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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 10 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for NEVP was off by 10.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 665 hours from 13 October to 10 November 2026, and 21% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -10.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,672 MW (30.5%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for NEVP was off by 10.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 665 hours from 13 October to 10 November 2026, and 21% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -10.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,672 MW (30.5%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, NEVP came 44 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 475 MW, against average demand of 4,237 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 4% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

665 hours from 13 October to 10 November 2026
Average error10.9%
Bias-10.7%
Hours within 5%21%
Worst miss1,672 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-466 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,672 MW (30.5%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 3,815 MW, reported 5,487 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-10. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 10 Nov 2026, 23:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
NEVP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NEVP over the last 7 days of the window, to 10 Nov 2026, 23:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 4 Nov, 00:005 Nov, 00:006 Nov, 00:007 Nov, 00:008 Nov, 00:009 Nov, 00:0010 Nov, 00:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NEVP over the last 7 days of the window, to 10 Nov 2026, 23:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-10
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
4 Nov, 00:003,837 MW3,333 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,736 MW3,220 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,684 MW3,169 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,669 MW3,169 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,720 MW3,192 MW
4 Nov, 05:003,881 MW3,310 MW
4 Nov, 06:003,996 MW3,466 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,992 MW3,485 MW
4 Nov, 08:004,509 MW3,436 MW
4 Nov, 09:004,552 MW3,331 MW
4 Nov, 10:004,527 MW3,323 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,304 MW3,311 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,373 MW3,360 MW
4 Nov, 13:004,308 MW3,386 MW
4 Nov, 14:004,199 MW3,449 MW
4 Nov, 15:004,243 MW3,610 MW
4 Nov, 16:004,321 MW3,872 MW
4 Nov, 17:004,570 MW4,102 MW
4 Nov, 18:004,523 MW4,253 MW
4 Nov, 19:004,456 MW4,146 MW
4 Nov, 20:004,365 MW4,102 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,227 MW3,953 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,066 MW3,797 MW
4 Nov, 23:003,897 MW3,686 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,827 MW3,558 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,838 MW3,501 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,726 MW3,462 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,692 MW3,434 MW
5 Nov, 04:003,758 MW3,471 MW
5 Nov, 05:003,916 MW3,644 MW
5 Nov, 06:004,025 MW3,726 MW
5 Nov, 07:003,959 MW3,802 MW
5 Nov, 08:004,533 MW3,802 MW
5 Nov, 09:004,219 MW3,631 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,428 MW3,546 MW
5 Nov, 11:004,591 MW3,545 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,311 MW3,476 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,122 MW3,603 MW
5 Nov, 14:004,335 MW3,815 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,248 MW4,055 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,412 MW4,229 MW
5 Nov, 17:004,553 MW4,564 MW
5 Nov, 18:004,512 MW4,557 MW
5 Nov, 19:004,441 MW4,454 MW
5 Nov, 20:004,371 MW4,378 MW
5 Nov, 21:004,073 MW4,238 MW
5 Nov, 22:003,956 MW4,048 MW
5 Nov, 23:003,916 MW3,891 MW
6 Nov, 00:003,960 MW3,452 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,777 MW3,389 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,710 MW3,339 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,714 MW3,337 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,759 MW3,343 MW
6 Nov, 05:003,952 MW3,507 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,072 MW3,561 MW
6 Nov, 07:004,279 MW3,584 MW
6 Nov, 08:004,619 MW3,613 MW
6 Nov, 09:004,604 MW3,546 MW
6 Nov, 10:004,585 MW3,422 MW
6 Nov, 11:004,488 MW3,395 MW
6 Nov, 12:004,276 MW3,348 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,102 MW3,500 MW
6 Nov, 14:004,073 MW3,700 MW
6 Nov, 15:004,258 MW3,920 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,468 MW4,120 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,547 MW4,333 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,484 MW4,379 MW
6 Nov, 19:004,407 MW4,249 MW
6 Nov, 20:004,326 MW4,171 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,235 MW4,033 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,087 MW3,944 MW
6 Nov, 23:003,926 MW3,793 MW
7 Nov, 00:003,823 MW3,638 MW
7 Nov, 01:003,732 MW3,549 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,665 MW3,496 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,643 MW3,483 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,652 MW3,521 MW
7 Nov, 05:003,707 MW3,566 MW
7 Nov, 06:003,718 MW3,536 MW
7 Nov, 07:003,794 MW3,378 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,353 MW3,313 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,411 MW3,149 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,123 MW3,163 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,380 MW3,232 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,046 MW3,248 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,245 MW3,437 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,335 MW3,684 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,237 MW3,947 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,347 MW4,143 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,439 MW4,316 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,337 MW4,293 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,256 MW4,218 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,180 MW4,148 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,084 MW4,039 MW
7 Nov, 22:003,962 MW3,960 MW
7 Nov, 23:003,848 MW3,825 MW
8 Nov, 00:003,619 MW3,478 MW
8 Nov, 01:003,720 MW3,422 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,660 MW3,344 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,593 MW3,312 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,608 MW3,302 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,662 MW3,387 MW
8 Nov, 06:003,656 MW3,343 MW
8 Nov, 07:003,856 MW3,240 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,258 MW3,228 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,411 MW3,128 MW
8 Nov, 10:004,332 MW3,167 MW
8 Nov, 11:004,175 MW3,195 MW
8 Nov, 12:004,244 MW3,271 MW
8 Nov, 13:004,200 MW3,428 MW
8 Nov, 14:004,164 MW3,662 MW
8 Nov, 15:004,333 MW3,971 MW
8 Nov, 16:004,417 MW4,134 MW
8 Nov, 17:004,500 MW4,267 MW
8 Nov, 18:004,413 MW4,262 MW
8 Nov, 19:004,350 MW4,220 MW
8 Nov, 20:004,246 MW4,155 MW
8 Nov, 21:004,126 MW4,023 MW
8 Nov, 22:003,982 MW3,919 MW
8 Nov, 23:003,826 MW3,773 MW
9 Nov, 00:003,732 MW3,449 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,660 MW3,411 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,609 MW3,363 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,605 MW3,332 MW
9 Nov, 04:003,679 MW3,360 MW
9 Nov, 05:003,842 MW3,506 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,025 MW3,603 MW
9 Nov, 07:004,323 MW3,572 MW
9 Nov, 08:004,560 MW3,568 MW
9 Nov, 09:004,363 MW3,403 MW
9 Nov, 10:004,256 MW3,381 MW
9 Nov, 11:004,129 MW3,371 MW
9 Nov, 12:004,050 MW3,447 MW
9 Nov, 13:004,116 MW3,619 MW
9 Nov, 14:004,176 MW3,834 MW
9 Nov, 15:004,351 MW4,078 MW
9 Nov, 16:004,548 MW4,199 MW
9 Nov, 17:004,600 MW4,357 MW
9 Nov, 18:004,553 MW4,390 MW
9 Nov, 19:004,538 MW4,317 MW
9 Nov, 20:004,372 MW4,242 MW
9 Nov, 21:004,169 MW4,072 MW
9 Nov, 22:004,034 MW3,959 MW
9 Nov, 23:003,856 MW3,770 MW
10 Nov, 00:003,750 MW3,527 MW
10 Nov, 01:003,759 MW3,452 MW
10 Nov, 02:003,629 MW3,398 MW
10 Nov, 03:003,623 MW3,391 MW
10 Nov, 04:003,689 MW3,436 MW
10 Nov, 05:003,851 MW3,620 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,000 MW3,735 MW
10 Nov, 07:004,115 MW3,682 MW
10 Nov, 08:004,300 MW3,612 MW
10 Nov, 09:004,467 MW3,521 MW
10 Nov, 10:004,383 MW3,471 MW
10 Nov, 11:004,350 MW3,473 MW
10 Nov, 12:004,333 MW3,574 MW
10 Nov, 13:004,359 MW3,727 MW
10 Nov, 14:004,467 MW3,995 MW
10 Nov, 15:004,421 MW4,286 MW
10 Nov, 16:004,540 MW4,451 MW
10 Nov, 17:004,675 MW4,598 MW
10 Nov, 18:004,547 MW4,570 MW
10 Nov, 19:004,452 MW4,491 MW
10 Nov, 20:004,318 MW4,378 MW
10 Nov, 21:004,287 MW4,217 MW
10 Nov, 22:004,058 MW4,059 MW
10 Nov, 23:003,896 MW3,866 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (665 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-10. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_nevp_2026,
  title = {{NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-10. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/}
}

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