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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,146 MW (20.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,146 MW (20.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLE came 30 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 229 MW, against average demand of 5,935 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 61% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error4.0%
Bias+2.2%
Hours within 5%71%
Worst miss1,146 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+114 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,146 MW (20.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 6,850 MW, reported 5,704 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
CPLE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:006,142 MW6,118 MW
5 Nov, 09:006,348 MW6,272 MW
5 Nov, 10:006,637 MW6,519 MW
5 Nov, 11:006,894 MW6,803 MW
5 Nov, 12:007,124 MW7,047 MW
5 Nov, 13:007,346 MW7,248 MW
5 Nov, 14:007,436 MW7,353 MW
5 Nov, 15:007,459 MW7,466 MW
5 Nov, 16:007,501 MW7,604 MW
5 Nov, 17:007,641 MW7,715 MW
5 Nov, 18:007,699 MW7,610 MW
5 Nov, 19:007,503 MW7,337 MW
5 Nov, 20:007,260 MW6,928 MW
5 Nov, 21:006,884 MW6,507 MW
5 Nov, 22:006,402 MW6,015 MW
5 Nov, 23:005,909 MW5,583 MW
6 Nov, 00:005,540 MW5,380 MW
6 Nov, 01:005,304 MW5,153 MW
6 Nov, 02:005,128 MW4,974 MW
6 Nov, 03:005,042 MW4,894 MW
6 Nov, 04:005,109 MW4,979 MW
6 Nov, 05:005,412 MW5,319 MW
6 Nov, 06:005,920 MW5,800 MW
6 Nov, 07:006,216 MW6,072 MW
6 Nov, 08:006,427 MW6,197 MW
6 Nov, 09:006,633 MW6,336 MW
6 Nov, 10:006,714 MW6,525 MW
6 Nov, 11:006,704 MW6,637 MW
6 Nov, 12:006,630 MW6,713 MW
6 Nov, 13:006,521 MW6,720 MW
6 Nov, 14:006,428 MW6,682 MW
6 Nov, 15:006,417 MW6,585 MW
6 Nov, 16:006,494 MW6,602 MW
6 Nov, 17:006,708 MW6,662 MW
6 Nov, 18:006,651 MW6,595 MW
6 Nov, 19:006,479 MW6,318 MW
6 Nov, 20:006,229 MW5,956 MW
6 Nov, 21:005,940 MW5,689 MW
6 Nov, 22:005,635 MW5,422 MW
6 Nov, 23:005,265 MW5,134 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,973 MW4,956 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,757 MW4,817 MW
7 Nov, 02:004,640 MW4,739 MW
7 Nov, 03:004,578 MW4,729 MW
7 Nov, 04:004,594 MW4,836 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,716 MW5,040 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,930 MW5,350 MW
7 Nov, 07:005,154 MW5,615 MW
7 Nov, 08:005,339 MW5,768 MW
7 Nov, 09:005,374 MW5,722 MW
7 Nov, 10:005,378 MW5,623 MW
7 Nov, 11:005,366 MW5,488 MW
7 Nov, 12:005,390 MW5,381 MW
7 Nov, 13:005,404 MW5,309 MW
7 Nov, 14:005,467 MW5,349 MW
7 Nov, 15:005,595 MW5,506 MW
7 Nov, 16:005,800 MW5,836 MW
7 Nov, 17:006,032 MW6,255 MW
7 Nov, 18:006,090 MW6,522 MW
7 Nov, 19:006,020 MW6,552 MW
7 Nov, 20:005,878 MW6,481 MW
7 Nov, 21:005,731 MW6,301 MW
7 Nov, 22:005,494 MW6,098 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,270 MW5,852 MW
8 Nov, 00:005,052 MW5,614 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,933 MW5,491 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,880 MW5,445 MW
8 Nov, 03:004,896 MW5,491 MW
8 Nov, 04:005,009 MW5,616 MW
8 Nov, 05:005,224 MW5,862 MW
8 Nov, 06:005,567 MW6,190 MW
8 Nov, 07:005,879 MW6,450 MW
8 Nov, 08:005,888 MW6,440 MW
8 Nov, 09:005,712 MW6,140 MW
8 Nov, 10:005,481 MW5,782 MW
8 Nov, 11:005,353 MW5,533 MW
8 Nov, 12:005,310 MW5,404 MW
8 Nov, 13:005,304 MW5,310 MW
8 Nov, 14:005,341 MW5,303 MW
8 Nov, 15:005,528 MW5,434 MW
8 Nov, 16:005,853 MW5,790 MW
8 Nov, 17:006,259 MW6,231 MW
8 Nov, 18:006,441 MW6,555 MW
8 Nov, 19:006,389 MW6,698 MW
8 Nov, 20:006,244 MW6,638 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,998 MW6,434 MW
8 Nov, 22:005,645 MW6,166 MW
8 Nov, 23:005,372 MW5,832 MW
9 Nov, 00:005,146 MW5,619 MW
9 Nov, 01:005,053 MW5,509 MW
9 Nov, 02:005,047 MW5,470 MW
9 Nov, 03:005,108 MW5,547 MW
9 Nov, 04:005,310 MW5,790 MW
9 Nov, 05:005,779 MW6,326 MW
9 Nov, 06:006,465 MW6,938 MW
9 Nov, 07:006,558 MW7,109 MW
9 Nov, 08:005,964 MW6,748 MW
9 Nov, 09:005,842 MW6,263 MW
9 Nov, 10:005,990 MW5,936 MW
9 Nov, 11:005,890 MW5,786 MW
9 Nov, 12:005,850 MW5,706 MW
9 Nov, 13:005,882 MW5,687 MW
9 Nov, 14:005,890 MW5,713 MW
9 Nov, 15:006,001 MW5,858 MW
9 Nov, 16:006,219 MW6,179 MW
9 Nov, 17:006,557 MW6,611 MW
9 Nov, 18:006,706 MW6,916 MW
9 Nov, 19:006,608 MW7,001 MW
9 Nov, 20:006,435 MW6,896 MW
9 Nov, 21:006,140 MW6,635 MW
9 Nov, 22:005,806 MW6,304 MW
9 Nov, 23:005,497 MW5,937 MW
10 Nov, 00:005,324 MW5,839 MW
10 Nov, 01:005,272 MW5,740 MW
10 Nov, 02:005,274 MW5,703 MW
10 Nov, 03:005,349 MW5,780 MW
10 Nov, 04:005,568 MW6,020 MW
10 Nov, 05:006,046 MW6,555 MW
10 Nov, 06:006,822 MW7,175 MW
10 Nov, 07:006,949 MW7,339 MW
10 Nov, 08:006,629 MW6,948 MW
10 Nov, 09:006,098 MW6,413 MW
10 Nov, 10:005,903 MW6,053 MW
10 Nov, 11:005,769 MW5,899 MW
10 Nov, 12:005,730 MW5,845 MW
10 Nov, 13:005,758 MW5,852 MW
10 Nov, 14:005,825 MW5,879 MW
10 Nov, 15:006,012 MW5,994 MW
10 Nov, 16:006,230 MW6,219 MW
10 Nov, 17:006,521 MW6,582 MW
10 Nov, 18:006,674 MW6,782 MW
10 Nov, 19:006,532 MW6,777 MW
10 Nov, 20:006,334 MW6,583 MW
10 Nov, 21:006,013 MW6,325 MW
10 Nov, 22:005,727 MW5,970 MW
10 Nov, 23:005,423 MW5,655 MW
11 Nov, 00:005,183 MW5,632 MW
11 Nov, 01:005,088 MW5,528 MW
11 Nov, 02:005,071 MW5,459 MW
11 Nov, 03:005,098 MW5,506 MW
11 Nov, 04:005,262 MW5,659 MW
11 Nov, 05:005,641 MW5,985 MW
11 Nov, 06:006,229 MW6,407 MW
11 Nov, 07:006,355 MW6,603 MW
11 Nov, 08:006,226 MW6,479 MW
11 Nov, 09:006,106 MW6,286 MW
11 Nov, 10:005,947 MW6,142 MW
11 Nov, 11:005,968 MW6,028 MW
11 Nov, 12:005,966 MW5,994 MW
11 Nov, 13:006,001 MW6,020 MW
11 Nov, 14:006,101 MW6,066 MW
11 Nov, 15:006,149 MW6,161 MW
11 Nov, 16:006,251 MW6,356 MW
11 Nov, 17:006,564 MW6,689 MW
11 Nov, 18:006,659 MW6,832 MW
11 Nov, 19:006,528 MW6,767 MW
11 Nov, 20:006,352 MW6,548 MW
11 Nov, 21:006,070 MW6,291 MW
11 Nov, 22:005,675 MW5,944 MW
11 Nov, 23:005,272 MW5,621 MW
12 Nov, 00:005,139 MW5,409 MW
12 Nov, 01:005,018 MW5,238 MW
12 Nov, 02:004,945 MW5,143 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,960 MW5,146 MW
12 Nov, 04:005,094 MW5,305 MW
12 Nov, 05:005,475 MW5,760 MW
12 Nov, 06:006,097 MW6,304 MW
12 Nov, 07:006,286 MW6,492 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cple_2026,
  title = {{CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/}
}

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