North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 14 October to 11 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 638 hours from 14 October to 11 November 2026, and 49% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Skopje).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 638 hours from 14 October to 11 November 2026, and 49% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, North Macedonia came 39 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 53 MW, against average demand of 694 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 42% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

638 hours from 14 October to 11 November 2026

Average error8.3%

Bias-2.7%

Hours within 5%49%

Worst miss374 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-21 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 318 MW, reported 691 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-11. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 11 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for North Macedonia over the last 7 days of the window, to 11 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-11

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 00:00	780 MW	756 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	698 MW	679 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	646 MW	630 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	609 MW	582 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	595 MW	582 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	627 MW	636 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	684 MW	692 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	720 MW	737 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	760 MW	764 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	779 MW	764 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	769 MW	751 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	741 MW	742 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	766 MW	756 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	878 MW	879 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	907 MW	914 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	914 MW	930 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	932 MW	928 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	959 MW	964 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	963 MW	922 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	953 MW	908 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	942 MW	919 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	916 MW	869 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	957 MW	968 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	895 MW	892 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	801 MW	823 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	708 MW	728 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	675 MW	704 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	639 MW	664 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	622 MW	646 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	649 MW	679 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	664 MW	696 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	664 MW	681 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	607 MW	631 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	502 MW	549 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	429 MW	499 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	372 MW	444 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	337 MW	442 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	446 MW	581 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	572 MW	712 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	732 MW	832 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	845 MW	887 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	901 MW	845 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	924 MW	841 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	919 MW	841 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	913 MW	838 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	886 MW	853 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	923 MW	851 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	879 MW	828 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	804 MW	805 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	728 MW	722 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	677 MW	673 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	640 MW	635 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	631 MW	631 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	660 MW	666 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	667 MW	672 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	597 MW	629 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	470 MW	544 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	377 MW	469 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	339 MW	424 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	328 MW	383 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	341 MW	405 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	515 MW	569 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	694 MW	715 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	827 MW	839 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	915 MW	874 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	947 MW	950 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	962 MW	955 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	958 MW	946 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	941 MW	952 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	914 MW	930 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	956 MW	979 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	923 MW	939 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	855 MW	833 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	789 MW	749 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	723 MW	687 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	680 MW	639 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	670 MW	632 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	692 MW	650 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	684 MW	646 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	609 MW	604 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	511 MW	548 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	443 MW	539 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	386 MW	527 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	378 MW	500 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	437 MW	524 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	537 MW	618 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	660 MW	752 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	848 MW	915 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	936 MW	980 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	935 MW	989 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	944 MW	1,004 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	939 MW	1,005 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	947 MW	1,018 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	923 MW	997 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	896 MW	957 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	844 MW	877 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	738 MW	618 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	653 MW	505 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	635 MW	553 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	615 MW	521 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	608 MW	505 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	630 MW	534 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	669 MW	552 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	745 MW	625 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	852 MW	663 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	909 MW	679 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	910 MW	672 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	932 MW	675 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	947 MW	688 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	1,038 MW	793 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	1,048 MW	833 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,012 MW	823 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	990 MW	803 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	999 MW	797 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	981 MW	809 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	964 MW	827 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	957 MW	856 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	929 MW	836 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	968 MW	878 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	907 MW	812 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	804 MW	805 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	722 MW	711 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	700 MW	699 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	675 MW	683 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	660 MW	681 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	677 MW	699 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	703 MW	740 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	728 MW	883 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	716 MW	819 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	703 MW	749 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	636 MW	699 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	594 MW	702 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	627 MW	705 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	856 MW	815 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	946 MW	921 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	938 MW	961 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	948 MW	949 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	967 MW	964 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	971 MW	959 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	956 MW	953 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	946 MW	956 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	918 MW	931 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	963 MW	984 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	909 MW	934 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	798 MW	800 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	706 MW	711 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	688 MW	678 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	661 MW	649 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	644 MW	639 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	652 MW	672 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	721 MW	725 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	728 MW	736 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	738 MW	725 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	734 MW	684 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	709 MW	632 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	659 MW	590 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	668 MW	585 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	750 MW	706 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	841 MW	778 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	890 MW	868 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	915 MW	904 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	932 MW	935 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	933 MW	934 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	925 MW	935 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	918 MW	958 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	891 MW	932 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	936 MW	978 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	889 MW	922 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (638 of 696 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-11. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_mk_2026,
  title = {{North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-11. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/

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North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 14 October to 11 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related