EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for EPE was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 341 MW (64.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for EPE was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 341 MW (64.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, EPE came 22 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 30 MW, against average demand of 917 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 33% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.2%

Bias-1.4%

Hours within 5%78%

Worst miss341 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-14 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 341 MW (64.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 867 MW, reported 526 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for EPE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:00	831 MW	836 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	831 MW	839 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	805 MW	818 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	800 MW	799 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	826 MW	796 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	808 MW	810 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	833 MW	830 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	885 MW	872 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	935 MW	924 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	984 MW	980 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	995 MW	1,022 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	1,026 MW	1,052 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,028 MW	1,043 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,005 MW	1,007 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	974 MW	975 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	930 MW	929 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	861 MW	864 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	793 MW	800 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	763 MW	758 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	732 MW	736 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	729 MW	719 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	726 MW	716 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	738 MW	731 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	777 MW	773 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	836 MW	830 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	842 MW	836 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	819 MW	822 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	807 MW	817 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	819 MW	818 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	823 MW	822 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	843 MW	826 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	870 MW	850 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	913 MW	875 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	932 MW	898 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	937 MW	924 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	973 MW	968 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	970 MW	942 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	958 MW	912 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	940 MW	890 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	914 MW	860 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	866 MW	820 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	804 MW	777 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	767 MW	778 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	745 MW	743 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	728 MW	721 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	714 MW	708 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	717 MW	703 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	729 MW	713 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	751 MW	726 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	766 MW	719 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	802 MW	711 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	834 MW	708 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	861 MW	729 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	870 MW	749 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	865 MW	776 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	874 MW	806 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	847 MW	835 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	852 MW	842 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	923 MW	857 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	950 MW	936 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	938 MW	977 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	915 MW	960 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	902 MW	928 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	868 MW	890 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	833 MW	847 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	786 MW	793 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	765 MW	758 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	723 MW	718 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	700 MW	701 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	692 MW	693 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	692 MW	692 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	703 MW	701 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	711 MW	711 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	718 MW	700 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	728 MW	703 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	734 MW	706 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	734 MW	712 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	721 MW	718 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	747 MW	738 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	762 MW	754 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	790 MW	763 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	825 MW	785 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	865 MW	812 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	928 MW	868 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	942 MW	872 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	934 MW	868 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	914 MW	860 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	883 MW	838 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	829 MW	792 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	768 MW	735 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	733 MW	729 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	703 MW	705 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	692 MW	696 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	691 MW	696 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	713 MW	712 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	760 MW	755 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	821 MW	817 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	849 MW	832 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	835 MW	830 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	832 MW	819 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	852 MW	810 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	873 MW	809 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	887 MW	827 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	908 MW	857 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	890 MW	884 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	897 MW	916 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	950 MW	953 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	1,005 MW	1,001 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	1,015 MW	996 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	1,001 MW	973 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	978 MW	946 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	937 MW	901 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	878 MW	835 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	838 MW	767 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	769 MW	777 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	740 MW	753 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	732 MW	738 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	738 MW	733 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	757 MW	746 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	797 MW	789 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	868 MW	852 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	850 MW	856 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	826 MW	834 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	808 MW	812 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	793 MW	809 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	789 MW	820 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	826 MW	837 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	856 MW	865 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	893 MW	902 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	936 MW	948 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	979 MW	993 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	1,008 MW	1,041 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	1,003 MW	1,064 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	985 MW	1,035 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	973 MW	994 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	928 MW	940 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	867 MW	869 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	813 MW	799 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	778 MW	767 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	754 MW	754 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	732 MW	739 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	723 MW	732 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	753 MW	742 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	791 MW	778 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	825 MW	823 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	821 MW	816 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	585 MW	785 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	792 MW	755 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	800 MW	747 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	801 MW	752 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	823 MW	782 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	851 MW	837 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	900 MW	901 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	950 MW	964 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	1,008 MW	1,008 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	1,030 MW	1,055 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	1,021 MW	1,072 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	1,001 MW	1,036 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	971 MW	996 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	923 MW	945 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	870 MW	876 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	793 MW	810 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	764 MW	766 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	740 MW	721 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	723 MW	707 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	735 MW	705 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	757 MW	722 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	806 MW	765 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_epe_2026,
  title = {{EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/

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EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related