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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 349 MW (7.6%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 349 MW (7.6%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-West (NO2) came 14 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 113 MW, against average demand of 4,421 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 16% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-2.1%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss349 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-96 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 349 MW (7.6%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 4,225 MW, reported 4,575 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway South-West (NO2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:004,701 MW4,573 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,806 MW4,635 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,950 MW4,766 MW
5 Nov, 17:005,025 MW4,825 MW
5 Nov, 18:005,026 MW4,862 MW
5 Nov, 19:005,036 MW4,834 MW
5 Nov, 20:005,018 MW4,779 MW
5 Nov, 21:004,979 MW4,706 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,887 MW4,634 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,738 MW4,509 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,634 MW4,508 MW
6 Nov, 01:004,569 MW4,438 MW
6 Nov, 02:004,514 MW4,419 MW
6 Nov, 03:004,479 MW4,400 MW
6 Nov, 04:004,472 MW4,382 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,543 MW4,472 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,822 MW4,742 MW
6 Nov, 07:005,134 MW4,981 MW
6 Nov, 08:005,156 MW5,075 MW
6 Nov, 09:005,067 MW4,999 MW
6 Nov, 10:004,989 MW4,896 MW
6 Nov, 11:004,886 MW4,804 MW
6 Nov, 12:004,827 MW4,723 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,782 MW4,688 MW
6 Nov, 14:004,689 MW4,690 MW
6 Nov, 15:004,726 MW4,729 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,849 MW4,814 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,944 MW4,903 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,926 MW4,930 MW
6 Nov, 19:004,892 MW4,901 MW
6 Nov, 20:004,798 MW4,847 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,712 MW4,752 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,629 MW4,683 MW
6 Nov, 23:004,553 MW4,570 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,453 MW4,524 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,370 MW4,452 MW
7 Nov, 02:004,307 MW4,431 MW
7 Nov, 03:004,269 MW4,404 MW
7 Nov, 04:004,253 MW4,371 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,270 MW4,382 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,338 MW4,485 MW
7 Nov, 07:004,456 MW4,609 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,569 MW4,663 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,668 MW4,684 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,686 MW4,662 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,649 MW4,604 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,593 MW4,528 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,564 MW4,497 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,567 MW4,501 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,613 MW4,557 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,710 MW4,648 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,817 MW4,767 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,811 MW4,817 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,769 MW4,803 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,691 MW4,735 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,615 MW4,638 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,531 MW4,571 MW
7 Nov, 23:004,468 MW4,491 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,402 MW4,362 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,343 MW4,302 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,310 MW4,266 MW
8 Nov, 03:004,293 MW4,231 MW
8 Nov, 04:004,278 MW4,185 MW
8 Nov, 05:004,282 MW4,179 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,331 MW4,264 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,423 MW4,368 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,523 MW4,445 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,647 MW4,491 MW
8 Nov, 10:004,746 MW4,512 MW
8 Nov, 11:004,781 MW4,491 MW
8 Nov, 12:004,801 MW4,453 MW
8 Nov, 13:004,814 MW4,469 MW
8 Nov, 14:004,831 MW4,507 MW
8 Nov, 15:004,856 MW4,547 MW
8 Nov, 16:004,890 MW4,645 MW
8 Nov, 17:004,890 MW4,762 MW
8 Nov, 18:004,879 MW4,825 MW
8 Nov, 19:004,875 MW4,807 MW
8 Nov, 20:004,857 MW4,775 MW
8 Nov, 21:004,795 MW4,669 MW
8 Nov, 22:004,707 MW4,580 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,545 MW4,465 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,421 MW4,388 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,398 MW4,363 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,352 MW4,308 MW
9 Nov, 03:004,330 MW4,299 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,334 MW4,305 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,413 MW4,391 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,670 MW4,641 MW
9 Nov, 07:004,954 MW4,891 MW
9 Nov, 08:005,023 MW4,954 MW
9 Nov, 09:005,009 MW4,931 MW
9 Nov, 10:004,996 MW4,857 MW
9 Nov, 11:004,959 MW4,815 MW
9 Nov, 12:004,925 MW4,778 MW
9 Nov, 13:004,925 MW4,744 MW
9 Nov, 14:004,929 MW4,755 MW
9 Nov, 15:004,966 MW4,782 MW
9 Nov, 16:005,076 MW4,844 MW
9 Nov, 17:005,075 MW4,913 MW
9 Nov, 18:005,000 MW4,934 MW
9 Nov, 19:004,977 MW4,896 MW
9 Nov, 20:004,929 MW4,835 MW
9 Nov, 21:004,837 MW4,714 MW
9 Nov, 22:004,727 MW4,588 MW
9 Nov, 23:004,566 MW4,460 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,436 MW4,355 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,349 MW4,290 MW
10 Nov, 02:004,293 MW4,239 MW
10 Nov, 03:004,251 MW4,218 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,229 MW4,227 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,305 MW4,311 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,594 MW4,577 MW
10 Nov, 07:004,886 MW4,842 MW
10 Nov, 08:004,919 MW4,909 MW
10 Nov, 09:004,888 MW4,857 MW
10 Nov, 10:004,623 MW4,797 MW
10 Nov, 11:004,840 MW4,762 MW
10 Nov, 12:004,843 MW4,740 MW
10 Nov, 13:004,870 MW4,743 MW
10 Nov, 14:004,910 MW4,751 MW
10 Nov, 15:004,946 MW4,793 MW
10 Nov, 16:005,076 MW4,837 MW
10 Nov, 17:005,106 MW4,867 MW
10 Nov, 18:005,065 MW4,841 MW
10 Nov, 19:005,021 MW4,808 MW
10 Nov, 20:004,960 MW4,742 MW
10 Nov, 21:004,889 MW4,660 MW
10 Nov, 22:004,783 MW4,545 MW
10 Nov, 23:004,620 MW4,413 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,480 MW4,372 MW
11 Nov, 01:004,385 MW4,297 MW
11 Nov, 02:004,337 MW4,240 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,299 MW4,195 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,294 MW4,213 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,401 MW4,295 MW
11 Nov, 06:004,672 MW4,525 MW
11 Nov, 07:005,009 MW4,797 MW
11 Nov, 08:005,014 MW4,874 MW
11 Nov, 09:004,961 MW4,852 MW
11 Nov, 10:004,642 MW4,823 MW
11 Nov, 11:004,849 MW4,786 MW
11 Nov, 12:004,807 MW4,766 MW
11 Nov, 13:004,809 MW4,745 MW
11 Nov, 14:004,840 MW4,765 MW
11 Nov, 15:004,913 MW4,805 MW
11 Nov, 16:005,016 MW4,877 MW
11 Nov, 17:005,020 MW4,927 MW
11 Nov, 18:005,008 MW4,935 MW
11 Nov, 19:004,988 MW4,919 MW
11 Nov, 20:004,943 MW4,856 MW
11 Nov, 21:004,903 MW4,783 MW
11 Nov, 22:004,831 MW4,672 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,690 MW4,528 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,627 MW4,490 MW
12 Nov, 01:004,574 MW4,410 MW
12 Nov, 02:004,532 MW4,383 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,527 MW4,383 MW
12 Nov, 04:004,536 MW4,378 MW
12 Nov, 05:004,509 MW4,483 MW
12 Nov, 06:004,905 MW4,730 MW
12 Nov, 07:005,197 MW5,021 MW
12 Nov, 08:005,264 MW5,080 MW
12 Nov, 09:005,207 MW5,031 MW
12 Nov, 10:005,159 MW4,963 MW
12 Nov, 11:005,113 MW4,898 MW
12 Nov, 12:005,066 MW4,885 MW
12 Nov, 13:005,025 MW4,866 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no2/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no2/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no2_2026,
  title = {{Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no2/}
}

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