Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina was off by 42.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 675 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 8% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +41.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,131 MW (131.1%) too high at 8 Nov 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Sarajevo).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina was off by 42.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 675 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 8% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +41.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,131 MW (131.1%) too high at 8 Nov 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Bosnia and Herzegovina came 47 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 332 MW, against average demand of 1,034 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 96% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

675 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error42.1%

Bias+41.9%

Hours within 5%8%

Worst miss1,131 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+328 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,131 MW (131.1%) too high at 8 Nov 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 1,994 MW, reported 863 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00	1,167 MW	1,711 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	1,271 MW	1,810 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	1,465 MW	1,834 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	1,549 MW	1,880 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,509 MW	1,813 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,499 MW	1,779 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	1,436 MW	1,715 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	1,291 MW	1,666 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	1,184 MW	1,468 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	1,038 MW	1,277 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	867 MW	1,117 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	802 MW	1,029 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	801 MW	1,001 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	784 MW	993 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	807 MW	1,012 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	953 MW	1,120 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	1,229 MW	1,347 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	1,462 MW	1,563 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	1,466 MW	1,616 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	1,344 MW	1,592 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	1,184 MW	1,520 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	1,063 MW	1,434 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	973 MW	1,412 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	1,122 MW	1,488 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	1,302 MW	1,543 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	1,412 MW	1,619 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	1,596 MW	1,705 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	1,644 MW	1,777 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	1,556 MW	1,752 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	1,471 MW	1,701 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	1,421 MW	1,633 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	1,331 MW	1,548 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	1,169 MW	1,418 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	1,065 MW	1,272 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	949 MW	1,110 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	880 MW	1,017 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	838 MW	988 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	791 MW	979 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	872 MW	994 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	931 MW	1,059 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	1,085 MW	1,202 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	1,283 MW	1,400 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	1,430 MW	1,519 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	1,393 MW	1,595 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	1,094 MW	1,563 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	935 MW	1,451 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	913 MW	1,444 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	1,044 MW	1,482 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	1,173 MW	1,523 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	1,434 MW	1,617 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	1,581 MW	1,697 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	1,660 MW	1,732 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	1,558 MW	1,691 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	1,490 MW	1,651 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	1,383 MW	1,575 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	1,220 MW	1,489 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	1,073 MW	1,282 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	970 MW	1,146 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	844 MW	1,128 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	766 MW	1,034 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	710 MW	991 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	681 MW	982 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	679 MW	987 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	733 MW	1,028 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	817 MW	1,134 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	957 MW	1,349 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	1,118 MW	1,545 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	1,087 MW	1,924 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	979 MW	1,934 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	863 MW	1,994 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	958 MW	1,987 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	1,013 MW	1,969 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	1,113 MW	1,697 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	1,173 MW	1,610 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	1,322 MW	1,721 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	1,401 MW	1,753 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	1,345 MW	1,728 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	1,268 MW	1,699 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	1,188 MW	1,636 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	1,089 MW	1,575 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	905 MW	1,399 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	751 MW	1,225 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	671 MW	1,069 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	484 MW	989 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	585 MW	956 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	540 MW	944 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	508 MW	973 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	699 MW	1,086 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	1,093 MW	1,330 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	1,298 MW	1,567 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	1,424 MW	1,658 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	1,268 MW	1,627 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	1,029 MW	1,569 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	815 MW	1,488 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	767 MW	1,486 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	838 MW	1,536 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	1,144 MW	1,633 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,349 MW	1,750 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	1,552 MW	1,719 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	1,637 MW	1,854 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	1,561 MW	1,913 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	1,467 MW	1,879 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	1,360 MW	1,810 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	1,227 MW	1,688 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	1,080 MW	1,576 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	915 MW	1,270 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	800 MW	1,104 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	597 MW	1,028 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	524 MW	988 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	531 MW	972 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	515 MW	1,003 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	625 MW	1,096 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	965 MW	1,375 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	1,275 MW	1,595 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	1,452 MW	1,663 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	1,457 MW	1,667 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	1,358 MW	1,588 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	1,403 MW	1,539 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	1,444 MW	1,517 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	1,501 MW	1,574 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	1,495 MW	1,625 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	1,519 MW	1,657 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	1,518 MW	1,722 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	1,434 MW	1,804 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	1,382 MW	1,766 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	1,299 MW	1,733 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	1,327 MW	1,670 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	1,165 MW	1,571 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	1,011 MW	1,421 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	880 MW	1,273 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	696 MW	1,076 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	603 MW	975 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	525 MW	945 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	575 MW	929 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	664 MW	966 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	824 MW	1,056 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	980 MW	1,315 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	1,258 MW	1,543 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	1,308 MW	1,595 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	1,312 MW	1,591 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	1,301 MW	1,508 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	1,261 MW	1,460 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	1,231 MW	1,445 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	1,252 MW	1,473 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	1,278 MW	1,496 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	1,360 MW	1,595 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	1,430 MW	1,677 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	1,448 MW	1,744 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	1,446 MW	1,696 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	1,325 MW	1,662 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	1,279 MW	1,603 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	1,153 MW	1,535 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	918 MW	1,388 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	735 MW	1,232 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	595 MW	1,045 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	499 MW	985 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	478 MW	956 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	515 MW	947 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	585 MW	968 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	709 MW	1,039 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	996 MW	1,308 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	1,272 MW	1,528 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	1,425 MW	1,580 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	1,498 MW	1,598 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	1,431 MW	1,538 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	1,478 MW	1,514 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	1,459 MW	1,511 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	1,390 MW	1,534 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (675 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ba_2026,
  title = {{Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/}
}

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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