Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 4.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 63% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Helsinki).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 4.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 63% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Finland came 32 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 444 MW, against average demand of 10,127 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 36% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

688 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error4.3%

Bias-1.3%

Hours within 5%63%

Worst miss1,598 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-160 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 10,169 MW, reported 11,767 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 16:00	11,426 MW	11,047 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	11,691 MW	11,205 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	11,719 MW	11,181 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	11,958 MW	11,143 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	11,808 MW	11,023 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	11,510 MW	10,851 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	11,460 MW	10,899 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	11,209 MW	10,596 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	10,928 MW	10,152 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	10,826 MW	10,544 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	10,640 MW	10,326 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	10,428 MW	10,161 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	10,446 MW	10,174 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	10,606 MW	10,366 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	11,078 MW	10,812 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	11,303 MW	11,048 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	10,897 MW	11,078 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	10,644 MW	11,035 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	10,493 MW	10,951 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	10,425 MW	10,850 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	10,116 MW	10,784 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	9,902 MW	10,698 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	9,856 MW	10,631 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	9,889 MW	10,648 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	10,425 MW	10,811 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	10,814 MW	10,911 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	11,090 MW	10,956 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	11,185 MW	11,032 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	11,280 MW	10,812 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	11,145 MW	10,706 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	11,244 MW	10,713 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	11,148 MW	10,513 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	10,953 MW	9,928 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	10,784 MW	10,324 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	10,595 MW	10,110 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	10,467 MW	9,951 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	10,341 MW	9,818 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	10,455 MW	9,784 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	10,557 MW	9,995 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	10,583 MW	10,170 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	10,686 MW	10,107 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	10,848 MW	10,134 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	11,017 MW	10,174 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	11,018 MW	10,282 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	10,905 MW	10,248 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	10,742 MW	10,233 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	10,887 MW	10,210 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	11,083 MW	10,234 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	11,349 MW	10,457 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	11,559 MW	10,644 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	11,619 MW	10,744 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	11,606 MW	10,811 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	11,349 MW	10,753 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	10,935 MW	10,499 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	11,002 MW	10,479 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	10,809 MW	10,219 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	10,534 MW	9,771 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	10,330 MW	10,199 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	10,108 MW	9,956 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	9,984 MW	9,763 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	9,878 MW	9,645 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	9,861 MW	9,638 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	10,043 MW	9,756 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	10,181 MW	9,825 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	10,325 MW	9,986 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	10,544 MW	10,091 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	10,866 MW	10,186 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	10,718 MW	10,181 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	10,516 MW	10,159 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	10,444 MW	10,123 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	10,359 MW	10,133 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	10,616 MW	10,233 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	10,902 MW	10,445 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	11,188 MW	10,615 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	11,285 MW	10,626 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	11,382 MW	10,672 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	11,154 MW	10,546 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	10,983 MW	10,317 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	11,105 MW	10,355 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	10,976 MW	10,191 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	10,709 MW	10,008 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	10,538 MW	10,362 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	10,244 MW	10,126 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	10,286 MW	10,009 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	10,336 MW	9,911 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	10,514 MW	10,113 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	11,145 MW	10,662 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	11,665 MW	11,021 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	11,810 MW	11,096 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	11,919 MW	11,123 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	11,912 MW	11,099 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	11,872 MW	11,004 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	11,849 MW	10,894 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	11,731 MW	10,822 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	11,707 MW	10,740 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	11,683 MW	10,864 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	11,907 MW	10,987 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	11,985 MW	11,118 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	12,067 MW	11,140 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	12,061 MW	11,130 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	11,928 MW	10,968 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	11,614 MW	10,706 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	11,483 MW	10,696 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	11,319 MW	10,451 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	10,992 MW	10,101 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	10,449 MW	10,441 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	10,390 MW	10,166 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	10,245 MW	10,015 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	10,413 MW	9,905 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	10,527 MW	10,101 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	11,030 MW	10,659 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	11,359 MW	11,107 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	11,445 MW	11,141 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	11,477 MW	11,129 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	11,402 MW	11,085 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	11,371 MW	10,962 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	11,203 MW	10,845 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	10,966 MW	10,749 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	10,808 MW	10,661 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	10,529 MW	10,690 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	10,360 MW	10,809 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	9,951 MW	10,908 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	9,851 MW	10,937 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	9,694 MW	10,894 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	9,700 MW	10,748 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	9,475 MW	10,466 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	9,370 MW	10,456 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	9,309 MW	10,271 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	9,149 MW	9,806 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	9,100 MW	9,168 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	9,046 MW	9,221 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	9,047 MW	9,306 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	9,042 MW	9,408 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	9,212 MW	9,627 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	9,519 MW	10,145 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	9,925 MW	10,553 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	10,092 MW	10,710 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	10,152 MW	10,744 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	10,142 MW	10,714 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	10,042 MW	10,718 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	9,964 MW	10,646 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	9,974 MW	10,580 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	9,937 MW	10,551 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	9,889 MW	10,598 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	10,138 MW	10,715 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	10,191 MW	10,748 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	10,335 MW	10,747 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	10,305 MW	10,806 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	10,153 MW	10,766 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	9,964 MW	10,379 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	9,963 MW	10,335 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	9,994 MW	10,211 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	10,018 MW	9,995 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	9,993 MW	9,517 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	10,012 MW	9,522 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	10,143 MW	9,564 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	10,126 MW	9,622 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	10,299 MW	9,861 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	10,736 MW	10,391 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	10,987 MW	10,851 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	10,895 MW	10,985 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	10,809 MW	11,013 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	10,821 MW	11,018 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	10,858 MW	10,908 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	10,811 MW	10,881 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	10,927 MW	10,892 MW
12 Nov, 14:00	11,138 MW	10,875 MW
12 Nov, 15:00	11,253 MW	11,037 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fi_2026,
  title = {{Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

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Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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