BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BHBA was off by 9.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 7% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 276 MW (34.5%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 02:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for BHBA was off by 9.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 7% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 276 MW (34.5%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 02:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BHBA came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 86 MW, against average demand of 912 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error9.4%

Bias-9.4%

Hours within 5%7%

Worst miss276 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-86 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 276 MW (34.5%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 02:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 523 MW, reported 799 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BHBA over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:00	959 MW	879 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	981 MW	889 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	981 MW	889 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	964 MW	883 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	960 MW	880 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	957 MW	885 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	954 MW	881 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	933 MW	874 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	932 MW	871 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	952 MW	868 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	963 MW	867 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	981 MW	888 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	958 MW	872 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	961 MW	873 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	963 MW	871 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	946 MW	856 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	922 MW	838 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	897 MW	819 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	890 MW	813 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	885 MW	809 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	874 MW	808 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	879 MW	814 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	893 MW	827 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	923 MW	849 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	941 MW	877 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	966 MW	893 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	975 MW	895 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	975 MW	889 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	960 MW	880 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	962 MW	881 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	945 MW	877 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	944 MW	870 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	947 MW	863 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	951 MW	862 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	961 MW	861 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	962 MW	884 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	926 MW	867 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	919 MW	870 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	928 MW	868 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	913 MW	857 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	895 MW	839 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	877 MW	821 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	862 MW	805 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	860 MW	799 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	861 MW	798 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	865 MW	804 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	873 MW	813 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	886 MW	833 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	885 MW	859 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	901 MW	880 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	915 MW	885 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	914 MW	882 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	904 MW	880 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	902 MW	885 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	897 MW	878 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	886 MW	867 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	889 MW	862 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	898 MW	859 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	920 MW	855 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	951 MW	869 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	931 MW	850 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	926 MW	850 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	927 MW	852 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	918 MW	841 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	904 MW	829 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	892 MW	818 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	877 MW	807 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	869 MW	801 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	866 MW	797 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	869 MW	802 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	876 MW	805 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	885 MW	811 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	885 MW	821 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	887 MW	843 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	898 MW	852 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	903 MW	851 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	899 MW	851 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	895 MW	858 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	896 MW	850 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	890 MW	840 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	884 MW	835 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	903 MW	837 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	921 MW	836 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	944 MW	855 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	919 MW	838 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	923 MW	840 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	926 MW	840 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	896 MW	830 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	864 MW	818 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	847 MW	801 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	843 MW	794 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	842 MW	791 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	835 MW	786 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	841 MW	791 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	858 MW	795 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	891 MW	801 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	924 MW	804 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	943 MW	823 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	948 MW	834 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	942 MW	834 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	943 MW	836 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	959 MW	836 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	950 MW	829 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	945 MW	819 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	925 MW	817 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	933 MW	822 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	958 MW	841 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	980 MW	865 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	952 MW	844 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	946 MW	845 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	948 MW	839 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	937 MW	827 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	915 MW	810 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	893 MW	785 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	884 MW	773 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	885 MW	769 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	881 MW	766 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	883 MW	774 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	893 MW	784 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	925 MW	805 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	956 MW	834 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	983 MW	862 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	986 MW	872 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	969 MW	871 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	966 MW	870 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	962 MW	879 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	955 MW	875 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	950 MW	866 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	943 MW	864 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	945 MW	864 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	954 MW	866 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	986 MW	879 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	945 MW	860 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	930 MW	861 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	926 MW	858 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	908 MW	841 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	890 MW	820 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	876 MW	801 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	863 MW	792 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	858 MW	785 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	847 MW	784 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	845 MW	794 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	851 MW	804 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	878 MW	824 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	908 MW	849 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	934 MW	870 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	928 MW	875 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	925 MW	870 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	926 MW	872 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	918 MW	878 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	918 MW	871 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	922 MW	865 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	924 MW	863 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	935 MW	867 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	950 MW	868 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	963 MW	883 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	940 MW	863 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	941 MW	863 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	936 MW	862 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	916 MW	845 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	892 MW	821 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	880 MW	800 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	870 MW	778 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	868 MW	772 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	871 MW	771 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	876 MW	775 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	892 MW	789 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	921 MW	808 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bhba_2026,
  title = {{BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

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BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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