Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-12
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 20.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 692 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -20.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,072 MW (36.9%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 20.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 692 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -20.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,072 MW (36.9%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PSCO came 48 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 959 MW, against average demand of 4,492 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

692 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error20.9%
Bias-20.9%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss2,072 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-959 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 2,072 MW (36.9%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 3,543 MW, reported 5,615 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
PSCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:004,703 MW3,635 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,111 MW3,750 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,177 MW3,732 MW
5 Nov, 09:004,960 MW3,577 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,693 MW3,426 MW
5 Nov, 11:004,662 MW3,301 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,695 MW3,232 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,862 MW3,284 MW
5 Nov, 14:004,972 MW3,350 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,877 MW3,488 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,713 MW3,676 MW
5 Nov, 17:004,887 MW3,901 MW
5 Nov, 18:004,950 MW4,064 MW
5 Nov, 19:004,809 MW4,110 MW
5 Nov, 20:004,612 MW4,028 MW
5 Nov, 21:004,445 MW3,951 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,238 MW3,787 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,062 MW3,654 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,040 MW3,458 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,965 MW3,330 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,923 MW3,271 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,927 MW3,257 MW
6 Nov, 04:004,082 MW3,285 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,298 MW3,421 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,795 MW3,623 MW
6 Nov, 07:005,058 MW3,863 MW
6 Nov, 08:004,900 MW3,915 MW
6 Nov, 09:004,588 MW3,865 MW
6 Nov, 10:004,303 MW3,750 MW
6 Nov, 11:004,372 MW3,659 MW
6 Nov, 12:004,525 MW3,637 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,659 MW3,615 MW
6 Nov, 14:004,364 MW3,598 MW
6 Nov, 15:004,448 MW3,668 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,704 MW3,748 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,700 MW3,889 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,869 MW4,021 MW
6 Nov, 19:004,788 MW3,970 MW
6 Nov, 20:004,732 MW3,899 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,756 MW3,835 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,679 MW3,724 MW
6 Nov, 23:004,457 MW3,581 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,208 MW3,534 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,117 MW3,455 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,994 MW3,415 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,967 MW3,401 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,954 MW3,385 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,086 MW3,428 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,422 MW3,465 MW
7 Nov, 07:004,663 MW3,548 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,411 MW3,518 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,348 MW3,356 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,260 MW3,232 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,172 MW3,109 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,170 MW3,056 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,542 MW3,088 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,622 MW3,158 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,535 MW3,332 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,483 MW3,568 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,632 MW3,816 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,627 MW4,014 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,547 MW4,025 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,442 MW3,954 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,243 MW3,876 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,172 MW3,781 MW
7 Nov, 23:004,068 MW3,589 MW
8 Nov, 00:003,955 MW3,496 MW
8 Nov, 01:003,772 MW3,412 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,763 MW3,337 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,798 MW3,306 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,910 MW3,293 MW
8 Nov, 05:004,123 MW3,338 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,184 MW3,373 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,405 MW3,438 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,443 MW3,416 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,021 MW3,254 MW
8 Nov, 10:003,917 MW3,114 MW
8 Nov, 11:004,059 MW3,037 MW
8 Nov, 12:004,181 MW3,016 MW
8 Nov, 13:004,249 MW3,087 MW
8 Nov, 14:004,502 MW3,181 MW
8 Nov, 15:004,718 MW3,357 MW
8 Nov, 16:004,795 MW3,593 MW
8 Nov, 17:005,344 MW3,899 MW
8 Nov, 18:005,424 MW4,086 MW
8 Nov, 19:005,252 MW4,116 MW
8 Nov, 20:005,161 MW4,004 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,117 MW3,880 MW
8 Nov, 22:004,858 MW3,717 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,513 MW3,520 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,329 MW3,418 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,130 MW3,362 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,020 MW3,328 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,956 MW3,337 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,090 MW3,355 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,294 MW3,491 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,762 MW3,635 MW
9 Nov, 07:005,010 MW3,826 MW
9 Nov, 08:004,903 MW3,844 MW
9 Nov, 09:004,745 MW3,690 MW
9 Nov, 10:004,682 MW3,560 MW
9 Nov, 11:004,797 MW3,473 MW
9 Nov, 12:004,850 MW3,464 MW
9 Nov, 13:005,018 MW3,492 MW
9 Nov, 14:005,188 MW3,537 MW
9 Nov, 15:005,146 MW3,679 MW
9 Nov, 16:004,930 MW3,860 MW
9 Nov, 17:004,993 MW4,122 MW
9 Nov, 18:004,920 MW4,285 MW
9 Nov, 19:004,841 MW4,237 MW
9 Nov, 20:004,594 MW4,113 MW
9 Nov, 21:004,330 MW3,965 MW
9 Nov, 22:004,150 MW3,805 MW
9 Nov, 23:003,901 MW3,606 MW
10 Nov, 00:003,778 MW3,461 MW
10 Nov, 01:003,796 MW3,364 MW
10 Nov, 02:003,780 MW3,307 MW
10 Nov, 03:003,857 MW3,313 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,010 MW3,320 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,351 MW3,453 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,886 MW3,613 MW
10 Nov, 07:005,201 MW3,816 MW
10 Nov, 08:005,235 MW3,849 MW
10 Nov, 09:004,907 MW3,729 MW
10 Nov, 10:004,758 MW3,621 MW
10 Nov, 11:004,662 MW3,488 MW
10 Nov, 12:004,738 MW3,497 MW
10 Nov, 13:004,893 MW3,530 MW
10 Nov, 14:004,937 MW3,593 MW
10 Nov, 15:004,823 MW3,713 MW
10 Nov, 16:004,735 MW3,893 MW
10 Nov, 17:004,966 MW4,132 MW
10 Nov, 18:005,074 MW4,251 MW
10 Nov, 19:005,114 MW4,162 MW
10 Nov, 20:004,993 MW4,041 MW
10 Nov, 21:004,912 MW3,905 MW
10 Nov, 22:004,812 MW3,769 MW
10 Nov, 23:004,322 MW3,675 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,061 MW3,489 MW
11 Nov, 01:003,957 MW3,370 MW
11 Nov, 02:003,981 MW3,293 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,003 MW3,279 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,082 MW3,263 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,415 MW3,356 MW
11 Nov, 06:004,832 MW3,485 MW
11 Nov, 07:005,120 MW3,669 MW
11 Nov, 08:005,123 MW3,679 MW
11 Nov, 09:004,895 MW3,551 MW
11 Nov, 10:004,722 MW3,426 MW
11 Nov, 11:004,611 MW3,381 MW
11 Nov, 12:004,627 MW3,360 MW
11 Nov, 13:004,723 MW3,397 MW
11 Nov, 14:004,895 MW3,398 MW
11 Nov, 15:004,870 MW3,543 MW
11 Nov, 16:004,719 MW3,748 MW
11 Nov, 17:004,906 MW4,051 MW
11 Nov, 18:004,857 MW4,206 MW
11 Nov, 19:004,827 MW4,166 MW
11 Nov, 20:004,705 MW4,049 MW
11 Nov, 21:004,556 MW3,915 MW
11 Nov, 22:004,293 MW3,781 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,306 MW3,648 MW
12 Nov, 00:003,538 MW3,483 MW
12 Nov, 01:003,497 MW3,376 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,501 MW3,286 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,571 MW3,284 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,572 MW3,281 MW
12 Nov, 05:003,760 MW3,408 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (692 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_psco_2026,
  title = {{PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.