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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 8,468 MW (12.0%) too low at 11 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Berlin).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 8,468 MW (12.0%) too low at 11 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Germany and Luxembourg came 26 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 2,047 MW, against average demand of 56,552 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 15% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.5%
Bias-3.0%
Hours within 5%75%
Worst miss8,468 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,773 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 8,468 MW (12.0%) too low at 11 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 62,335 MW, reported 70,803 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Germany and Luxembourg day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Germany and Luxembourg over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 5 Nov, 13:006 Nov, 13:007 Nov, 13:008 Nov, 13:009 Nov, 13:0010 Nov, 13:0011 Nov, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Germany and Luxembourg over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 13:0065,227 MW63,479 MW
5 Nov, 14:0063,475 MW62,577 MW
5 Nov, 15:0062,604 MW62,326 MW
5 Nov, 16:0062,603 MW62,658 MW
5 Nov, 17:0065,721 MW64,247 MW
5 Nov, 18:0065,606 MW65,153 MW
5 Nov, 19:0064,473 MW63,970 MW
5 Nov, 20:0061,940 MW60,852 MW
5 Nov, 21:0059,554 MW57,674 MW
5 Nov, 22:0056,819 MW54,045 MW
5 Nov, 23:0053,967 MW50,169 MW
6 Nov, 00:0051,387 MW48,903 MW
6 Nov, 01:0050,456 MW47,312 MW
6 Nov, 02:0050,398 MW46,957 MW
6 Nov, 03:0051,630 MW47,051 MW
6 Nov, 04:0052,962 MW48,137 MW
6 Nov, 05:0055,519 MW51,647 MW
6 Nov, 06:0060,950 MW57,772 MW
6 Nov, 07:0065,053 MW63,155 MW
6 Nov, 08:0067,077 MW65,802 MW
6 Nov, 09:0068,396 MW66,128 MW
6 Nov, 10:0069,069 MW66,555 MW
6 Nov, 11:0069,026 MW66,431 MW
6 Nov, 12:0069,487 MW64,917 MW
6 Nov, 13:0068,264 MW62,815 MW
6 Nov, 14:0065,292 MW61,820 MW
6 Nov, 15:0064,999 MW61,962 MW
6 Nov, 16:0066,072 MW63,178 MW
6 Nov, 17:0067,097 MW64,754 MW
6 Nov, 18:0066,707 MW65,240 MW
6 Nov, 19:0065,808 MW63,821 MW
6 Nov, 20:0062,276 MW60,669 MW
6 Nov, 21:0059,609 MW57,414 MW
6 Nov, 22:0056,811 MW54,177 MW
6 Nov, 23:0053,417 MW50,741 MW
7 Nov, 00:0051,250 MW48,163 MW
7 Nov, 01:0048,974 MW46,241 MW
7 Nov, 02:0048,624 MW45,186 MW
7 Nov, 03:0048,088 MW44,748 MW
7 Nov, 04:0047,773 MW44,870 MW
7 Nov, 05:0048,028 MW45,362 MW
7 Nov, 06:0048,761 MW47,153 MW
7 Nov, 07:0051,502 MW49,670 MW
7 Nov, 08:0055,086 MW52,801 MW
7 Nov, 09:0058,055 MW54,861 MW
7 Nov, 10:0059,580 MW55,877 MW
7 Nov, 11:0060,354 MW56,311 MW
7 Nov, 12:0060,382 MW55,566 MW
7 Nov, 13:0058,921 MW54,248 MW
7 Nov, 14:0057,396 MW53,258 MW
7 Nov, 15:0057,388 MW53,427 MW
7 Nov, 16:0058,272 MW54,859 MW
7 Nov, 17:0060,145 MW56,098 MW
7 Nov, 18:0059,646 MW56,822 MW
7 Nov, 19:0058,309 MW55,857 MW
7 Nov, 20:0055,587 MW53,244 MW
7 Nov, 21:0053,148 MW51,139 MW
7 Nov, 22:0051,284 MW48,961 MW
7 Nov, 23:0048,929 MW46,028 MW
8 Nov, 00:0045,879 MW44,442 MW
8 Nov, 01:0044,205 MW42,655 MW
8 Nov, 02:0043,651 MW42,150 MW
8 Nov, 03:0043,780 MW41,809 MW
8 Nov, 04:0044,448 MW42,047 MW
8 Nov, 05:0044,353 MW43,432 MW
8 Nov, 06:0045,118 MW45,556 MW
8 Nov, 07:0046,862 MW48,184 MW
8 Nov, 08:0049,844 MW50,701 MW
8 Nov, 09:0052,423 MW52,777 MW
8 Nov, 10:0054,559 MW54,578 MW
8 Nov, 11:0056,141 MW55,585 MW
8 Nov, 12:0056,162 MW54,336 MW
8 Nov, 13:0054,720 MW52,881 MW
8 Nov, 14:0053,938 MW52,379 MW
8 Nov, 15:0053,826 MW53,583 MW
8 Nov, 16:0055,519 MW55,147 MW
8 Nov, 17:0058,682 MW56,987 MW
8 Nov, 18:0058,580 MW58,069 MW
8 Nov, 19:0057,544 MW57,540 MW
8 Nov, 20:0055,476 MW55,274 MW
8 Nov, 21:0053,598 MW53,362 MW
8 Nov, 22:0052,500 MW51,287 MW
8 Nov, 23:0050,699 MW48,598 MW
9 Nov, 00:0048,921 MW46,047 MW
9 Nov, 01:0047,110 MW44,772 MW
9 Nov, 02:0047,333 MW44,459 MW
9 Nov, 03:0048,059 MW45,305 MW
9 Nov, 04:0049,857 MW47,261 MW
9 Nov, 05:0053,242 MW51,913 MW
9 Nov, 06:0061,060 MW59,475 MW
9 Nov, 07:0065,972 MW64,541 MW
9 Nov, 08:0068,128 MW67,301 MW
9 Nov, 09:0069,076 MW66,806 MW
9 Nov, 10:0069,897 MW65,471 MW
9 Nov, 11:0070,929 MW65,089 MW
9 Nov, 12:0071,308 MW63,977 MW
9 Nov, 13:0070,452 MW63,026 MW
9 Nov, 14:0068,787 MW63,146 MW
9 Nov, 15:0068,380 MW64,139 MW
9 Nov, 16:0068,225 MW66,298 MW
9 Nov, 17:0068,917 MW68,028 MW
9 Nov, 18:0069,010 MW68,061 MW
9 Nov, 19:0067,571 MW66,645 MW
9 Nov, 20:0064,693 MW63,467 MW
9 Nov, 21:0061,587 MW60,309 MW
9 Nov, 22:0058,390 MW57,358 MW
9 Nov, 23:0055,056 MW53,956 MW
10 Nov, 00:0051,795 MW51,322 MW
10 Nov, 01:0050,162 MW49,668 MW
10 Nov, 02:0050,445 MW49,007 MW
10 Nov, 03:0050,950 MW49,223 MW
10 Nov, 04:0051,865 MW50,368 MW
10 Nov, 05:0055,359 MW53,481 MW
10 Nov, 06:0062,537 MW59,338 MW
10 Nov, 07:0066,732 MW63,697 MW
10 Nov, 08:0068,456 MW65,691 MW
10 Nov, 09:0069,690 MW66,047 MW
10 Nov, 10:0070,752 MW64,845 MW
10 Nov, 11:0071,388 MW63,487 MW
10 Nov, 12:0071,001 MW64,345 MW
10 Nov, 13:0070,683 MW63,980 MW
10 Nov, 14:0068,822 MW64,424 MW
10 Nov, 15:0068,586 MW64,574 MW
10 Nov, 16:0068,014 MW66,242 MW
10 Nov, 17:0070,416 MW67,888 MW
10 Nov, 18:0071,372 MW68,268 MW
10 Nov, 19:0069,988 MW67,101 MW
10 Nov, 20:0066,249 MW64,286 MW
10 Nov, 21:0062,178 MW61,129 MW
10 Nov, 22:0058,265 MW57,577 MW
10 Nov, 23:0054,697 MW53,819 MW
11 Nov, 00:0051,673 MW50,799 MW
11 Nov, 01:0050,236 MW49,274 MW
11 Nov, 02:0049,463 MW48,921 MW
11 Nov, 03:0050,526 MW48,441 MW
11 Nov, 04:0051,542 MW50,129 MW
11 Nov, 05:0055,601 MW53,282 MW
11 Nov, 06:0062,312 MW59,420 MW
11 Nov, 07:0067,990 MW64,009 MW
11 Nov, 08:0070,693 MW66,005 MW
11 Nov, 09:0071,343 MW66,764 MW
11 Nov, 10:0071,547 MW65,078 MW
11 Nov, 11:0072,226 MW63,940 MW
11 Nov, 12:0071,846 MW63,878 MW
11 Nov, 13:0070,803 MW62,335 MW
11 Nov, 14:0069,951 MW62,499 MW
11 Nov, 15:0069,748 MW63,287 MW
11 Nov, 16:0070,766 MW64,910 MW
11 Nov, 17:0071,680 MW66,410 MW
11 Nov, 18:0071,483 MW66,707 MW
11 Nov, 19:0069,621 MW66,005 MW
11 Nov, 20:0065,745 MW63,007 MW
11 Nov, 21:0061,813 MW59,809 MW
11 Nov, 22:0058,356 MW56,293 MW
11 Nov, 23:0055,447 MW52,465 MW
12 Nov, 00:0051,648 MW49,006 MW
12 Nov, 01:0049,831 MW47,069 MW
12 Nov, 02:0049,498 MW46,347 MW
12 Nov, 03:0050,351 MW46,586 MW
12 Nov, 04:0051,988 MW47,982 MW
12 Nov, 05:0055,234 MW51,575 MW
12 Nov, 06:0061,220 MW57,590 MW
12 Nov, 07:0066,050 MW62,413 MW
12 Nov, 08:0067,693 MW65,255 MW
12 Nov, 09:0065,050 MW66,129 MW
12 Nov, 10:0069,435 MW66,203 MW
12 Nov, 11:0070,528 MW66,523 MW
12 Nov, 12:0070,108 MW65,790 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_de_lu_2026,
  title = {{Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/}
}

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