Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Belgium was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,367 MW (11.3%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Brussels).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Belgium was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,367 MW (11.3%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Belgium came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 281 MW, against average demand of 9,652 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 24% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error2.9%

Bias-1.9%

Hours within 5%85%

Worst miss1,367 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-180 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,367 MW (11.3%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 10,733 MW, reported 12,100 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Belgium over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 15:00	11,036 MW	10,768 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	10,601 MW	10,514 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	10,941 MW	10,800 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	11,310 MW	11,113 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	10,966 MW	10,823 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	10,466 MW	10,318 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	10,025 MW	9,749 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	9,785 MW	9,469 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	9,493 MW	9,201 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	8,880 MW	8,883 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	8,536 MW	8,514 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	8,399 MW	8,305 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	8,343 MW	8,310 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	8,511 MW	8,461 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	8,779 MW	8,740 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	9,534 MW	9,548 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	10,310 MW	10,409 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	11,060 MW	11,194 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	11,741 MW	11,785 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	11,649 MW	11,988 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	11,748 MW	12,588 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	11,687 MW	12,211 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	11,584 MW	11,952 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	11,167 MW	11,392 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	10,868 MW	10,781 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	10,752 MW	10,457 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	11,088 MW	10,732 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	11,117 MW	10,903 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	10,691 MW	10,537 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	10,344 MW	10,159 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	9,755 MW	9,746 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	9,616 MW	9,480 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	9,351 MW	9,237 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	8,883 MW	8,679 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	8,520 MW	8,254 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	8,305 MW	7,942 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	8,092 MW	7,834 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	7,953 MW	7,827 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	8,109 MW	7,834 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	8,373 MW	8,210 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	8,715 MW	8,550 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	9,205 MW	8,981 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	9,901 MW	9,404 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	10,175 MW	9,826 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	10,380 MW	10,366 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	10,393 MW	10,699 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	10,208 MW	10,392 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	9,876 MW	9,725 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	9,667 MW	9,355 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	9,691 MW	9,332 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	10,000 MW	9,749 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	10,086 MW	10,016 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	9,741 MW	9,728 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	9,206 MW	9,226 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	8,727 MW	8,903 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	8,617 MW	8,718 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	8,646 MW	8,471 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	8,234 MW	8,142 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	7,981 MW	7,911 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	7,623 MW	7,574 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	7,581 MW	7,465 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	7,515 MW	7,486 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	7,631 MW	7,585 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	7,908 MW	7,870 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	8,284 MW	8,118 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	8,742 MW	8,496 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	9,246 MW	9,132 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	9,611 MW	9,486 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	10,005 MW	9,988 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	10,047 MW	9,871 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	10,008 MW	9,640 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	9,797 MW	9,587 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	9,630 MW	9,211 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	9,493 MW	9,072 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	9,942 MW	9,480 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	10,248 MW	9,736 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	10,051 MW	9,542 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	9,636 MW	9,269 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	9,248 MW	8,989 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	9,148 MW	8,849 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	9,122 MW	8,573 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	8,589 MW	8,101 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	8,119 MW	7,914 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	7,949 MW	7,823 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	7,978 MW	7,815 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	8,126 MW	7,979 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	8,536 MW	8,337 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	9,475 MW	9,153 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	10,402 MW	9,846 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	11,157 MW	10,572 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	11,944 MW	11,138 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	12,371 MW	11,453 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	12,698 MW	11,827 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	12,501 MW	11,429 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	12,016 MW	11,132 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	11,285 MW	10,732 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	10,779 MW	10,611 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	10,647 MW	10,559 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	11,136 MW	11,004 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	11,270 MW	11,193 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	10,987 MW	10,863 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	10,640 MW	10,358 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	10,180 MW	9,884 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	9,896 MW	9,605 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	9,677 MW	9,420 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	9,025 MW	8,965 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	8,739 MW	8,511 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	8,535 MW	8,359 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	8,470 MW	8,323 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	8,552 MW	8,398 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	8,927 MW	8,700 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	9,635 MW	9,613 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	10,508 MW	10,655 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	11,099 MW	11,304 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	11,676 MW	11,607 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	12,023 MW	11,762 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	12,739 MW	11,872 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	12,498 MW	11,605 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	11,670 MW	11,435 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	10,910 MW	11,146 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	10,552 MW	11,050 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	10,510 MW	11,186 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	11,068 MW	11,597 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	11,076 MW	11,590 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	10,709 MW	11,084 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	10,271 MW	10,646 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	9,850 MW	10,144 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	9,754 MW	9,895 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	9,411 MW	9,648 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	8,785 MW	9,049 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	8,487 MW	8,278 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	8,322 MW	7,902 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	8,192 MW	7,758 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	8,116 MW	8,039 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	8,207 MW	8,123 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	8,193 MW	8,141 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	8,435 MW	8,372 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	8,683 MW	8,630 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	9,176 MW	9,302 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	9,521 MW	9,893 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	9,937 MW	10,308 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	9,943 MW	10,382 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	9,745 MW	10,058 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	9,583 MW	9,610 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	9,766 MW	9,351 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	9,860 MW	9,333 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	10,336 MW	9,748 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	10,553 MW	10,141 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	10,300 MW	10,010 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	9,836 MW	9,749 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	9,471 MW	9,434 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	9,518 MW	9,161 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	9,242 MW	8,834 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	8,549 MW	8,410 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	8,189 MW	8,094 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	8,051 MW	7,935 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	7,997 MW	7,955 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	8,112 MW	8,197 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	8,587 MW	8,792 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	9,642 MW	9,872 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	10,704 MW	10,610 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	11,268 MW	11,438 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	11,622 MW	12,191 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	11,948 MW	12,450 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	12,404 MW	12,721 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	11,938 MW	12,264 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	11,534 MW	11,937 MW
12 Nov, 14:00	11,148 MW	11,417 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_be_2026,
  title = {{Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.

Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related