Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-12
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PACE was off by 8.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 40% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,629 MW (33.7%) too high at 3 Nov 2026, 18:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PACE was off by 8.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 40% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,629 MW (33.7%) too high at 3 Nov 2026, 18:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PACE came 40 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 439 MW, against average demand of 5,468 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 74% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error8.3%
Bias+6.0%
Hours within 5%40%
Worst miss1,629 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+296 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,629 MW (33.7%) too high at 3 Nov 2026, 18:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 6,466 MW, reported 4,837 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
PACE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:005,259 MW5,864 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,444 MW6,150 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,795 MW6,212 MW
5 Nov, 09:005,845 MW6,248 MW
5 Nov, 10:006,307 MW6,244 MW
5 Nov, 11:006,190 MW6,205 MW
5 Nov, 12:006,106 MW6,160 MW
5 Nov, 13:006,179 MW6,129 MW
5 Nov, 14:006,331 MW6,097 MW
5 Nov, 15:006,116 MW6,082 MW
5 Nov, 16:005,649 MW6,119 MW
5 Nov, 17:005,031 MW6,292 MW
5 Nov, 18:004,990 MW6,336 MW
5 Nov, 19:004,937 MW6,282 MW
5 Nov, 20:005,154 MW6,187 MW
5 Nov, 21:005,347 MW6,037 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,993 MW5,828 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,959 MW5,625 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,982 MW5,533 MW
6 Nov, 01:005,274 MW5,317 MW
6 Nov, 02:005,151 MW5,228 MW
6 Nov, 03:005,133 MW5,209 MW
6 Nov, 04:005,149 MW5,257 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,966 MW5,436 MW
6 Nov, 06:005,097 MW5,737 MW
6 Nov, 07:005,425 MW5,962 MW
6 Nov, 08:006,159 MW6,065 MW
6 Nov, 09:006,042 MW6,079 MW
6 Nov, 10:006,022 MW6,082 MW
6 Nov, 11:006,172 MW6,062 MW
6 Nov, 12:005,814 MW6,043 MW
6 Nov, 13:005,980 MW5,979 MW
6 Nov, 14:005,848 MW5,916 MW
6 Nov, 15:005,819 MW5,927 MW
6 Nov, 16:005,359 MW5,981 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,760 MW6,134 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,729 MW6,178 MW
6 Nov, 19:005,303 MW6,154 MW
6 Nov, 20:005,539 MW6,049 MW
6 Nov, 21:005,197 MW5,925 MW
6 Nov, 22:005,479 MW5,783 MW
6 Nov, 23:005,380 MW5,617 MW
7 Nov, 00:005,173 MW5,486 MW
7 Nov, 01:005,411 MW5,405 MW
7 Nov, 02:005,267 MW5,340 MW
7 Nov, 03:005,166 MW5,319 MW
7 Nov, 04:005,044 MW5,346 MW
7 Nov, 05:005,004 MW5,432 MW
7 Nov, 06:005,144 MW5,550 MW
7 Nov, 07:005,218 MW5,673 MW
7 Nov, 08:005,581 MW5,745 MW
7 Nov, 09:005,961 MW5,765 MW
7 Nov, 10:005,958 MW5,747 MW
7 Nov, 11:005,890 MW5,704 MW
7 Nov, 12:005,727 MW5,637 MW
7 Nov, 13:005,818 MW5,565 MW
7 Nov, 14:005,717 MW5,513 MW
7 Nov, 15:005,568 MW5,533 MW
7 Nov, 16:005,515 MW5,695 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,845 MW5,888 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,856 MW5,983 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,873 MW5,958 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,781 MW5,917 MW
7 Nov, 21:005,454 MW5,838 MW
7 Nov, 22:005,379 MW5,708 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,282 MW5,561 MW
8 Nov, 00:005,163 MW5,411 MW
8 Nov, 01:005,219 MW5,297 MW
8 Nov, 02:005,026 MW5,220 MW
8 Nov, 03:005,092 MW5,203 MW
8 Nov, 04:005,105 MW5,221 MW
8 Nov, 05:005,031 MW5,294 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,956 MW5,401 MW
8 Nov, 07:005,473 MW5,504 MW
8 Nov, 08:005,583 MW5,561 MW
8 Nov, 09:005,666 MW5,582 MW
8 Nov, 10:006,018 MW5,591 MW
8 Nov, 11:006,359 MW5,596 MW
8 Nov, 12:006,416 MW5,589 MW
8 Nov, 13:006,298 MW5,573 MW
8 Nov, 14:006,232 MW5,563 MW
8 Nov, 15:005,974 MW5,611 MW
8 Nov, 16:005,589 MW5,771 MW
8 Nov, 17:004,845 MW5,943 MW
8 Nov, 18:005,058 MW6,021 MW
8 Nov, 19:005,033 MW5,986 MW
8 Nov, 20:004,741 MW5,918 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,131 MW5,782 MW
8 Nov, 22:005,113 MW5,588 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,996 MW5,401 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,746 MW5,268 MW
9 Nov, 01:005,095 MW5,184 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,958 MW5,145 MW
9 Nov, 03:005,272 MW5,166 MW
9 Nov, 04:005,440 MW5,275 MW
9 Nov, 05:005,298 MW5,525 MW
9 Nov, 06:005,331 MW5,868 MW
9 Nov, 07:005,872 MW6,121 MW
9 Nov, 08:006,040 MW6,182 MW
9 Nov, 09:006,504 MW6,147 MW
9 Nov, 10:005,993 MW6,111 MW
9 Nov, 11:005,639 MW6,077 MW
9 Nov, 12:005,712 MW6,026 MW
9 Nov, 13:005,613 MW5,971 MW
9 Nov, 14:005,538 MW5,928 MW
9 Nov, 15:005,680 MW5,939 MW
9 Nov, 16:005,316 MW6,069 MW
9 Nov, 17:005,044 MW6,224 MW
9 Nov, 18:005,158 MW6,286 MW
9 Nov, 19:005,227 MW6,232 MW
9 Nov, 20:005,616 MW6,146 MW
9 Nov, 21:005,441 MW6,000 MW
9 Nov, 22:005,271 MW5,779 MW
9 Nov, 23:005,088 MW5,565 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,974 MW5,404 MW
10 Nov, 01:005,181 MW5,312 MW
10 Nov, 02:005,306 MW5,231 MW
10 Nov, 03:005,260 MW5,236 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,883 MW5,327 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,946 MW5,555 MW
10 Nov, 06:005,474 MW5,869 MW
10 Nov, 07:005,531 MW6,102 MW
10 Nov, 08:006,104 MW6,156 MW
10 Nov, 09:006,233 MW6,103 MW
10 Nov, 10:006,257 MW6,052 MW
10 Nov, 11:006,232 MW6,003 MW
10 Nov, 12:006,125 MW5,959 MW
10 Nov, 13:006,740 MW5,913 MW
10 Nov, 14:006,744 MW5,885 MW
10 Nov, 15:006,702 MW5,903 MW
10 Nov, 16:005,870 MW6,035 MW
10 Nov, 17:005,588 MW6,186 MW
10 Nov, 18:005,171 MW6,248 MW
10 Nov, 19:005,376 MW6,191 MW
10 Nov, 20:005,590 MW6,097 MW
10 Nov, 21:005,631 MW5,947 MW
10 Nov, 22:005,566 MW5,742 MW
10 Nov, 23:005,346 MW5,542 MW
11 Nov, 00:005,164 MW5,402 MW
11 Nov, 01:005,323 MW5,364 MW
11 Nov, 02:005,371 MW5,299 MW
11 Nov, 03:005,292 MW5,309 MW
11 Nov, 04:005,123 MW5,431 MW
11 Nov, 05:005,547 MW5,621 MW
11 Nov, 06:005,635 MW5,975 MW
11 Nov, 07:005,760 MW6,193 MW
11 Nov, 08:005,901 MW6,169 MW
11 Nov, 09:006,077 MW6,110 MW
11 Nov, 10:006,674 MW6,101 MW
11 Nov, 11:006,381 MW6,069 MW
11 Nov, 12:006,314 MW6,055 MW
11 Nov, 13:006,256 MW6,013 MW
11 Nov, 14:006,251 MW6,018 MW
11 Nov, 15:006,077 MW6,023 MW
11 Nov, 16:005,775 MW6,069 MW
11 Nov, 17:005,233 MW6,294 MW
11 Nov, 18:005,334 MW6,328 MW
11 Nov, 19:005,505 MW6,231 MW
11 Nov, 20:005,751 MW6,094 MW
11 Nov, 21:005,630 MW5,955 MW
11 Nov, 22:005,264 MW5,759 MW
11 Nov, 23:005,271 MW5,567 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,824 MW5,452 MW
12 Nov, 01:005,301 MW5,377 MW
12 Nov, 02:005,134 MW5,340 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,983 MW5,340 MW
12 Nov, 04:005,135 MW5,429 MW
12 Nov, 05:005,089 MW5,652 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pace_2026,
  title = {{PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.