Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 576 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 53% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 190 MW (40.4%) too high at 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Nicosia).
This grid has 576 compared hours out of the 688 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 576 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 53% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 190 MW (40.4%) too high at 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Cyprus came 34 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 30 MW, against average demand of 574 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 21% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
576 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-19 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 190 MW (40.4%) too high at 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 659 MW, reported 469 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 16:00 | 661 MW | 637 MW |
| 5 Nov, 17:00 | 704 MW | 675 MW |
| 5 Nov, 18:00 | 705 MW | 677 MW |
| 5 Nov, 19:00 | 690 MW | 660 MW |
| 5 Nov, 20:00 | 650 MW | 622 MW |
| 5 Nov, 21:00 | 597 MW | 573 MW |
| 5 Nov, 22:00 | 539 MW | 514 MW |
| 5 Nov, 23:00 | 487 MW | 464 MW |
| 6 Nov, 00:00 | 450 MW | 423 MW |
| 6 Nov, 01:00 | 427 MW | 400 MW |
| 6 Nov, 02:00 | 413 MW | 388 MW |
| 6 Nov, 03:00 | 408 MW | 384 MW |
| 6 Nov, 04:00 | 415 MW | 393 MW |
| 6 Nov, 05:00 | 457 MW | 434 MW |
| 6 Nov, 06:00 | 526 MW | 505 MW |
| 6 Nov, 07:00 | 600 MW | 589 MW |
| 6 Nov, 08:00 | 648 MW | 648 MW |
| 6 Nov, 09:00 | 661 MW | 666 MW |
| 6 Nov, 10:00 | n/a | 677 MW |
| 6 Nov, 11:00 | n/a | 670 MW |
| 6 Nov, 12:00 | n/a | 679 MW |
| 6 Nov, 13:00 | n/a | 658 MW |
| 6 Nov, 14:00 | n/a | 656 MW |
| 6 Nov, 15:00 | n/a | 633 MW |
| 6 Nov, 16:00 | n/a | 630 MW |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 | n/a | 664 MW |
| 6 Nov, 18:00 | n/a | 668 MW |
| 6 Nov, 19:00 | n/a | 651 MW |
| 6 Nov, 20:00 | n/a | 614 MW |
| 6 Nov, 21:00 | n/a | 566 MW |
| 6 Nov, 22:00 | n/a | 509 MW |
| 6 Nov, 23:00 | n/a | 458 MW |
| 7 Nov, 00:00 | n/a | 422 MW |
| 7 Nov, 01:00 | n/a | 401 MW |
| 7 Nov, 02:00 | n/a | 388 MW |
| 7 Nov, 03:00 | n/a | 380 MW |
| 7 Nov, 04:00 | n/a | 382 MW |
| 7 Nov, 05:00 | n/a | 403 MW |
| 7 Nov, 06:00 | n/a | 436 MW |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 | n/a | 511 MW |
| 7 Nov, 08:00 | n/a | 576 MW |
| 7 Nov, 09:00 | n/a | 612 MW |
| 7 Nov, 10:00 | n/a | 621 MW |
| 7 Nov, 11:00 | n/a | 615 MW |
| 7 Nov, 12:00 | n/a | 615 MW |
| 7 Nov, 13:00 | n/a | 610 MW |
| 7 Nov, 14:00 | n/a | 595 MW |
| 7 Nov, 15:00 | n/a | 583 MW |
| 7 Nov, 16:00 | n/a | 570 MW |
| 7 Nov, 17:00 | n/a | 603 MW |
| 7 Nov, 18:00 | n/a | 606 MW |
| 7 Nov, 19:00 | n/a | 583 MW |
| 7 Nov, 20:00 | n/a | 549 MW |
| 7 Nov, 21:00 | n/a | 514 MW |
| 7 Nov, 22:00 | n/a | 476 MW |
| 7 Nov, 23:00 | n/a | 441 MW |
| 8 Nov, 00:00 | n/a | 447 MW |
| 8 Nov, 01:00 | n/a | 416 MW |
| 8 Nov, 02:00 | n/a | 398 MW |
| 8 Nov, 03:00 | n/a | 388 MW |
| 8 Nov, 04:00 | n/a | 389 MW |
| 8 Nov, 05:00 | n/a | 402 MW |
| 8 Nov, 06:00 | n/a | 422 MW |
| 8 Nov, 07:00 | n/a | 475 MW |
| 8 Nov, 08:00 | n/a | 543 MW |
| 8 Nov, 09:00 | n/a | 580 MW |
| 8 Nov, 10:00 | n/a | 609 MW |
| 8 Nov, 11:00 | n/a | 627 MW |
| 8 Nov, 12:00 | n/a | 635 MW |
| 8 Nov, 13:00 | n/a | 605 MW |
| 8 Nov, 14:00 | n/a | 585 MW |
| 8 Nov, 15:00 | n/a | 580 MW |
| 8 Nov, 16:00 | n/a | 556 MW |
| 8 Nov, 17:00 | n/a | 610 MW |
| 8 Nov, 18:00 | n/a | 626 MW |
| 8 Nov, 19:00 | n/a | 615 MW |
| 8 Nov, 20:00 | n/a | 589 MW |
| 8 Nov, 21:00 | n/a | 552 MW |
| 8 Nov, 22:00 | n/a | 502 MW |
| 8 Nov, 23:00 | n/a | 453 MW |
| 9 Nov, 00:00 | n/a | 432 MW |
| 9 Nov, 01:00 | n/a | 401 MW |
| 9 Nov, 02:00 | n/a | 385 MW |
| 9 Nov, 03:00 | n/a | 379 MW |
| 9 Nov, 04:00 | n/a | 388 MW |
| 9 Nov, 05:00 | n/a | 430 MW |
| 9 Nov, 06:00 | n/a | 509 MW |
| 9 Nov, 07:00 | n/a | 591 MW |
| 9 Nov, 08:00 | n/a | 647 MW |
| 9 Nov, 09:00 | n/a | 679 MW |
| 9 Nov, 10:00 | n/a | 677 MW |
| 9 Nov, 11:00 | n/a | 673 MW |
| 9 Nov, 12:00 | n/a | 665 MW |
| 9 Nov, 13:00 | n/a | 659 MW |
| 9 Nov, 14:00 | n/a | 658 MW |
| 9 Nov, 15:00 | n/a | 646 MW |
| 9 Nov, 16:00 | n/a | 642 MW |
| 9 Nov, 17:00 | n/a | 690 MW |
| 9 Nov, 18:00 | 741 MW | 700 MW |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 | 745 MW | 688 MW |
| 9 Nov, 20:00 | 713 MW | 654 MW |
| 9 Nov, 21:00 | 653 MW | 603 MW |
| 9 Nov, 22:00 | 581 MW | 541 MW |
| 9 Nov, 23:00 | 512 MW | 480 MW |
| 10 Nov, 00:00 | 463 MW | 423 MW |
| 10 Nov, 01:00 | 436 MW | 399 MW |
| 10 Nov, 02:00 | 421 MW | 387 MW |
| 10 Nov, 03:00 | 415 MW | 384 MW |
| 10 Nov, 04:00 | 425 MW | 397 MW |
| 10 Nov, 05:00 | 473 MW | 441 MW |
| 10 Nov, 06:00 | 561 MW | 514 MW |
| 10 Nov, 07:00 | 649 MW | 598 MW |
| 10 Nov, 08:00 | 687 MW | 659 MW |
| 10 Nov, 09:00 | 690 MW | 684 MW |
| 10 Nov, 10:00 | 671 MW | 687 MW |
| 10 Nov, 11:00 | 641 MW | 687 MW |
| 10 Nov, 12:00 | 640 MW | 687 MW |
| 10 Nov, 13:00 | 655 MW | 679 MW |
| 10 Nov, 14:00 | 666 MW | 667 MW |
| 10 Nov, 15:00 | 665 MW | 646 MW |
| 10 Nov, 16:00 | 673 MW | 640 MW |
| 10 Nov, 17:00 | 732 MW | 675 MW |
| 10 Nov, 18:00 | 753 MW | 675 MW |
| 10 Nov, 19:00 | 751 MW | 659 MW |
| 10 Nov, 20:00 | 714 MW | 620 MW |
| 10 Nov, 21:00 | 659 MW | 570 MW |
| 10 Nov, 22:00 | 584 MW | 514 MW |
| 10 Nov, 23:00 | 517 MW | 465 MW |
| 11 Nov, 00:00 | 468 MW | 436 MW |
| 11 Nov, 01:00 | 438 MW | 412 MW |
| 11 Nov, 02:00 | 422 MW | 400 MW |
| 11 Nov, 03:00 | 414 MW | 394 MW |
| 11 Nov, 04:00 | 426 MW | 406 MW |
| 11 Nov, 05:00 | 474 MW | 454 MW |
| 11 Nov, 06:00 | 562 MW | 534 MW |
| 11 Nov, 07:00 | 631 MW | 619 MW |
| 11 Nov, 08:00 | 675 MW | 667 MW |
| 11 Nov, 09:00 | 687 MW | 675 MW |
| 11 Nov, 10:00 | n/a | 676 MW |
| 11 Nov, 11:00 | n/a | 678 MW |
| 11 Nov, 12:00 | n/a | 675 MW |
| 11 Nov, 13:00 | 672 MW | 656 MW |
| 11 Nov, 14:00 | 702 MW | 655 MW |
| 11 Nov, 15:00 | 694 MW | 643 MW |
| 11 Nov, 16:00 | 707 MW | 637 MW |
| 11 Nov, 17:00 | 763 MW | 682 MW |
| 11 Nov, 18:00 | 785 MW | 688 MW |
| 11 Nov, 19:00 | 776 MW | 678 MW |
| 11 Nov, 20:00 | 734 MW | 643 MW |
| 11 Nov, 21:00 | 668 MW | 590 MW |
| 11 Nov, 22:00 | 591 MW | 527 MW |
| 11 Nov, 23:00 | 520 MW | 469 MW |
| 12 Nov, 00:00 | 468 MW | 444 MW |
| 12 Nov, 01:00 | 434 MW | 415 MW |
| 12 Nov, 02:00 | 415 MW | 397 MW |
| 12 Nov, 03:00 | 409 MW | 390 MW |
| 12 Nov, 04:00 | 419 MW | 398 MW |
| 12 Nov, 05:00 | 470 MW | 442 MW |
| 12 Nov, 06:00 | 559 MW | 527 MW |
| 12 Nov, 07:00 | 633 MW | 615 MW |
| 12 Nov, 08:00 | 682 MW | 664 MW |
| 12 Nov, 09:00 | 673 MW | 671 MW |
| 12 Nov, 10:00 | 680 MW | 658 MW |
| 12 Nov, 11:00 | 670 MW | 649 MW |
| 12 Nov, 12:00 | 665 MW | 641 MW |
| 12 Nov, 13:00 | 637 MW | 639 MW |
| 12 Nov, 14:00 | 653 MW | 640 MW |
| 12 Nov, 15:00 | 669 MW | 632 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (576 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
World Power Monitor. (2026). Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/
World Power Monitor. Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cy_2026,
title = {{Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/
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