Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-12
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FPC was off by 24.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,005 MW (30.8%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FPC was off by 24.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,005 MW (30.8%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FPC came 49 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,511 MW, against average demand of 6,149 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error24.3%
Bias-24.3%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss3,005 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,511 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 3,005 MW (30.8%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 6,756 MW, reported 9,761 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
FPC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:006,020 MW4,616 MW
5 Nov, 09:006,436 MW4,828 MW
5 Nov, 10:006,994 MW5,124 MW
5 Nov, 11:007,619 MW5,474 MW
5 Nov, 12:008,128 MW5,861 MW
5 Nov, 13:008,351 MW6,243 MW
5 Nov, 14:008,663 MW6,553 MW
5 Nov, 15:008,891 MW6,760 MW
5 Nov, 16:008,901 MW6,823 MW
5 Nov, 17:008,612 MW6,780 MW
5 Nov, 18:008,372 MW6,610 MW
5 Nov, 19:007,912 MW6,344 MW
5 Nov, 20:007,437 MW5,966 MW
5 Nov, 21:006,973 MW5,548 MW
5 Nov, 22:006,487 MW5,075 MW
5 Nov, 23:005,952 MW4,643 MW
6 Nov, 00:005,492 MW4,336 MW
6 Nov, 01:005,106 MW4,041 MW
6 Nov, 02:004,881 MW3,821 MW
6 Nov, 03:004,726 MW3,706 MW
6 Nov, 04:004,718 MW3,711 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,922 MW3,902 MW
6 Nov, 06:005,321 MW4,200 MW
6 Nov, 07:005,599 MW4,447 MW
6 Nov, 08:005,999 MW4,648 MW
6 Nov, 09:006,461 MW4,883 MW
6 Nov, 10:007,006 MW5,172 MW
6 Nov, 11:007,500 MW5,522 MW
6 Nov, 12:008,097 MW5,901 MW
6 Nov, 13:008,549 MW6,265 MW
6 Nov, 14:008,873 MW6,551 MW
6 Nov, 15:009,033 MW6,728 MW
6 Nov, 16:008,944 MW6,768 MW
6 Nov, 17:008,566 MW6,684 MW
6 Nov, 18:008,279 MW6,468 MW
6 Nov, 19:007,783 MW6,146 MW
6 Nov, 20:007,455 MW5,760 MW
6 Nov, 21:007,013 MW5,388 MW
6 Nov, 22:006,479 MW4,992 MW
6 Nov, 23:005,965 MW4,647 MW
7 Nov, 00:005,490 MW4,334 MW
7 Nov, 01:005,098 MW4,033 MW
7 Nov, 02:004,829 MW3,789 MW
7 Nov, 03:004,588 MW3,637 MW
7 Nov, 04:004,544 MW3,568 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,580 MW3,578 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,740 MW3,661 MW
7 Nov, 07:005,014 MW3,841 MW
7 Nov, 08:005,467 MW4,130 MW
7 Nov, 09:005,921 MW4,447 MW
7 Nov, 10:006,328 MW4,732 MW
7 Nov, 11:006,717 MW5,008 MW
7 Nov, 12:007,138 MW5,275 MW
7 Nov, 13:007,533 MW5,519 MW
7 Nov, 14:007,838 MW5,723 MW
7 Nov, 15:007,983 MW5,833 MW
7 Nov, 16:007,868 MW5,830 MW
7 Nov, 17:007,461 MW5,752 MW
7 Nov, 18:007,143 MW5,530 MW
7 Nov, 19:006,662 MW5,238 MW
7 Nov, 20:006,266 MW4,889 MW
7 Nov, 21:005,911 MW4,576 MW
7 Nov, 22:005,442 MW4,249 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,026 MW3,939 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,594 MW3,697 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,262 MW3,434 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,051 MW3,238 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,908 MW3,121 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,853 MW3,077 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,915 MW3,113 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,090 MW3,212 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,393 MW3,392 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,808 MW3,646 MW
8 Nov, 09:005,175 MW3,908 MW
8 Nov, 10:005,462 MW4,141 MW
8 Nov, 11:005,883 MW4,406 MW
8 Nov, 12:006,372 MW4,698 MW
8 Nov, 13:006,833 MW4,991 MW
8 Nov, 14:007,230 MW5,248 MW
8 Nov, 15:007,476 MW5,409 MW
8 Nov, 16:007,565 MW5,496 MW
8 Nov, 17:007,370 MW5,531 MW
8 Nov, 18:007,166 MW5,435 MW
8 Nov, 19:006,733 MW5,255 MW
8 Nov, 20:006,326 MW4,934 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,893 MW4,610 MW
8 Nov, 22:005,316 MW4,239 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,827 MW3,868 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,452 MW3,498 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,154 MW3,261 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,987 MW3,108 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,932 MW3,045 MW
9 Nov, 04:003,982 MW3,108 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,260 MW3,351 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,782 MW3,703 MW
9 Nov, 07:005,047 MW3,956 MW
9 Nov, 08:005,230 MW4,088 MW
9 Nov, 09:005,438 MW4,190 MW
9 Nov, 10:005,690 MW4,340 MW
9 Nov, 11:006,076 MW4,560 MW
9 Nov, 12:006,595 MW4,823 MW
9 Nov, 13:007,040 MW5,087 MW
9 Nov, 14:007,370 MW5,339 MW
9 Nov, 15:007,638 MW5,530 MW
9 Nov, 16:007,748 MW5,626 MW
9 Nov, 17:007,611 MW5,665 MW
9 Nov, 18:007,514 MW5,618 MW
9 Nov, 19:007,089 MW5,426 MW
9 Nov, 20:006,631 MW5,114 MW
9 Nov, 21:006,129 MW4,757 MW
9 Nov, 22:005,528 MW4,340 MW
9 Nov, 23:004,989 MW3,960 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,602 MW3,561 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,258 MW3,314 MW
10 Nov, 02:004,074 MW3,154 MW
10 Nov, 03:003,988 MW3,079 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,053 MW3,127 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,337 MW3,354 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,849 MW3,693 MW
10 Nov, 07:005,131 MW3,947 MW
10 Nov, 08:005,282 MW4,092 MW
10 Nov, 09:005,418 MW4,210 MW
10 Nov, 10:005,649 MW4,371 MW
10 Nov, 11:006,069 MW4,601 MW
10 Nov, 12:006,636 MW4,891 MW
10 Nov, 13:007,148 MW5,173 MW
10 Nov, 14:007,460 MW5,426 MW
10 Nov, 15:007,590 MW5,625 MW
10 Nov, 16:007,602 MW5,754 MW
10 Nov, 17:007,671 MW5,820 MW
10 Nov, 18:007,683 MW5,784 MW
10 Nov, 19:007,316 MW5,610 MW
10 Nov, 20:006,942 MW5,317 MW
10 Nov, 21:006,487 MW4,970 MW
10 Nov, 22:005,946 MW4,545 MW
10 Nov, 23:005,445 MW4,159 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,880 MW3,813 MW
11 Nov, 01:004,549 MW3,561 MW
11 Nov, 02:004,351 MW3,383 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,234 MW3,292 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,259 MW3,286 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,484 MW3,423 MW
11 Nov, 06:004,896 MW3,682 MW
11 Nov, 07:005,170 MW3,958 MW
11 Nov, 08:005,478 MW4,191 MW
11 Nov, 09:005,844 MW4,414 MW
11 Nov, 10:006,199 MW4,650 MW
11 Nov, 11:006,638 MW4,937 MW
11 Nov, 12:007,056 MW5,221 MW
11 Nov, 13:007,214 MW5,427 MW
11 Nov, 14:007,313 MW5,539 MW
11 Nov, 15:007,365 MW5,592 MW
11 Nov, 16:007,409 MW5,586 MW
11 Nov, 17:007,201 MW5,553 MW
11 Nov, 18:007,151 MW5,485 MW
11 Nov, 19:006,727 MW5,277 MW
11 Nov, 20:006,350 MW5,003 MW
11 Nov, 21:005,936 MW4,681 MW
11 Nov, 22:005,444 MW4,285 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,950 MW3,931 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,459 MW3,375 MW
12 Nov, 01:004,167 MW3,163 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,965 MW3,018 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,875 MW2,950 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,896 MW3,003 MW
12 Nov, 05:004,159 MW3,218 MW
12 Nov, 06:004,667 MW3,552 MW
12 Nov, 07:004,968 MW3,805 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fpc_2026,
  title = {{FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.