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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 647 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 647 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BANC came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 35 MW, against average demand of 1,728 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 54% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

647 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error1.8%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%95%
Worst miss1,014 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,763 MW, reported 2,777 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
BANC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:001,624 MW1,612 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,809 MW1,786 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,875 MW1,874 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,821 MW1,843 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,715 MW1,781 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,673 MW1,730 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,687 MW1,698 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,682 MW1,700 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,691 MW1,720 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,718 MW1,749 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,793 MW1,800 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,887 MW1,874 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,989 MW1,992 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,966 MW1,973 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,938 MW1,922 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,893 MW1,877 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,810 MW1,783 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,700 MW1,668 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,586 MW1,572 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,598 MW1,598 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,536 MW1,550 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,497 MW1,509 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,481 MW1,497 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,525 MW1,536 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,635 MW1,647 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,795 MW1,810 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,879 MW1,898 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,835 MW1,867 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,795 MW1,801 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,767 MW1,741 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,744 MW1,696 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,722 MW1,684 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,709 MW1,704 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,812 MW1,729 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,790 MW1,775 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,858 MW1,843 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,944 MW1,957 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,925 MW1,930 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,874 MW1,874 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,823 MW1,831 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,771 MW1,754 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,686 MW1,663 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,592 MW1,579 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,590 MWn/a
7 Nov, 01:001,521 MWn/a
7 Nov, 02:001,472 MWn/a
7 Nov, 03:001,442 MWn/a
7 Nov, 04:001,449 MWn/a
7 Nov, 05:001,493 MWn/a
7 Nov, 06:001,568 MWn/a
7 Nov, 07:001,609 MWn/a
7 Nov, 08:001,636 MWn/a
7 Nov, 09:001,613 MWn/a
7 Nov, 10:001,583 MWn/a
7 Nov, 11:001,576 MWn/a
7 Nov, 12:001,564 MWn/a
7 Nov, 13:001,599 MWn/a
7 Nov, 14:001,645 MWn/a
7 Nov, 15:001,697 MWn/a
7 Nov, 16:001,771 MWn/a
7 Nov, 17:001,868 MWn/a
7 Nov, 18:001,845 MWn/a
7 Nov, 19:001,793 MWn/a
7 Nov, 20:001,741 MWn/a
7 Nov, 21:001,699 MWn/a
7 Nov, 22:001,623 MWn/a
7 Nov, 23:001,570 MWn/a
8 Nov, 00:001,535 MW1,532 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,477 MW1,471 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,423 MW1,425 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,409 MW1,403 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,409 MW1,412 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,450 MW1,454 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,511 MW1,512 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,553 MW1,559 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,588 MW1,596 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,569 MW1,602 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,574 MW1,583 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,582 MW1,554 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,559 MW1,547 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,595 MW1,568 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,650 MW1,605 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,710 MW1,662 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,800 MW1,748 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,919 MW1,879 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,895 MW1,884 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,850 MW1,851 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,800 MW1,792 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,721 MW1,717 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,621 MW1,613 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,506 MW1,518 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,499 MW1,511 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,442 MW1,458 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,408 MW1,422 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,386 MW1,414 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,438 MW1,462 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,562 MW1,571 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,731 MW1,736 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,802 MW1,838 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,787 MW1,841 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,768 MW1,815 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,752 MW1,779 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,735 MW1,752 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,745 MW1,746 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,843 MW1,758 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,800 MW1,779 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,831 MW1,819 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,899 MW1,892 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,987 MW2,005 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,977 MW2,001 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,916 MW1,960 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,866 MW1,897 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,774 MW1,804 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,660 MW1,687 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,534 MW1,587 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,537 MW1,548 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,462 MW1,491 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,420 MW1,447 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,404 MW1,430 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,460 MW1,472 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,549 MW1,574 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,735 MW1,748 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,812 MW1,835 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,779 MW1,829 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,735 MW1,808 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,682 MW1,776 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,670 MW1,761 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,686 MW1,761 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,717 MW1,781 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,765 MW1,810 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,835 MW1,854 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,917 MW1,922 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,997 MW2,012 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,961 MW1,989 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,896 MW1,951 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,845 MW1,905 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,759 MW1,823 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,659 MW1,707 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,549 MW1,605 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,544 MW1,557 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,484 MW1,495 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,432 MW1,438 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,414 MW1,423 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,458 MW1,461 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,536 MW1,556 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,664 MW1,692 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,720 MW1,760 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,751 MW1,784 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,727 MW1,783 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,708 MW1,762 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,681 MW1,755 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,709 MW1,766 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,730 MW1,780 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,790 MW1,791 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,685 MW1,837 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,896 MW1,919 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,984 MW2,009 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,949 MW1,982 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,890 MW1,940 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,846 MW1,883 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,767 MW1,819 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,661 MW1,706 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,541 MW1,604 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,545 MW1,570 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,480 MW1,491 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,433 MW1,449 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,407 MW1,436 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,446 MW1,483 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (647 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_banc_2026,
  title = {{BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/}
}

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