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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 591 MW (11.7%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 591 MW (11.7%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-East (NO1) came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 119 MW, against average demand of 4,224 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 20% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias-2.0%
Hours within 5%88%
Worst miss591 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-91 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 591 MW (11.7%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 4,472 MW, reported 5,063 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway South-East (NO1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:004,562 MW4,490 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,696 MW4,634 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,954 MW4,800 MW
5 Nov, 17:005,086 MW4,929 MW
5 Nov, 18:005,071 MW4,984 MW
5 Nov, 19:005,047 MW4,990 MW
5 Nov, 20:005,007 MW4,938 MW
5 Nov, 21:004,922 MW4,836 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,780 MW4,666 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,578 MW4,417 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,379 MW4,319 MW
6 Nov, 01:004,285 MW4,173 MW
6 Nov, 02:004,196 MW4,094 MW
6 Nov, 03:004,144 MW4,041 MW
6 Nov, 04:004,152 MW4,102 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,302 MW4,275 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,741 MW4,734 MW
6 Nov, 07:005,266 MW5,207 MW
6 Nov, 08:005,407 MW5,355 MW
6 Nov, 09:005,383 MW5,266 MW
6 Nov, 10:005,280 MW5,106 MW
6 Nov, 11:005,161 MW4,947 MW
6 Nov, 12:005,076 MW4,812 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,984 MW4,773 MW
6 Nov, 14:004,990 MW4,814 MW
6 Nov, 15:005,080 MW4,933 MW
6 Nov, 16:005,327 MW5,092 MW
6 Nov, 17:005,389 MW5,198 MW
6 Nov, 18:005,325 MW5,199 MW
6 Nov, 19:005,209 MW5,093 MW
6 Nov, 20:005,053 MW4,984 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,891 MW4,864 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,724 MW4,682 MW
6 Nov, 23:004,602 MW4,469 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,453 MW4,289 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,327 MW4,167 MW
7 Nov, 02:004,263 MW4,092 MW
7 Nov, 03:004,175 MW4,039 MW
7 Nov, 04:004,157 MW4,005 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,145 MW4,019 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,237 MW4,193 MW
7 Nov, 07:004,415 MW4,437 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,621 MW4,574 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,831 MW4,686 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,914 MW4,688 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,915 MW4,642 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,881 MW4,580 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,841 MW4,545 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,852 MW4,608 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,930 MW4,689 MW
7 Nov, 16:005,102 MW4,842 MW
7 Nov, 17:005,182 MW4,951 MW
7 Nov, 18:005,146 MW4,950 MW
7 Nov, 19:005,047 MW4,920 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,908 MW4,781 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,802 MW4,669 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,686 MW4,513 MW
7 Nov, 23:004,558 MW4,341 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,416 MW4,354 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,335 MW4,223 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,272 MW4,146 MW
8 Nov, 03:004,246 MW4,089 MW
8 Nov, 04:004,218 MW4,036 MW
8 Nov, 05:004,241 MW4,015 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,321 MW4,135 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,444 MW4,327 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,619 MW4,409 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,828 MW4,520 MW
8 Nov, 10:004,960 MW4,528 MW
8 Nov, 11:005,032 MW4,505 MW
8 Nov, 12:005,054 MW4,480 MW
8 Nov, 13:005,063 MW4,472 MW
8 Nov, 14:005,052 MW4,520 MW
8 Nov, 15:005,118 MW4,625 MW
8 Nov, 16:005,235 MW4,766 MW
8 Nov, 17:005,256 MW4,873 MW
8 Nov, 18:005,214 MW4,906 MW
8 Nov, 19:005,167 MW4,885 MW
8 Nov, 20:005,116 MW4,814 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,009 MW4,739 MW
8 Nov, 22:004,854 MW4,565 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,668 MW4,351 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,465 MW4,390 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,325 MW4,225 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,246 MW4,157 MW
9 Nov, 03:004,195 MW4,115 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,201 MW4,168 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,354 MW4,304 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,770 MW4,720 MW
9 Nov, 07:005,230 MW5,109 MW
9 Nov, 08:005,350 MW5,214 MW
9 Nov, 09:005,389 MW5,177 MW
9 Nov, 10:005,347 MW5,070 MW
9 Nov, 11:005,315 MW4,966 MW
9 Nov, 12:005,294 MW4,922 MW
9 Nov, 13:005,303 MW4,912 MW
9 Nov, 14:005,304 MW4,971 MW
9 Nov, 15:005,355 MW5,067 MW
9 Nov, 16:005,530 MW5,158 MW
9 Nov, 17:005,516 MW5,189 MW
9 Nov, 18:005,444 MW5,169 MW
9 Nov, 19:005,365 MW5,087 MW
9 Nov, 20:005,305 MW4,964 MW
9 Nov, 21:005,194 MW4,838 MW
9 Nov, 22:005,046 MW4,604 MW
9 Nov, 23:004,793 MW4,373 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,524 MW4,267 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,388 MW4,121 MW
10 Nov, 02:004,277 MW4,036 MW
10 Nov, 03:004,215 MW3,963 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,216 MW4,010 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,365 MW4,163 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,817 MW4,611 MW
10 Nov, 07:005,309 MW5,091 MW
10 Nov, 08:005,407 MW5,240 MW
10 Nov, 09:005,435 MW5,229 MW
10 Nov, 10:005,399 MW5,191 MW
10 Nov, 11:005,375 MW5,136 MW
10 Nov, 12:005,378 MW5,126 MW
10 Nov, 13:005,366 MW5,166 MW
10 Nov, 14:005,388 MW5,246 MW
10 Nov, 15:005,488 MW5,343 MW
10 Nov, 16:005,682 MW5,445 MW
10 Nov, 17:005,691 MW5,467 MW
10 Nov, 18:005,609 MW5,410 MW
10 Nov, 19:005,529 MW5,276 MW
10 Nov, 20:005,413 MW5,144 MW
10 Nov, 21:005,302 MW5,000 MW
10 Nov, 22:005,125 MW4,790 MW
10 Nov, 23:004,852 MW4,562 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,615 MW4,472 MW
11 Nov, 01:004,452 MW4,307 MW
11 Nov, 02:004,350 MW4,251 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,299 MW4,193 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,282 MW4,183 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,403 MW4,351 MW
11 Nov, 06:004,818 MW4,767 MW
11 Nov, 07:005,284 MW5,224 MW
11 Nov, 08:005,367 MW5,381 MW
11 Nov, 09:005,380 MW5,365 MW
11 Nov, 10:005,336 MW5,335 MW
11 Nov, 11:005,294 MW5,310 MW
11 Nov, 12:005,287 MW5,271 MW
11 Nov, 13:005,287 MW5,245 MW
11 Nov, 14:005,298 MW5,276 MW
11 Nov, 15:005,407 MW5,338 MW
11 Nov, 16:005,576 MW5,454 MW
11 Nov, 17:005,556 MW5,466 MW
11 Nov, 18:005,483 MW5,418 MW
11 Nov, 19:005,410 MW5,319 MW
11 Nov, 20:005,309 MW5,205 MW
11 Nov, 21:005,184 MW5,102 MW
11 Nov, 22:004,970 MW4,904 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,705 MW4,647 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,456 MW4,504 MW
12 Nov, 01:004,316 MW4,327 MW
12 Nov, 02:004,230 MW4,244 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,200 MW4,205 MW
12 Nov, 04:004,213 MW4,213 MW
12 Nov, 05:004,391 MW4,372 MW
12 Nov, 06:004,835 MW4,795 MW
12 Nov, 07:005,305 MW5,234 MW
12 Nov, 08:005,421 MW5,386 MW
12 Nov, 09:005,451 MW5,359 MW
12 Nov, 10:005,451 MW5,293 MW
12 Nov, 11:005,392 MW5,304 MW
12 Nov, 12:005,394 MW5,289 MW
12 Nov, 13:005,376 MW5,285 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no1_2026,
  title = {{Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/}
}

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