3,852 MW
11 Nov, 06:004,512 MW3,891 MW
11 Nov, 07:004,301 MW3,726 MW
11 Nov, 08:003,868 MW3,491 MW
11 Nov, 09:003,129 MW3,373 MW
11 Nov, 10:003,092 MW3,276 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,926 MW3,352 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,968 MW3,597 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,259 MW3,907 MW
11 Nov, 14:003,702 MW4,229 MW
11 Nov, 15:003,950 MW4,446 MW
11 Nov, 16:004,157 MW4,534 MW
11 Nov, 17:004,722 MW4,544 MW
11 Nov, 18:004,675 MW4,472 MW
11 Nov, 19:004,823 MW4,357 MW
11 Nov, 20:004,792 MW4,198 MW
11 Nov, 21:004,635 MW3,901 MW
11 Nov, 22:004,286 MW3,651 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,026 MW3,526 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,072 MW3,579 MW
12 Nov, 01:004,018 MW3,482 MW
12 Nov, 02:004,106 MW3,449 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,057 MW3,533 MW
12 Nov, 04:004,154 MW3,726 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,907 MW3,996 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (715 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/azps/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/azps/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_azps_2026,
  title = {{AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/azps/}
}

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