Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Calabria was off by 10.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 40% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Calabria was off by 10.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 40% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Calabria came 41 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 59 MW, against average demand of 604 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 58% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error10.1%

Bias+4.0%

Hours within 5%40%

Worst miss398 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+19 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,030 MW, reported 632 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Calabria over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00	732 MW	680 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	784 MW	798 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	812 MW	765 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	854 MW	770 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	862 MW	785 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	884 MW	790 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	848 MW	790 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	799 MW	748 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	726 MW	653 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	657 MW	518 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	613 MW	475 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	587 MW	433 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	573 MW	423 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	557 MW	415 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	556 MW	423 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	584 MW	453 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	638 MW	555 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	725 MW	675 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	719 MW	718 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	733 MW	678 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	706 MW	665 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	699 MW	643 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	697 MW	643 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	696 MW	655 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	725 MW	693 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	753 MW	735 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	732 MW	768 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	815 MW	788 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	823 MW	818 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	844 MW	833 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	784 MW	803 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	739 MW	740 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	695 MW	665 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	637 MW	568 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	536 MW	520 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	468 MW	495 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	454 MW	483 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	441 MW	493 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	436 MW	493 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	457 MW	495 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	493 MW	558 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	572 MW	615 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	672 MW	675 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	658 MW	670 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	665 MW	650 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	677 MW	660 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	678 MW	630 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	689 MW	585 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	737 MW	600 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	737 MW	638 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	693 MW	663 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	764 MW	715 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	781 MW	740 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	807 MW	768 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	779 MW	745 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	737 MW	695 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	699 MW	635 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	612 MW	565 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	516 MW	488 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	442 MW	448 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	425 MW	433 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	405 MW	438 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	398 MW	438 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	412 MW	433 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	420 MW	428 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	439 MW	493 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	530 MW	555 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	527 MW	563 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	555 MW	563 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	550 MW	565 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	585 MW	590 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	577 MW	573 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	635 MW	558 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	655 MW	590 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	650 MW	610 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	726 MW	625 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	750 MW	663 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	758 MW	680 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	738 MW	680 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	699 MW	655 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	660 MW	625 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	614 MW	528 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	471 MW	470 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	433 MW	448 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	428 MW	435 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	418 MW	425 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	419 MW	423 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	449 MW	435 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	547 MW	523 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	638 MW	633 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	725 MW	733 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	703 MW	705 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	672 MW	693 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	684 MW	715 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	669 MW	698 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	643 MW	688 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	651 MW	733 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	760 MW	748 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	777 MW	758 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	819 MW	795 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	853 MW	815 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	855 MW	840 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	831 MW	798 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	765 MW	740 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	686 MW	680 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	621 MW	603 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	529 MW	508 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	492 MW	463 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	472 MW	453 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	453 MW	435 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	437 MW	435 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	474 MW	483 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	564 MW	578 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	682 MW	675 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	753 MW	723 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	753 MW	693 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	750 MW	708 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	759 MW	700 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	773 MW	673 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	737 MW	685 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	703 MW	773 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	703 MW	803 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	720 MW	810 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	781 MW	810 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	798 MW	820 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	859 MW	843 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	848 MW	800 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	763 MW	770 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	655 MW	703 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	571 MW	590 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	490 MW	508 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	449 MW	450 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	431 MW	440 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	424 MW	450 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	433 MW	448 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	479 MW	483 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	558 MW	583 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	641 MW	673 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	700 MW	733 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	703 MW	688 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	655 MW	658 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	650 MW	655 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	662 MW	638 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	651 MW	640 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	690 MW	668 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	712 MW	738 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	743 MW	770 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	810 MW	848 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	841 MW	870 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	852 MW	873 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	818 MW	830 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	719 MW	770 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	622 MW	708 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	558 MW	640 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	485 MW	530 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	466 MW	488 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	424 MW	470 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	428 MW	468 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	435 MW	460 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	476 MW	493 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	548 MW	550 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	634 MW	695 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	707 MW	753 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	707 MW	738 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	717 MW	723 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	708 MW	718 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	653 MW	708 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	617 MW	693 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_cala_2026,
  title = {{Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/}
}

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Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related