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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,108 MW (10.8%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,108 MW (10.8%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South-Central (SE3) came 9 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 216 MW, against average demand of 9,760 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.2%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%94%
Worst miss1,108 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-3 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,108 MW (10.8%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 9,117 MW, reported 10,225 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden South-Central (SE3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,750 7,500 11,250 15,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:0010,263 MW10,571 MW
5 Nov, 15:0010,423 MW10,713 MW
5 Nov, 16:0010,751 MW11,185 MW
5 Nov, 17:0011,061 MW11,559 MW
5 Nov, 18:0010,959 MW11,470 MW
5 Nov, 19:0010,830 MW11,292 MW
5 Nov, 20:0010,607 MW10,937 MW
5 Nov, 21:0010,374 MW10,612 MW
5 Nov, 22:0010,225 MW10,268 MW
5 Nov, 23:009,994 MW9,989 MW
6 Nov, 00:009,837 MW9,633 MW
6 Nov, 01:009,605 MW9,444 MW
6 Nov, 02:009,638 MW9,336 MW
6 Nov, 03:009,396 MW9,319 MW
6 Nov, 04:009,417 MW9,483 MW
6 Nov, 05:0010,171 MW10,038 MW
6 Nov, 06:0010,948 MW10,979 MW
6 Nov, 07:0011,430 MW11,698 MW
6 Nov, 08:0011,544 MW11,841 MW
6 Nov, 09:0011,370 MW11,674 MW
6 Nov, 10:0011,028 MW11,475 MW
6 Nov, 11:0010,741 MW11,207 MW
6 Nov, 12:0010,549 MW10,984 MW
6 Nov, 13:0010,508 MW10,740 MW
6 Nov, 14:0010,607 MW10,730 MW
6 Nov, 15:0010,720 MW10,990 MW
6 Nov, 16:0011,036 MW11,466 MW
6 Nov, 17:0011,401 MW11,803 MW
6 Nov, 18:0011,370 MW11,631 MW
6 Nov, 19:0011,311 MW11,363 MW
6 Nov, 20:0010,981 MW10,977 MW
6 Nov, 21:0010,553 MW10,570 MW
6 Nov, 22:0010,243 MW10,330 MW
6 Nov, 23:0010,112 MW10,036 MW
7 Nov, 00:009,768 MW9,584 MW
7 Nov, 01:009,403 MW9,402 MW
7 Nov, 02:009,505 MW9,274 MW
7 Nov, 03:009,312 MW9,188 MW
7 Nov, 04:009,241 MW9,148 MW
7 Nov, 05:009,114 MW9,328 MW
7 Nov, 06:009,392 MW9,526 MW
7 Nov, 07:009,755 MW9,866 MW
7 Nov, 08:0010,048 MW10,131 MW
7 Nov, 09:0010,162 MW10,365 MW
7 Nov, 10:0010,313 MW10,386 MW
7 Nov, 11:0010,356 MW10,292 MW
7 Nov, 12:0010,311 MW10,164 MW
7 Nov, 13:0010,290 MW10,090 MW
7 Nov, 14:0010,371 MW10,071 MW
7 Nov, 15:0010,578 MW10,350 MW
7 Nov, 16:0010,906 MW10,820 MW
7 Nov, 17:0011,094 MW11,123 MW
7 Nov, 18:0011,015 MW11,037 MW
7 Nov, 19:0010,687 MW10,862 MW
7 Nov, 20:0010,437 MW10,549 MW
7 Nov, 21:0010,209 MW10,226 MW
7 Nov, 22:009,891 MW9,969 MW
7 Nov, 23:009,743 MW9,694 MW
8 Nov, 00:009,353 MW9,524 MW
8 Nov, 01:009,212 MW9,336 MW
8 Nov, 02:009,309 MW9,250 MW
8 Nov, 03:009,219 MW9,193 MW
8 Nov, 04:009,352 MW9,178 MW
8 Nov, 05:009,467 MW9,252 MW
8 Nov, 06:009,548 MW9,450 MW
8 Nov, 07:009,679 MW9,775 MW
8 Nov, 08:0010,094 MW10,070 MW
8 Nov, 09:0010,298 MW10,203 MW
8 Nov, 10:0010,365 MW10,303 MW
8 Nov, 11:0010,570 MW10,295 MW
8 Nov, 12:0010,778 MW10,263 MW
8 Nov, 13:0010,740 MW10,302 MW
8 Nov, 14:0010,608 MW10,362 MW
8 Nov, 15:0010,724 MW10,656 MW
8 Nov, 16:0011,099 MW11,124 MW
8 Nov, 17:0011,204 MW11,419 MW
8 Nov, 18:0011,143 MW11,378 MW
8 Nov, 19:0011,129 MW11,181 MW
8 Nov, 20:0011,029 MW10,925 MW
8 Nov, 21:0010,848 MW10,480 MW
8 Nov, 22:0010,542 MW10,128 MW
8 Nov, 23:0010,435 MW9,848 MW
9 Nov, 00:009,598 MW9,572 MW
9 Nov, 01:009,341 MW9,410 MW
9 Nov, 02:009,219 MW9,381 MW
9 Nov, 03:009,194 MW9,346 MW
9 Nov, 04:009,303 MW9,412 MW
9 Nov, 05:009,635 MW9,907 MW
9 Nov, 06:0010,413 MW10,878 MW
9 Nov, 07:0011,204 MW11,619 MW
9 Nov, 08:0011,457 MW11,759 MW
9 Nov, 09:0011,570 MW11,710 MW
9 Nov, 10:0011,568 MW11,600 MW
9 Nov, 11:0011,530 MW11,460 MW
9 Nov, 12:0011,640 MW11,348 MW
9 Nov, 13:0011,563 MW11,315 MW
9 Nov, 14:0011,570 MW11,316 MW
9 Nov, 15:0011,495 MW11,520 MW
9 Nov, 16:0011,691 MW11,909 MW
9 Nov, 17:0011,501 MW12,093 MW
9 Nov, 18:0011,543 MW11,920 MW
9 Nov, 19:0011,198 MW11,673 MW
9 Nov, 20:0010,833 MW11,296 MW
9 Nov, 21:0010,476 MW10,807 MW
9 Nov, 22:009,968 MW10,295 MW
9 Nov, 23:009,604 MW9,870 MW
10 Nov, 00:009,639 MW9,511 MW
10 Nov, 01:009,537 MW9,316 MW
10 Nov, 02:009,407 MW9,224 MW
10 Nov, 03:009,343 MW9,238 MW
10 Nov, 04:009,178 MW9,340 MW
10 Nov, 05:009,459 MW9,798 MW
10 Nov, 06:0010,284 MW10,721 MW
10 Nov, 07:0011,002 MW11,515 MW
10 Nov, 08:0011,028 MW11,613 MW
10 Nov, 09:0011,379 MW11,566 MW
10 Nov, 10:0011,407 MW11,514 MW
10 Nov, 11:0011,473 MW11,425 MW
10 Nov, 12:0011,366 MW11,311 MW
10 Nov, 13:0011,121 MW11,323 MW
10 Nov, 14:0011,266 MW11,337 MW
10 Nov, 15:0011,196 MW11,519 MW
10 Nov, 16:0011,343 MW11,860 MW
10 Nov, 17:0011,537 MW12,046 MW
10 Nov, 18:0011,315 MW11,837 MW
10 Nov, 19:0011,095 MW11,623 MW
10 Nov, 20:0010,747 MW11,225 MW
10 Nov, 21:0010,463 MW10,728 MW
10 Nov, 22:009,983 MW10,282 MW
10 Nov, 23:009,705 MW9,836 MW
11 Nov, 00:009,493 MW9,424 MW
11 Nov, 01:009,379 MW9,310 MW
11 Nov, 02:009,314 MW9,238 MW
11 Nov, 03:009,277 MW9,179 MW
11 Nov, 04:009,499 MW9,267 MW
11 Nov, 05:009,725 MW9,687 MW
11 Nov, 06:0010,348 MW10,587 MW
11 Nov, 07:0010,969 MW11,409 MW
11 Nov, 08:0011,068 MW11,547 MW
11 Nov, 09:0011,054 MW11,514 MW
11 Nov, 10:0011,040 MW11,509 MW
11 Nov, 11:0011,015 MW11,481 MW
11 Nov, 12:0010,974 MW11,429 MW
11 Nov, 13:0010,958 MW11,429 MW
11 Nov, 14:0011,033 MW11,446 MW
11 Nov, 15:0011,199 MW11,587 MW
11 Nov, 16:0011,385 MW11,840 MW
11 Nov, 17:0011,422 MW12,005 MW
11 Nov, 18:0011,430 MW11,793 MW
11 Nov, 19:0011,128 MW11,529 MW
11 Nov, 20:0010,973 MW11,174 MW
11 Nov, 21:0010,640 MW10,670 MW
11 Nov, 22:0010,257 MW10,180 MW
11 Nov, 23:009,883 MW9,815 MW
12 Nov, 00:009,521 MW9,387 MW
12 Nov, 01:009,369 MW9,234 MW
12 Nov, 02:009,252 MW9,146 MW
12 Nov, 03:009,274 MW9,122 MW
12 Nov, 04:009,578 MW9,192 MW
12 Nov, 05:009,579 MW9,650 MW
12 Nov, 06:0010,468 MW10,592 MW
12 Nov, 07:0011,284 MW11,312 MW
12 Nov, 08:0011,396 MW11,485 MW
12 Nov, 09:0011,736 MW11,558 MW
12 Nov, 10:0011,893 MW11,649 MW
12 Nov, 11:0012,083 MW11,648 MW
12 Nov, 12:0012,035 MW11,598 MW
12 Nov, 13:0012,045 MW11,592 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se3_2026,
  title = {{Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/}
}

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