SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SCL was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for SCL was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SCL came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 33 MW, against average demand of 1,058 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 26% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.0%

Bias-2.1%

Hours within 5%84%

Worst miss154 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-23 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 960 MW, reported 1,114 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SCL over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:00	959 MW	969 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	1,086 MW	1,102 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	1,176 MW	1,188 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	1,190 MW	1,198 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	1,190 MW	1,192 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	1,160 MW	1,183 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	1,128 MW	1,167 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	1,124 MW	1,153 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	1,111 MW	1,152 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	1,116 MW	1,150 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	1,134 MW	1,160 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	1,169 MW	1,201 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	1,226 MW	1,247 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,197 MW	1,232 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,168 MW	1,205 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	1,136 MW	1,169 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	1,086 MW	1,122 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	1,021 MW	1,052 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	954 MW	982 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	903 MW	908 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	867 MW	872 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	836 MW	853 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	838 MW	851 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	864 MW	876 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	943 MW	955 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	1,067 MW	1,074 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	1,163 MW	1,159 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	1,217 MW	1,181 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	1,211 MW	1,177 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	1,227 MW	1,165 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	1,249 MW	1,144 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	1,237 MW	1,122 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	1,228 MW	1,118 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	1,212 MW	1,111 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	1,240 MW	1,124 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	1,274 MW	1,160 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	1,288 MW	1,190 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	1,233 MW	1,155 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	1,175 MW	1,119 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	1,151 MW	1,088 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	1,105 MW	1,043 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	1,042 MW	994 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	978 MW	932 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	892 MW	906 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	862 MW	856 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	823 MW	832 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	815 MW	822 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	818 MW	829 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	874 MW	861 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	926 MW	916 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	984 MW	974 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	1,068 MW	1,023 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	1,093 MW	1,048 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	1,105 MW	1,061 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	1,108 MW	1,062 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	1,087 MW	1,054 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	1,075 MW	1,054 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	1,063 MW	1,054 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	1,089 MW	1,062 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	1,121 MW	1,097 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	1,165 MW	1,131 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	1,149 MW	1,120 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	1,115 MW	1,093 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	1,068 MW	1,062 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	958 MW	1,025 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	937 MW	976 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	906 MW	922 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	865 MW	829 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	835 MW	799 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	802 MW	776 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	812 MW	767 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	816 MW	776 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	855 MW	807 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	882 MW	859 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	915 MW	914 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	1,012 MW	974 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	1,017 MW	1,012 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	1,039 MW	1,037 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	1,031 MW	1,050 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	1,055 MW	1,050 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	1,034 MW	1,049 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	1,042 MW	1,058 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	1,060 MW	1,076 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	1,111 MW	1,123 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	1,195 MW	1,188 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	1,202 MW	1,191 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	1,179 MW	1,173 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	1,134 MW	1,142 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	1,099 MW	1,095 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	1,020 MW	1,026 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	966 MW	955 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	875 MW	885 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	847 MW	846 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	820 MW	832 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	836 MW	835 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	873 MW	868 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	976 MW	957 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	1,115 MW	1,086 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	1,232 MW	1,171 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	1,240 MW	1,181 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	1,223 MW	1,172 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	1,203 MW	1,153 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	1,204 MW	1,129 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	1,223 MW	1,102 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	1,201 MW	1,081 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	1,206 MW	1,074 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,213 MW	1,087 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	1,262 MW	1,137 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	1,266 MW	1,184 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	1,235 MW	1,168 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	1,246 MW	1,130 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	1,190 MW	1,102 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	1,145 MW	1,049 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	1,057 MW	979 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	980 MW	910 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	933 MW	897 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	883 MW	857 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	862 MW	837 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	872 MW	836 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	875 MW	864 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	939 MW	947 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	1,097 MW	1,076 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	1,170 MW	1,158 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	1,186 MW	1,173 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	1,182 MW	1,167 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	1,184 MW	1,159 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	1,181 MW	1,145 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	1,180 MW	1,140 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	1,178 MW	1,139 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	1,192 MW	1,139 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	1,206 MW	1,145 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	1,250 MW	1,188 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	1,259 MW	1,229 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	1,238 MW	1,205 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	1,210 MW	1,171 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	1,171 MW	1,126 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	1,118 MW	1,072 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	1,037 MW	995 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	966 MW	926 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	923 MW	882 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	873 MW	842 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	840 MW	818 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	811 MW	816 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	829 MW	836 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	910 MW	909 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	1,028 MW	1,011 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	1,115 MW	1,080 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	1,148 MW	1,106 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	1,158 MW	1,108 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	1,123 MW	1,112 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	1,134 MW	1,118 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	1,130 MW	1,114 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	1,114 MW	1,112 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	1,116 MW	1,123 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	1,123 MW	1,135 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	1,151 MW	1,165 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	1,208 MW	1,213 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	1,166 MW	1,186 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	1,151 MW	1,158 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	1,121 MW	1,119 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	1,071 MW	1,063 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	979 MW	987 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	896 MW	919 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	832 MW	838 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	802 MW	807 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	771 MW	786 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	770 MW	783 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	739 MW	810 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_scl_2026,
  title = {{SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

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SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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