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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bulgaria was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 677 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,272 MW (32.7%) too high at 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Sofia).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Bulgaria was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 677 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,272 MW (32.7%) too high at 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Bulgaria came 29 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 167 MW, against average demand of 4,446 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

677 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.8%
Bias+0.6%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss1,272 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,272 MW (32.7%) too high at 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00): forecast 5,158 MW, reported 3,886 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Bulgaria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bulgaria over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 5 Nov, 11:006 Nov, 11:007 Nov, 11:008 Nov, 11:009 Nov, 11:0010 Nov, 11:0011 Nov, 11:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bulgaria over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 11:005,181 MW5,239 MW
5 Nov, 12:005,112 MW5,147 MW
5 Nov, 13:005,037 MW5,116 MW
5 Nov, 14:004,947 MW5,033 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,977 MW5,041 MW
5 Nov, 16:005,121 MW5,071 MW
5 Nov, 17:005,452 MW5,277 MW
5 Nov, 18:005,691 MW5,457 MW
5 Nov, 19:005,645 MW5,418 MW
5 Nov, 20:005,444 MW5,264 MW
5 Nov, 21:005,153 MW4,986 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,899 MW4,719 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,619 MW4,423 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,367 MW4,149 MW
6 Nov, 01:004,127 MW4,066 MW
6 Nov, 02:004,030 MW4,042 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,918 MW4,034 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,961 MW4,050 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,132 MW4,159 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,519 MW4,566 MW
6 Nov, 07:004,912 MW4,960 MW
6 Nov, 08:005,202 MW5,304 MW
6 Nov, 09:005,177 MW5,469 MW
6 Nov, 10:004,970 MW5,438 MW
6 Nov, 11:004,908 MW5,433 MW
6 Nov, 12:004,724 MW5,351 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,743 MW5,345 MW
6 Nov, 14:004,679 MW5,274 MW
6 Nov, 15:004,732 MW5,276 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,897 MW5,306 MW
6 Nov, 17:005,290 MW5,477 MW
6 Nov, 18:005,624 MW5,652 MW
6 Nov, 19:005,566 MW5,603 MW
6 Nov, 20:005,298 MW5,393 MW
6 Nov, 21:005,059 MW5,096 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,837 MW4,817 MW
6 Nov, 23:004,590 MW4,497 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,324 MW4,191 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,077 MW4,109 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,954 MW4,068 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,902 MW4,055 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,937 MW4,087 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,012 MW4,116 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,172 MW4,161 MW
7 Nov, 07:004,457 MW4,361 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,794 MW4,670 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,945 MW4,895 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,956 MW4,989 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,927 MW5,045 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,860 MW4,990 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,737 MW4,901 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,585 MW4,828 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,601 MW4,763 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,832 MW4,880 MW
7 Nov, 17:005,299 MW5,285 MW
7 Nov, 18:005,495 MW5,433 MW
7 Nov, 19:005,361 MW5,283 MW
7 Nov, 20:005,132 MW5,088 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,895 MW4,872 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,713 MW4,719 MW
7 Nov, 23:004,548 MW4,547 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,325 MW4,410 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,131 MW4,141 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,033 MW3,945 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,989 MW3,922 MW
8 Nov, 04:004,005 MW3,928 MW
8 Nov, 05:004,083 MW3,965 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,244 MW4,023 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,492 MW4,180 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,807 MW4,452 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,937 MW4,703 MW
8 Nov, 10:004,977 MW4,876 MW
8 Nov, 11:004,885 MW4,978 MW
8 Nov, 12:004,783 MW5,022 MW
8 Nov, 13:004,665 MW5,016 MW
8 Nov, 14:004,567 MW5,010 MW
8 Nov, 15:004,614 MW5,006 MW
8 Nov, 16:004,927 MW5,063 MW
8 Nov, 17:005,454 MW5,471 MW
8 Nov, 18:005,708 MW5,726 MW
8 Nov, 19:005,608 MW5,615 MW
8 Nov, 20:005,414 MW5,395 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,141 MW5,169 MW
8 Nov, 22:004,886 MW4,956 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,656 MW4,733 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,339 MW4,293 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,185 MW4,088 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,187 MW4,002 MW
9 Nov, 03:004,098 MW3,957 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,119 MW3,937 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,307 MW4,049 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,791 MW4,357 MW
9 Nov, 07:005,142 MW4,687 MW
9 Nov, 08:005,441 MW5,071 MW
9 Nov, 09:005,553 MW5,243 MW
9 Nov, 10:005,494 MW5,270 MW
9 Nov, 11:005,420 MW5,288 MW
9 Nov, 12:005,328 MW5,187 MW
9 Nov, 13:005,326 MW5,179 MW
9 Nov, 14:005,283 MW5,078 MW
9 Nov, 15:005,338 MW5,041 MW
9 Nov, 16:005,422 MW5,136 MW
9 Nov, 17:005,666 MW5,407 MW
9 Nov, 18:005,855 MW5,637 MW
9 Nov, 19:005,831 MW5,597 MW
9 Nov, 20:005,627 MW5,376 MW
9 Nov, 21:005,304 MW5,091 MW
9 Nov, 22:005,020 MW4,813 MW
9 Nov, 23:004,665 MW4,526 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,447 MW4,317 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,158 MW4,240 MW
10 Nov, 02:004,080 MW4,206 MW
10 Nov, 03:004,049 MW4,187 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,096 MW4,217 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,277 MW4,317 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,716 MW4,646 MW
10 Nov, 07:005,102 MW4,974 MW
10 Nov, 08:005,387 MW5,273 MW
10 Nov, 09:005,437 MW5,405 MW
10 Nov, 10:005,321 MW5,318 MW
10 Nov, 11:005,210 MW5,285 MW
10 Nov, 12:005,035 MW5,094 MW
10 Nov, 13:004,920 MW5,033 MW
10 Nov, 14:004,875 MW4,869 MW
10 Nov, 15:004,962 MW4,885 MW
10 Nov, 16:005,134 MW4,997 MW
10 Nov, 17:005,482 MW5,384 MW
10 Nov, 18:005,733 MW5,713 MW
10 Nov, 19:005,702 MW5,652 MW
10 Nov, 20:005,492 MW5,426 MW
10 Nov, 21:005,187 MW5,148 MW
10 Nov, 22:004,964 MW4,900 MW
10 Nov, 23:004,652 MW4,606 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,396 MW4,180 MW
11 Nov, 01:004,211 MW4,150 MW
11 Nov, 02:004,112 MW4,136 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,063 MW4,127 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,012 MW4,164 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,123 MW4,288 MW
11 Nov, 06:004,529 MW4,691 MW
11 Nov, 07:004,898 MW5,114 MW
11 Nov, 08:005,157 MW5,477 MW
11 Nov, 09:005,209 MW5,628 MW
11 Nov, 10:005,169 MW5,543 MW
11 Nov, 11:005,045 MW5,505 MW
11 Nov, 12:004,909 MW5,355 MW
11 Nov, 13:004,891 MW5,323 MW
11 Nov, 14:004,825 MW5,209 MW
11 Nov, 15:004,856 MW5,223 MW
11 Nov, 16:004,958 MW5,293 MW
11 Nov, 17:005,288 MW5,505 MW
11 Nov, 18:005,522 MW5,682 MW
11 Nov, 19:005,507 MW5,622 MW
11 Nov, 20:005,305 MW5,380 MW
11 Nov, 21:004,996 MW5,082 MW
11 Nov, 22:004,775 MW4,809 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,450 MW4,479 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,091 MW4,236 MW
12 Nov, 01:003,870 MW4,008 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,816 MW3,912 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,794 MW3,851 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,798 MW3,887 MW
12 Nov, 05:003,864 MW4,009 MW
12 Nov, 06:004,221 MW4,380 MW
12 Nov, 07:004,467 MW4,757 MW
12 Nov, 08:004,359 MW5,065 MW
12 Nov, 09:004,137 MW5,211 MW
12 Nov, 10:003,886 MW5,158 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (677 of 683 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bg_2026,
  title = {{Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/}
}

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